I was invited to speak about my blog and observations about the current political environment at a local Republican party club meeting in May of 2016.
This was right at the point that Donald Trump looked to have wrapped up the votes needed to be the Republican party nominee for President that year.
The meeting was attended by most of the local, county and area Republican officeholders.
In short, officeholders that were almost all beholden to the Republican establishment.
They all viewed themselves as the Republican party.
I saw the discomfort in most of them that night as they attempted to process the fact that the outsider, Donald Trump, was going to represent the Republican party in the 2016 election.
Keep in mind that the Ohio Governor at the time, John Kasich, had been the last to defiantly march on as a virulently anti-Trump candidate despite the fact that Trump won primary after primary election.
A main theme of my talk that night was raising the question as to whether "The Fourth Turning" had set the stage for the political success of Donald Trump.
You can read my blog post "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump" written on May 10, 2016 if you are interested.
I pointed out the uncanny list of themes that the authors of the book The Fourth Turning had predicted would make a successful political candidate as we entered that cycle of history.
Keep in mind that The Fourth Turning was published in 1997.
Those themes closely matched Trump's campaign rhetoric two decades later.
These were the winning trends from a political standpoint for a politician in The Fourth Turning according to the authors, Neil Howe and William Strauss.
- Calls to close the gap between rich and poor
- Reverse the decline of the middle class
- Expand children's programs relative to senior programs
- Restore an ethic of personal responsibility
- De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies
- Promote traditional values
- America will become more isolationist than today in it unwillingness to coordinate with other countries
- America will be less globally dependent than it is today with smaller cross-border trade and capital flows
- The economic role of government will shift toward far more spending on defense and public works than on elder care and debt service.
I then stated this.
Look at some of the words above and see if you don't agree that in some ways it seems as if Trump has a keen understanding of where we are and what people are looking for.
It is as if he is looking ahead and the Republican establishment can only see what is behind them.
"Decisive action". There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.
"Assert public authority." Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.
"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.
"Reverse the decline of the middle class." His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.
"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies." His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.
"Promote traditional values." "Make America Great Again."
"More isolationist." Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.
"Less globally dependent". His attacks on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.
"Defense and Infrastructure." Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech.
When I went over all of this in my speech I could see the obvious unease among the Republican officeholders in the room rise even further.
At the time, the Republican establishment in Ohio and elsewhere were saying that Trump did not represent the Republican party.
The Republican officeholders in that room were soon going to have to decide whether they were on or off the Trump Train.
There was real risk in choosing whether they were with him or against him especially considering that their Governor was against him. The decision they made could end up being a career-ender.
Seeing all of this I told them I understood the difficult position they were in.
However, I reminded them of one important fact.
The people are sovereign in our system. Their power is absolute Unfortunately, too many people don't believe it. The simple fact is that politicians have no power unless the people provide it.
Laws that do not have public backing do not survive over the long term. Lawmakers who make laws that people do not support do not stay in office very long. Politicians who do not do the will of the people soon need to find other employment.
The reality was that the Republican officeholders did not determine what the Republican party stood for---the people who vote do.
I told them that I did not know whether Trump would win or not in November.
The only thing I knew for sure was that if he won the Republican party would change with him whether they liked it or not.
And that would be the case until the people decided they no longer backed Donald Trump and his agenda.
As it turned out, no truer words were ever spoken to that group.
Trump ended up winning Ohio in the general election by 8 points in 2016.
He proved he not only had a majority of Ohio Republican voters but an absolute majority of all Ohio voters supporting his "Make America Great Again: policies.
He won by 8 points again in 2020 and by 11 points in 2024.
Nobody hears anything about John Kasich anymore.
Trump has transformed the Republican party in his own image.
The transformation is even more profound than what we witnessed in the Reagan Revolution.
Consider what has just transpired over the last month.
Five incumbent Republican state senators who voted against a House redistricting plan that would have favored Republicans were defeated in primary elections when Trump endorsed the challengers.
A sixth incumbent Republican defeated a challenger by a mere 3 votes in which a recount has been requested.
Incumbent Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy placed third in a Republican primary to Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow and challenger John Fleming who will face off in a runoff election next month.
Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in the impeachment related to January 6th.
Republican 7-term Congressman Thomas Massie from Kentucky was defeated in a primary election against Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein.
Massie had invoked anger from many for voting against major Trump agenda items including the Big Beautiful Bill and the Border Wall.
Finally, four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated in the Texas Republican Senate primary last night after Trump endorsed Ken Paxton.
The headline from The New York Times this morning.
 |
| Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/us/politics/texas-republican-senate-cornyn-paxton.html |
Paxton won 64%-36% despite reportedly being outspent 10:1.
That alone tells you the value of Trump's endorsement.
Some argue that Trump should not be interceding against members of his own party.
He should not be using his power to oust members of his own party.
They are missing the point.
Trump is powerless by himself in these situations.
The voters have all the power.
They were not happy that these incumbents did not support Trump or his agenda.
Trump has transformed the Republican party in the last 10 years since he entered politics in a way few could have imagined was possible.
He did not do it himself.
Trump understood better than anyone that people were not looking to see "business as usual' in Washington.
However, Trump can only deliver a message. The muscle comes from people who vote.
Trump is like a General. He can put together a battle plan but it will only succeed if the soldiers carry out the plan.
Unlike many other countries, in the United States the people do not have not to just submit to their leaders. They have the power to do as they choose.
Those soldiers also do not have to fear being punished, court martialed or shot if they choose to not align with the plan
In the end, Trump will only succeed on the issues when the people have his back.
Trump may be the General but the voters are the King.
The loss of those who crossed Trump sends a message to all of the other Republicans.
Cross him and his agenda and you put your political future at risk.
The last month shows that Trump still has the support of the vast majority of Republicans.
However, a recent Fox News poll shows that Trump's overall approval among Republicans has dropped to 80% amid a slide with all voters to a new low of 36%.
 |
| Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-pain-deepens-disapproval-trump-hits-new-high |
Underlying that disapproval is 77% of all voters in that poll saying the economy is in bad shape.
That poll finding is supported by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey that recently hit its lowest level ever.
I wrote in my last blog that no one should take the economic sentiments in those polls seriously.
They are not based on current economic reality.
The polls are really only measuring political sentiment.
There is little doubt that Trump has suffered as a result of the Iran conflict thus far.
Gas prices up. Inflation ticking up as a result.
The on again, off again messaging on whether there is a deal or no deal with Iran only creates further confusion and lack of confidence in voters.
The only saving grace for Trump right now is that voters in almost all polls view the Democrats just as unfavorably as the President.
Trump's overall net favorability according to the Real Clear Politics composite average is -18.5% compared to -18.8% for Democrats. Republicans generally are -17.1%.
The voters do not view any politician favorably right now.
We also are almost six months from the midterm elections.
Six months is an eternity in politics.
A lot can happen between now and November.
The only thing that is certain is that people are sovereign in our system.
They will make the final call on the type of leaders they want whether or not they are the leaders they need.
The bigger question right now might be who wins if the voters are unhappy with all of their choices?
No comments:
Post a Comment