The HInge of History

It has been said that history is written by the winners and victors.

Losers do not often get the chance to write history books.

Napoleon said it as did Churchill.

Donald J. Trump sits on the hinge of history right now.

What happens in Iran over the coming months will either place Trump among the most consequential Presidents in the modern era 

OR

His legacy will be defined by a failed attempt to confront Iran and remake the geopolitical future of the Middle East.

Trump literally sits astride a hinge of history that could go either way.

Whether he likes it or not, the final verdict on Trump's legacy will be defined by Iran.

If Trump is successful in neutering Iran, its terrorist meddling in the Middle East, providing more freedom to the Iranian people and denying them a nuclear weapon, he will be the winner and history will treat him exceedingly well.

If the Iranian regime survives relatively intact, the Middle East continues to be a hot mess, the Iranian people continue to suffer and the nuclear threat is not definitively quashed, Trump will be end up being compared to Jimmy Carter rather than Abraham Lincoln or FDR.

The hinge of history can swing either way as I write this.

And it could swing widely either way.

Trump took a huge gamble in confronting Iran.

Doing so took enormous courage that no one else in the world was willing to do over the last 47 years.

At this juncture, it bears repeating what I wrote at the beginning of the Iran conflict when the first bombs starting dropping.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not Afraid To Be Great

(published March 2, 2026)

Eight years ago, one year into Donald Trump's first term as President, I wrote this.

I don't know if Donald Trump will be a great President, average, or terrible when history is written.

What I do know is that you cannot be great unless you are not afraid to be great.

I also know that Donald Trump is not afraid to be great.

That has been proven to be even truer in Trump's second term.

Consider just a few examples over the last year.

Proceeding with his tariff strategy despite claims by almost all economists that it would lead to higher inflation and wreck the U.S. economy.

It hasn't.

Launching an audacious bombing mission last year to take out Iran's nuclear facilities.

Using U.S. Special Forces to snatch Venezuelan President Maduro and bring him to the United States for trial while also stopping the flow of oil from that country to Cuba and China.

Of course, the biggest of all bets was Trump partnering with Israel in the last few days to target Iran's military capabilities and its terror-supporting regime.

You could not put down a much bigger bet than that one.

If Trump is successful, the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism will be neutralized.

A potential nuclear and strategic threat will be eliminated.

The Middle East might actually find peace.

Israel might find itself secure.

The United States might be able to pull back its significant military presence in the region.

China, which has relied on cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela, may have to turn to the United States for oil to power its economy.

The Iranian people will be freed from the brutal theocracy they have had to endure for almost 50 years.

The benefits of Trump's move, as he would say, are HUUUUUGGE!

Of course, huge potential benefits invariably involve significant risks.

What happens if Iran's missiles do significant damage to the US Naval fleet?

Or to American allies such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or the UAE?

What if the world economy starts to teeter with an extended war?

What about the price of oil?

Or a crash in the stock market.

What if Iran retaliates with sleeper cells in the United States?

Any time you undergo military action there are second, third and fourth order effects that can occur.

Of course, great Presidents usually come about by facing great challenges. In many respects, the times make the man. It was certainly true with Washington, Lincoln and Roosevelt.

Greatness does not follow when taking the easy road. It only graces those who are not afraid of the challenge on the hard road.

Success is never assured. Trump may fail bigly. However, he is not afraid to be great. 

That in itself is a rare commodity.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The resolution of the Iran conflict has not gone as quickly as Trump forecasted at the outset.

The Iranian regime has also proven more resilient and sinister than expected.

After the initial bombing campaign, Trump figured he could negotiate a deal to get what he wants rather than bomb Iran back to the stone age.

It proved hard to negotiate when you were not sure who had the power in Iran to negotiate with and also have confidence the deal would be honored.

Iran clearly believes that they could delay, stall and wait out Trump in a test of wills.

Trump finally lost patience and resumed the bombing on Wednesday.

Someone blinked in the aftermath of the recent strikes and Trump called off another night of bombing on Thursday afternoon  claiming there is a deal.

Of course, we have heard that before.

Can we believe it?

Can we believe anything the Iranians say?

Will the nuclear material be removed from Iran?

Is it really going to change the behavior of the Iranian regime long term and bring stability to the region?

Can it be said that Donald Trump won when all is said and done?

Donald Trump is abreast the hinge of history.

The answers to those questions will likely determine Trump's place in history.

However, if I were Trump, I would not trust my legacy to any "deal" with Iran.

I would want an undisputed, inarguable, irrefutable victory.

Deals rarely are wins. 

The best ones are win-wins.

History thereby is written by two rather than by one.