Who should be Trump's VP?
Since both Biden and Trump have collected enough delegates to be the nominees for President of their respective parties, the only real question remaining is who will be the VP candidate on the Republican side in November.
Donald Trump is sure to tease and tantalize with various names over the next several months.
However, which name would provide Trump with the biggest boost in November?
As I see it, Trump should be looking at three main criteria in who would be the best VP candidate to run with.
First, the individual should clearly be ready and able to lead the country should it be required in the next four years.
Trump will be 78 years old in June. He appears in good health and is clearly more fit and has more vigor and vitality than Biden. However, it still must be remembered that Trump will be older in November, 2024 than Ronald Reagan was when he left office at the end of his second term.
Of course, Joe Biden is four years older than Trump as if anyone needs to be reminded as we watch as he feebly fumbles his way around day after day.
Second, Trump should be selecting someone who is young enough and capable enough to carry on the MAGA agenda going forward.
Trump will only be able to serve one more term. Therefore, it is important that Trump selects an individual that can be loyal to the Trump agenda through that remaining term but who is also seen as a worthy successor to carry on that agenda and legacy into the future.
Third, Trump needs to select someone who the establishment fears almost as much as they abhor Trump. Trump needs to understand that if he is re-elected the establishment will almost certainly be working from day one to remove him.
That risk is heightened if the VP successor is someone the establishment believes "they can work with". Simply stated, Trump needs a VP with a strong backbone that will not be afraid to stand up to the D.C. and media establishment.
A strong VP that is feared and fearless inoculates Trump from attempts to unseat him over the next four years. (This consideration is not an original thought of mine but I think it needs to be an important factor in Trump's selection process).
I believe one of the big reasons that the D.C. Democrat establishment has not pushed Joe Biden out of the 2024 race is Kamala Harris.
Biden's pick of Kamala as VP has boxed them in.
There is no question they can read the polls and see Biden's poor job approval.
They see that Biden is losing to Donald Trump in the overall poll results and in every key battleground state.
However, they fear putting Kamala on the ballot more than they fear the risk they take in keeping Biden in place. She is polling worse than Joe.
Let's take these three considerations and match these up with some of the names that we hear most often as potential VP candidates for Trump.
Those names are Tim Scott, Ben Carson, Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard, Doug Burgum, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tucker Carlson, Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis.
I have tried to be objective in my analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the potential candidates but in the end assessments like this always involve subjective judgments.
There is only one potential candidate I see as checking all the necessary boxes.
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.
Let's take a look at how I come to that conclusion looking at the three criteria above.
Ready and Prepared
DeSantis is ready and prepared. He was in Congress for three terms and is in his second term as the Governor of Florida which is the third most populous state in the union.
Kristi Noem served four terms in Congress and is also serving in her second term as Governor of South Dakota. However, South Dakota is not Florida. It ranks 46th in population with less than 1 million in population. Florida has seven counties larger than the entire state population of South Dakota.
Tim Scott has served in both Congress and the U.S. Senate but has no state executive experience.
Marco Rubio is in his third term as a U.S. Senator and was previously the Speaker of the Florida House. However, he also does not have any executive experience.
Tulsi Gabbard served four terms in the U.S. House as a Democrat.
Burgum is in his second term as Governor of North Dakota. He also was a successful businessman and is estimated to be worth over $1 billion.
Carson, Ramaswamy and Carlson have never been elected to any office.
None of the candidates is better prepared and ready to serve as VP than DeSantis.
Carry on the Legacy
An important consideration here is that the potential candidate must be philosophically aligned with the Trump agenda but also of an age that you project that they can be a force for at least the next 12 years (a four year Trump term and an additional two terms beyond).
On age alone, Ben Carson does not qualify. Carson will be 73 this year.
Burgum will be 68 this year.
No one proved more loyal to the Trump agenda during the GOP primary than Ramaswamy. He will be 39 later this year and has a long political runway ahead. However, he has never held elective office and many think he is not ready for prime time despite all of his gifts.
Tucker Carlson is aligned with the Trump agenda. He is at the right age (55) and would be a real out-of-the box pick by Trump. Rumor has it that Melania has urged Trump to select Tucker. However, he has never held elective office. It is hard to make the case that he is ready and prepared.
Rubio and Scott could both be described as lukewarm Trump supporters. Both ran against him for the GOP Presidential nomination. However, both have age on their side compared to some of the other potential VP's (Rubio is 53 this year., Scott is 59).
Tulsi Gabbard is the right age but spent her entire political life as a Democrat until recently. I can't see Trump trusting her with his legacy.
Kristi Noem is the right age (53) and is a strong conservative but is not battle tested. She also is currently dealing with bad press in light of the story that she shot one of the dogs on her farm at one point.
J.D. Vance might have the strongest attributes on this score. He is young (age 40), has been loyal to Trump for a long time and almost all of his policy positions have been very much aligned with Trump since he first ran for the Senate and was endorsed by Trump. His biggest negative is he has not even been in the Senate for two years at this point. However, that did not stop Barack Obama.
DeSantis is the right age (46 this year) and there is not much difference in his core principles and positions compared to Trump. In fact, that was probably a big reason he never could gain traction in the primary battle with Trump.
DeSantis is of the age he could serve four years as VP and another eight years in the Oval Office and still not be 60 years old. None of the other candidates can match his experience, his alignment with Trump on the important issues and his age in looking for someone to carry on a Trump legacy.
Is Feared and Fearless
The number of candidates who can be said to check this box is small.
Ramaswamy and Carlson have the attributes but neither has really been tested when it counts---in a political office when you are under fire from the establishment media. Ramaswamy showed he has the potential when he ran for the GOP nomination and Tucker showed a lot of backbone in standing up to the Fox News honchos but they have never really been in the ring of fire.
Vance also appears to have the necessary attributes but has never been tested on a national stage.
Again, DeSantis has shown he is not afraid to take a strong stand nor back down to the political, corporate or media establishments.
He got in the ring against Trump which was not easy.
He was the only high profile politician to challenge the Covid hysteria and apply common sense protocols when nobody else had the courage to do so.
He was not afraid to take on Disney when he had to.
He has not backed down when the media establishment has attacked him.
DeSantis gets a strong checkmark on the Feared and Fearless box.
DeSantis by a large margin
The analysis I did above shows that DeSantis should be Trump's VP by a large margin.
My analysis is supported by an Economist/YouGov poll in March that showed that DeSantis has the highest net approval to be Trump's VP of any of those polled in that survey.
This is the detailed demographic breakdown for DeSantis in that poll.
There is no group in which DeSantis does not poll well as Trump's running mate.
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| Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_mTlzQOB.pdf#page=73 |
Bill Mitchell,was a huge Trump supporter in the 2016 primaries and through the general election, He turned against Trump in the 2024 primaries and was a vocal advocate for DeSantis.
He makes a further argument for DeSantis as Trump's VP on Twitter.
It is hard to argue with Mitchell's reasoning.
To use a business analogy, Trump would be the CEO and DeSantis the COO.
Both men bring unique gifts that complement each other.
The obstacles to DeSantis becoming Trump's VP
The most obvious obstacle is that Trump did not take kindly to being challenged by DeSantis in the GOP primary.
Trump had endorsed DeSantis in the Republican primary to run for Governor in Florida in 2018.
When DeSantis narrowly won the general election Trump undoubtedly felt he had a major hand in getting DeSantis elected.
Trump viewed DeSantis as disloyal in running against him in 2024.
Trump (as he is known to do) said some nasty things about DeSantis in the campaign that may not be easy for the Florida governor to forget and forgive.
As I stated above, no one in the Republican Party has the potential political future ahead of them that Ron DeSantis has due to his combination of experience and age.
Signing on as Trump's VP carries with it the potential for big rewards as well but also carries big risks for DeSantis,
If a Trump/DeSantis ticket wins in November, DeSantis has the inside track for 2028.
However, he also takes the risk of further damaging his political brand if a Trump/DeSantis ticket were to lose in November.
It is a high stakes decision for DeSantis if Trump even asks him to join him as his VP candidate.
Another big obstacle is the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution which states that when an elector of any state votes in the electoral college at least one of either the President or Vice President candidates must be an inhabitant of another state than the elector.
The relevant wording of the 12th Amendment reads as follows as ratified on June 15, 1804.
I have bolded the key language.
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;
If Trump selects DeSantis (or Rubio) a constitutional issue is presented as they are both inhabitants of Florida which would preclude the electors in that state from voting for both Trump and DeSantis (or Rubio) as they are all inhabitants of Florida.
If the national electoral vote margin is large enough the fact that the Florida electors could not vote for Trump or DeSantis would not be a problem as they might have enough electoral votes anyway. However, we are talking about 30 electoral votes in Florida---the third largest state total.
If, for example, the Florida electors cast their votes for Trump but could not do so for DeSantis due to the 12th Amendment, and had to cast them for another Republican, in a close election there might not be any VP candidate that garners the 270 necessary electoral votes. In such an event, the VP would be selected by a vote in the U.S. Senate.
The solution is to have either Trump or DeSantis declare residency in a state other than Florida before the election. This would be similar to what Dick Cheney did when George W. Bush named him his VP candidate in 2000 and Cheney declared residency in Wyoming (where he previously lived) even though he had been living in Texas recent years.
It is doubtful that DeSantis or Rubio could justify moving out of Florida. They are lifelong residents of the state. They both still have school-age children. To do so, they would also have to resign their elected political offices representing the people of Florida.
On the other hand, Trump is a life-long New Yorker and also has a residence at his club in Bedminster, New Jersey that he often inhabits in the summer.
Would Trump be willing to change his residence back to the Northeast to accommodate having DeSantis or Rubio on the ticket with him?
It would be a huge sacrifice for Trump (just on the tax costs of doing so alone) to leave Florida.
However, I actually believe that it would be hugely beneficial for Trump from a political perspective.
The Democrats like to portray Trump as egocentric and selfish.
Moving out of the state in order to insure the very best person can be on the ticket in conformance with the U.S. Constitution would make a huge statement. It would be a selfless act where Trump clearly shows he is putting the national interests ahead of any personal interests.
It would completely counter the Democrat narrative about Trump's ego and selfishness although you can be sure that the Democrats would argue that Trump and the Republicans are playing games with the Constitution.
The Betting Odds
Irrespective of the logic and common sense of a Trump-DeSantis ticket, the obstacles seem too great to overcome to make it a reality.
That seems to be reinforced by the latest political betting odds.
There are not many who are willing to put their money down on Trump selecting DeSantis as his running mate at the current time.
DeSantis is at 2 cents. For context, Nikki Haley is at 3 cents.
DeSantis is at a 2% chance on this betting site.
Interestingly, Doug Burgum does not even show up on this betting site. If you believe it will be Burgum I guess you just bet "Other Man".
In the end, Trump's VP will not be determined by my analysis or the betting markets.
It is fun to speculate or guess. about Trimp's VP pick
You can be sure that Trump will play it out for as long as he can as the speculation leads to more air time and discussion about Trump and his campaign.
However, in the end, Donald Trump alone will make the decision and that means all bets are off.
There is only one thing that is certain.
Trump's selection will be better than that of Joe Biden's choice of Kamala Harris four years ago.
That is any easy bet to make.
