Looking Back In Time

At times like these, when the speed of events is moving so quickly, it is difficult to look back in time to put everything in context.

Let's take a look back and see what I am talking about. In many respects, if we look back only three months ago, it seems like an eternity.

The U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump on December 18, 2019. Little did anyone know that a virulent virus was already circulating around Wuhan, China at the same time.

Nancy Pelosi delayed sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate in an attempt to pressure Mitch McConnell to modify the Senate rules on the impeachment trial that had been adopted for the impeachment trial of Bill Clinton two decades earlier.

That gambit failed but it resulted in start of the Senate trial being delayed. The articles were finally delivered on January 15. The trial in the Senate began a week later on  January 22. This was probably a delay of two weeks beyond when it normally would have started if Pelosi would have delivered the articles of impeachment immediately after the House voted in December.

Alex Azar, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, has stated that the CDC first became aware of the Chinese virus on January 3. Offers of assistance and medical support were offered to the Chinese by the United States but were rebuffed.

On January 14 the World Health Organization (WHO) was quoting Chinese authorities that there was "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission" of coronavirus.

Those Chinese authorities clearly were misleading (lying to?) the WHO and the rest of the world.

On January 22 the first case of the Chinese virus was confirmed in the United States. Ironically, that was the same day that the Senate trial began on the impeachment of Donald Trump.

It was only nine days later on January 31 (in the middle of his impeachment trial) that President Trump announced his restrictions on travel from China into the United States.

Remember that Trump did this in the middle of the Senate impeachment trial when he had to know he was going to be roundly criticized by Democrats and those in the mainstream media. He did it any way to predictable results. (Hat tip to @lyndseyfifield for the research for the four following examples of how the press castigated Donald Trump at the time he announced the China travel ban).

New York Times, January 31, 2020

The media quoted so-called public health experts who said that this was exactly the incorrect response.

Credit: StatNews

This then created a narrative from the media that Trump was not following the "science" but following the lead of conservative lawmakers and "far-right" supporters.

The Washington Post basically took the Communist Chinese talking points in slamming the President and pointed out that Trump was disregarding the WHO's recommendations against travel restrictions. Yes, the same WHO who stated two weeks earlier that there was no clear evidence that coronavirus could be transmitted through human to human transmission.

The WHO said that restricting travel or trade would not help. Where are they on that opinion now?

Credit: Washington Post, 1/31/20

What did Joe Biden have to say about Trump's actions at the time?

“This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia,” Biden said during an Iowa campaign event right after Trump announced the China travel restrictions. Biden also said at the time that Trump was "fear mongering".


What about Chuck Schumer?

Let me remind you again that President Trump took this action and had to take all of this criticism during the middle of the impeachment trial.

Donald Trump was not formally acquitted on the two articles of impeachment until February 5.

It is pretty remarkable when you think about it.

How many others would have had the courage to do what Trump did knowing he was going to be called a racist, a xenophobe and fear monger in the course of his impeachment trial?

We now know that Trump's decision was one the most important and consequential decisions that was ever made by a President under the circumstances. It would have been easy to hunker down and do nothing in light of the impeachment trial. I am sure he was told by many advisors to do just that.

If you doubt the importance of that decision look at the current statistics of Europe compared to the United States. Europe did not restrict flights from China as Trump did. Italy did do it the day after Trump but the rest of Europe stayed open. People in Europe could also travel freely within the EU.

The United States has seen confirmed cases increase dramatically the last few days as testing ramps up. However, the differences between Europe and the United States regarding coronavirus case loads and deaths are dramatic.

A lot of the difference has to be traced back to the China travel ban.

(All data from WorldOMeters.com as of 3/20/20, 22;10 GMT)
EU countries considered in numbers below--Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Norway, Sweden, Denmark) The population of these countries is approximately the same as that of the United States.

EU confirmed cases    119,141
US confirmed cases      18,876

EU deaths                       7,048
US deaths                          237

I have stated before that I think that Trump waited too long in banning travel from Europe.

Say what you want about President Trump but he is not a conformist in the way most politicians are. He is not afraid to separate himself from the herd. He has done it a number of times on a number of issues.

However, he is not immune from the pull of conformity and the target you become when you don't follow the herd. For example, for several weeks I have believed that flights from Europe (especially Italy) should have been banned. We are now learning from the CDC that 70% of all new cases in the United States have been traced back to Europe. 

It is not easy separating yourself from the herd. It goes against most human instincts. It always feels safer and secure to conform. After all, there has always been much greater risk to stray from the herd or crowd. 

Why didn't President Trump shut off flights from Europe earlier? Do you think the earlier heat he took on China might have had something to do with that? We shut the door on China but left the backdoor open with Europe. We are paying the price for that now.

Of course, the criticism of President Trump now is that he did not act strongly enough and early enough. Or he is peddling false hope and optimism. We are starting to hear that he is listening too much to the scientists and not enough to the economists.

Of course, we don't know how much the entire impeachment fiasco might have resulted in some level of distraction and disruption within the White House that might have allowed for better preparations.

Anyone can be a Monday morning quarterback. Even me.

However, I think the record above shows that Donald Trump has navigated this about as well as any human being could with imperfect facts and data.

We should all pray that he will continue to be blessed with the discernment and decision making necessary to continue to protect the people of the United States of America.

Surreal Is Our New Reality

I could call it surreal.

However, it is our new reality.

It is stunning the extent that which our lives have been transformed in the last 10 days.

Surreal is our new reality. All sporting events cancelled. Schools closed. Cruise lines shut down. Air travel at a near standstill. Restaurants and bars shut down. Shopping malls closed. Millions trying to work from home. Millions of others suddenly out of work.

I wrote this on January 31 when we were barely a week past the first coronavirus case being reported in the United States.

We often don't realize the precarious perch that our lives are built on. A lot of that is based on the confidence that underlies our economic system. It doesn't take much to disrupt that equilibrium and the confidence that goes with it. When people don't have the confidence to do business, shop, travel and interact, the economy quickly tanks.

People are now realizing what I was talking about. I wish it were not true.

I have to believe that we will soon experience unemployment rates that will exceed anything that most of us have seen in our lifetimes.

If the current surreal reality continues for several months we may challenge some of the numbers seen in the Great Depression.

Jobless claims soared to 281,000 last week and that was before most of the restaurant, bar, store and theater closings that went into effect this week. We will soon these numbers in the millions.

Of course, I don't need to say anything about the stock market.

Over $12 trillion of value has been wiped out in less than a month in the United States alone. Global values have taken somewhere near a $25 trillion hit.

That value evaporated faster than in any stock market sell-off in history.

Washington is talking about a $1 trillion economic aid package. That seems like a lot until you put it into a broader perspective.

I have not heard many talk about it but we are surely blessed in all of this that we are taking this economic hit at a time when we were at an economic high. Stocks were at all-time highs. Unemployment was the lowest in almost half a century. It would be far, far worse having to deal with a poor economy and struggling stock market before we were hit with this pandemic.

For some context, here is the Dow over the last five years. Yes, it is bad, but imagine having to confront this in 2016. Or 2009?

There is a reason that pilots attempt to climb if they run into a problem in the air. It always helps to have as much altitude as you can when you are flying an airplane. The more altitude you have, the greater margin you have to overcome any issue, and the better chance you will have to land the aircraft safely. The strong economy over the last three years is a significant advantage for us compared to where we could be.

It is hard not to ask the question whether all of this surreal reality is worth it?

We will likely never know. Once a course is taken it is often impossible to consider the alternative. Whatever decision is made is quickly affected by other choices and actions that compound and don't permit one to easily determine if the "road not taken" might have actually been a better path. Mind you, I did not say easier. There are no easy roads whichever way we go right now.

I have no doubt that the public health professionals are making the best recommendations and decisions they can based on what data they have. However, the problem is that we are dealing with so many unknowns with this virus.

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center. In other words, he is someone that knows a whole lot more about this than I do.

In a recent opinion column Dr. Ioannidis questions whether we are dealing with a once-in-a century pandemic or a once-in-a century evidence fiasco due to the fact that big decisions are being made without reliable data.

At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.

Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?

I am persuaded that the current path we are on for this two week period makes the most sense right now since it is better to err on the side of caution.

However, how long can this be sustained and at what cost?

Even more than new therapeutics and vaccines, what we need most right now is better data to assess the threat and danger to society of the virus together with the ultimate economic cost that we may have to pay to combat it. Rationale minds need to then balance those two important factors as it relates to our society.

At one point is the cure worse than the disease?

How bad is Covid-19? We just don't know right now. It is still playing out.

However, the Visual Capitalist put together this excellent graphic to show the history of the world's greatest pandemics.

There truly is nothing new under the sun. Mankind has been challenged before and come out better on the other side. We will once again.

However, the human costs of most of these pandemics have been extraordinarily high in lives lost.

May we get the best data available as soon as possible to make sure that we are making the best decisions to limit the human costs, first and foremost. That is not necessarily easy as Dr, Ioannidis points out.

One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.

Surreal only works for so long. Every click of the clock the human cost will compound one direction or the other as relentlessly as the virus spreads in communities in the United States and the world.

We need better data if we are going to make better decisions.

The sooner the better. That is the real reality.

What Can I Do?

What can I do?

It is a question a lot of people are asking right now.

People can start with following the guidelines that the public health experts, the President and Governors have set out.

If you have been living under a rock perhaps you did not get the message. Here it is.

First and foremost, keep in mind that there are a number of people in this country that cannot stay at home because they are providing essential services to the rest of us---health professionals, police and fire, those people delivering goods to groceries and stores, those stacking shelves, people working at drug stores, gas stations and banks and those making sure your water, sewer, electricity and gas are working. I am even talking about those people in the plants making your toilet paper! They can't do their work at home. I have two members of my family that fall in the essential services category.

These people need to be protected. Those who are older and/or have serious health conditions have to be protected as well. If you are out and about carrying on as if your life is no different, you are putting all of these people at risk, not to mention yourself.

A few examples from the  last couple of days. You have to wonder what these people are thinking?

Clearwater Beach, Florida, Monday, March 16
Credit: WFLA.com

Bourbon Street, New Orleans Sunday, March 15
Credit: www.Nola.com, Sophia Gerner

Make no mistake, most people are doing what they are supposed to do. They are quarantined at home, isolating at home or working from home.

We are all in a completely different world than we were a week ago.

What do people do with more free time at home as they wait this out? Even if they are now working from home they have undoubtedly picked up some additional free time that they used to expend on their daily commute.

What can you do with this extra time?

Kansas basketball coach Bill Self has a lot of extra time on his hands now that the NCAA basketball tournament has been cancelled for his #1 ranked Jayhawks.

He was asked in a recent telephone interview what he was going to do with all his free time?

“Well, I’ve been told I’m going to clean out the garage and my closet,” Self said with a laugh during a conference call, adding, “That’ll take a couple days right there.”

I can relate.

Mrs. BeeLine has been after me for several years to get down in the basement and go through a number of boxes that I had brought home after I moved out of my office downtown in my former life.

Of course, I have always had something better to do.

My excuses ended this week.

Today I went through a box and found a rolodex filled with hundreds and hundreds of business cards I had accumulated over the years.

Of course, I was not going to just throw all those cards away. Many of those cards dated back well before people just started exchanging contact information on their iPhones. As I worked my way through the cards I had fond memories of so many people I had crossed paths with over the years.

Yes, there were some cards I had that were sales people who had called on me once that I did not remember. Or someone who I had met fleetingly after I gave a speech somewhere. However, there were so many people in that rolodex that I had crossed paths with that made my life richer. That encouraged me to call a few people whose cards I came across to reconnect and see how they were doing. I highly recommend taking the time to do something similar during these trying times.

Mrs. BeeLine is using her time to write letters to a number of dear friends we have had over the years in different parts of the country. It is a special gift she has and she has more time to do it right now.

I recently read that during the bubonic plague in 1665 the University of Cambridge in England closed its doors and sent its students home. (there truly is nothing new under the sun.) Isaac Newton (not yet a Sir) was a student at the school and used his time at home to develop many of the mathematical concepts now known as calculus. It is said that during this time he may have also been sitting under that apple tree that started him thinking about the law of gravity.

Shakespeare is also said to have written King Lear and Macbeth during other quarantine periods in London during other plagues.

You might not be able to top either of those with your time at home but here are a few other ideas that might be worth considering.

Focus more closely on your family.

Lean more into you faith.

Reflect on your life, your career, your future.

Start a journal in which you can share this experience with your children or grandchildren some day.

Go shopping for an elderly neighbor.

Buy a gift card or order takeout from some of your favorite restaurants.

The list is endless.

In fact, here is a more complete list that @LeighStorz shared on Twitter if you are asking "What can I do?" It appears that we owe the ultimate credit to some Aussies for this comprehensive list.

We are living in the most consequential and serious time in my lifetime That represents a lot of years. There are only a few alive today that saw anything comparable with World War II and the Great Depression.

We will get though this together. It is the only choice we have.

However, to get there we must each first ask ourselves, "What can I do?"

If you do that you most likely will find that the best answer probably does not involve you at all. It is all about the others that touch your life. Even if you have never met them.

For those of you who want to follow the latest data on Covid-19 in the United States I recommend that you visit CovidTracking.com for state by state data on total confirmed cases, total tests and deaths from the virus.

Here is the national data as of 3:48 pm on March 17.

53,270 tests performed, principally on people with symptoms, has resulted in a 10.7% positive infection rate. This indicates to me that there are many more cases of seasonal flu out there than there are of coronavirus right now. Of course, the same social distancing and quarantine advice applies to combat either virus.

The numbers in a few of the hot spot states are below. Thus far, over half of the confirmed cases and 66 of the 90 reported deaths in the United States are from these three states.

Stay informed. Stay safe.

Coronavirus and US

I first wrote about coronavirus and China on January 26. At that time the Chinese were admitting to about 2,700 cases and 80 deaths. At that time, there were 5 confirmed cases in the United States, all from people who had recently returned from Wuhan, China.

The most recent numbers in the United States (as of noon Sunday, March 15) are 2,952 cases and 57 deaths. By the time you read this the numbers will be higher.

In that post I wrote that the most effective way to stop an outbreak of a virus such as this one is to aggressively isolate and quarantine those that are ill so as to not infect other people. They need to be identified, treated aggressively by medical professionals, and isolated.

China failed in that effort in Wuhan by not closing down travel in and out of that city quickly enough. Millions left the city to travel during the Chinese New Year holiday. That allowed the virus to spread to other areas in China and ultimately all over the world.

This caused the Chinese to implement a massive and draconian quarantine program involving tens of millions of people in major population centers around the country. The Chinese locked down everything in the heavily affected areas and confined everyone but essential personnel to their homes. I wrote at the time that if there was anywhere on earth where that could be done successfully it was in Communist China.

If there is any place on earth where a quarantine and mass mobilization can be carried out to combat this disease it is in China where the totalitarian government has total control of the population.

This strategy appears to have worked for the Chinese but the virus had already escaped the country. Other countries that allow their citizens far more freedom are now faced with balancing individual rights and economic calamity with the need to curb the virus. There are no good choices.

Europe has now become the epicenter for the outbreak in the world. There have been over 8,000 new confirmed cases in Europe in the last day. 3,590 of those are in Italy alone.

Credit: WorldOMeter.com, 3/15/20, 18:22 GMT

To say that all of this is unprecedented in our lifetimes in an understatement. All sporting events cancelled. Schools closed. Cruise lines shut down. Flights from Europe shut down. Major retail stores announcing closures for several weeks (Apple and Nike). Runs on food and essentials at Costco and grocery stores.

Here are a couple of pictures I took at my neighborhood Kroger this morning.

Bread aisle at Kroger, March 15, 2020

Meat counter at Kroger, March 15, 2020

I did not bother taking a picture of the toilet paper and paper good aisle. It would be no surprise to you that it was empty.

What do I think is next?

I can't imagine we are far from banning all international flights into the country. It would not surprise me if domestic flights are suspended as well for some amount of time. At a minimum, flights to and from major areas of the outbreak---Seattle, California, New York City Metro---may be suspended. We may eventually see all travel in and out of hot spot areas suspended except for shipments of goods  and travel that is absolutely essential.

I would expect large shopping malls will close soon. Bars do not have much justification for remaining open right now. Restaurants are more essential but the question is how many can stay open with ever declining customers? (Ed note-since I wrote this earlier today Ohio and Illinois have announced the closure of all bars and restaurants. California is forcing bars and clubs to close. It is becoming a challenge making predictions of what is to come and staying ahead of the new realities.)

Of course, if restaurants are closed what additional pressure does that mean to the grocery store supply chain? I can guarantee that it will not be helpful.

The bottom line is that we may be getting to the point that only essential services will remain open for a period of time in many parts of the country.

The news is bad and it is likely to get worse.

Of course, the news has been a big reason that we have seen the public reaction and panic buying we have seen involving some items.

I thought this was an interesting chart that compares coronavirus coverage with other similar health-related stories.

Do you think that might have something to do with why there is no toilet paper and many food shelves are bare today?

Credit: Data Is Beautiful

Is there any good news?

In the United States, we have the advantage of being behind where Europe is right now in the pandemic. We will be able to watch and learn from them just as we have learned from China and South Korea.

Some have pointed out that the United States is following a trend line on new cases that is running about 11 days behind where Italy is.

For example, the chart below was published last Wednesday and shows cases in Italy and projects where the United States will be 11 days later. Notice that it projected the U.S. would be at around 3,000 cases today when we were at just 1,135 on Wednesday. This is very close to the 2,952 I saw reported earlier today.

Based on Italy's experience, it suggests the U.S. will be at 12,500 next Sunday 3/22. Keep an eye on this to see if this trend continues. We will undoubtedly see a spike in numbers in the U.S. if for no other reason than increased testing.

Notice also that Italy's cases have doubled (from 12,500 to 25,000) since Wednesday if you refer to the chart of the current cases above. If we stay on the same trend line, that would suggest the U.S. would be at 50,000 cases by the end of the month. I am going to keep that number in mind to see if we are bending the curve in any way with the most recent actions that have been taken.

Credit: Reddit.com

Bear in mind that Italy's population is only 60 million compared to the 330 million in the United States. The U.S. would need to have over 60,000 cases by next Sunday to be in the same position as Italy was last Wednesday on a per capita basis.

The most recent data from Italy also confirms that this virus is most dangerous for the elderly. These are the statistics of the first 780 deaths in Italy by age.

Credit: @ClayTravis

In light of  this data, the UK is said to be considering requiring all people over age 70 to stay in strict isolation at home for the next four months in keeping with a "wartime-style" response. This is being considered in order to prevent the government-run health service from "falling over" from cases among the elderly.

The primary reason the United States is concerned about the outbreak is also the potential pressure it will put on hospital beds, and in particular, critical care beds. While 80-85% of those who catch the virus will have mild symptoms, a large portion of the remainder may need intensive medical intervention in the ICU with ventilators, respirators, etc.

This is a capacity constrained resource in all countries.

Fortunately, the United States is also better equipped in this regard than most countries but it is not an unlimited resource. The system can quickly become overwhelmed as did China, Italy and Iran.

The other big advantage the United States has in the battle to combat the coronavirus was in evidence on Friday when President Trump showcased the public/private partnerships to deal with the crisis in a Rose Garden press conference.

President Trump announcing public/private initiative regarding Coronavirus testing
Credit:PBS

There is simply no other country in the world than can match the technological, pharmaceutical and medical resources that the United States can deploy in this fight.

If I am sure about anything it is the fact that we will meet the challenge because of these unique and unmatched intellectual and innovative resources that are the foundation of our free enterprise system.

As you consider your own personal interactions in the coming days, I thought the graph below was interesting in that it gives you an idea of your risk profile by attending a variety of events based on different infection rates that might be present in the population.

This graph was done for Colorado but it should be generally applicable to any population group. It clearly shows the wisdom of avoiding large gatherings.

One final amusing tweet that I saw yesterday in my Twitter feed.

Why in the world would Charmin think that they need to be advertising toilet paper right now?

I see that this ad was originally posted on February 21 but I would think those marketing and advertising experts at Procter & Gamble would have been a little more nimble in pulling this ad spending in light of recent events, don't you?

Do they really need to sell more product right now?

Stay safe...with or without toilet paper.

Conformity and Contagion

There are two fundamental truths about human beings that I always keep in mind.

First, the natural human condition is to be a conformist. People do not generally like to separate themselves too far from the herd.

Second, there is nothing more contagious than fear.

We are seeing both in vivid detail right now.

I was early in predicting that the Wuhan coronavirus would present a significant challenge to the world. These are passages that I wrote in January.

The most effective way to stop an outbreak of a virus such as this one is to aggressively isolate and quarantine those that are ill so as to not infect other people. They need to be identified, treated aggressively by medical professionals, and isolated.

There was no better place to do that than in a totalitarian country such as China. However, China waited too long, and despite drastic measures that affected hundreds of millions of people, the entire world is paying the price now.

The human impact of the virus is enormous but if the outbreak of the virus cannot be contained the economic impact will soon add another dimension to the human suffering.

We often don't realize the precarious perch that our lives are built on. A lot of that is based on the confidence that underlies our economic system. It doesn't take much to disrupt that equilibrium and the confidence that goes with it. When people don't have the confidence to do business, shop, travel and interact, the economy quickly tanks.

It was shortly after I wrote the last passage that President Trump announced on January 30 that he was restricting flights from China. It was criticized by many at that time as an overreaction.

Credit: New York Times, January 31, 2020

This was before Canada, Japan and South Korea and most EU countries did the same. At that time, most just advised their citizens to avoid non-essential travel to China. Italy suspended flights beginning on January 31. In retrospect, that was a couple of weeks too late considering the heavy travel patterns between China and Italy.

Say what you want about President Trump but he is not a conformist in the way most politicians are. He is not afraid to separate himself from the herd. He has done it a number of times on a number of issues.

However, he is not immune from the pull of conformity and the target you become when you don't follow the herd. For example, for several weeks I have believed that flights from Europe (especially Italy) should have been banned. We are now learning from the CDC that 70% of all new cases in the United States have been traced back to Europe. 

It is not easy separating yourself from the herd. It goes against most human instincts. It always feels safer and secure to conform. After all, there has always been much greater risk to stray from the herd or crowd. 

Why didn't President Trump shut off flights from Europe earlier? Do you think the earlier heat he took on China might have had something to do with that? We shut the door on China but left the backdoor open with Europe. We are paying the price for that now.

You often feel better and more secure in conforming and not sticking your head out from the crowd. It is harder to be called out or criticized if you are doing what everyone else is doing. However, the crowd you are following can sometimes be heading in the wrong direction.

This was demonstrated a few years ago in a research study at the University of Leeds conducted by Professor Jens Krause.

The study showed that it takes a minority of just five percent to influence a crowd's direction - and that the other 95 percent follow without even realizing what is going on.Professor Krause, with PhD student John Dyer, conducted a series of experiments in which groups of volunteers walked randomly around a large hall. Within the group, a few received instructions regarding where to walk. Participants were not allowed to communicate with one or intentionally influence anyone.

The findings in all cases revealed that the informed individuals were followed by the others in the crowd, forming a self-organizing, snake-like structure (or flock of sheep, take your pick). 

"We've all been in situations where we got swept along by a crowd," said Professor Krause. "But what's interesting about this research is that our participants ended up making a consensus decision despite the fact that they weren't allowed to talk or gesture to one another. In most cases the participants didn't realize they were being led by others at all." 

This is consistent with the observations of sales and motivation consultant, Cavett Robert, who I have quoted in these pages in the past.

“Since 95 percent of the people are imitators and only 5 percent initiators, people are persuaded more by the actions of others than by any proof we can offer.” 

                                                                       – Cavett Robert

If you need any proof of that assertion look no further than what has happened this week in the United States.

I wrote another blog post earlier this week where I mentioned that the Ohio's Governor Mike Dewine had recommended that all sporting events in the state be closed to the public and only viewed on tv. He also recommended all Ohio colleges eliminate in-person classes. Ohio State and other schools announced those actions a short time later

The MAC basketball championship quickly stated that it would ban all public attendance at games this week. The Big West conference followed suit. 

I wrote at the time that it would not take take much for this to go much further.

It would not surprise me to see the NCAA basketball tournament that is scheduled to begin next week end up with a similar fate. The first round play-in games are scheduled for Dayton, Ohio beginning on Tuesday. 

What about The Masters? Opening Day for major league baseball? NHL hockey and NBA basketball? It will not take much more before these will be tv events only. How far is this going to go?

The only real surprise to me is how fast it has occurred. I have barely been able to comprehend the news today as it was reported. Whatever you thought you knew was outdated within minutes by a more drastic cancellation or closure.

All conference basketball tournaments cancelled. 

NBA. NHL. MLB. MLS, NCAA Tournament. All games cancelled. The pros may yet play again this season but the college players are done.

No one wants to stand out from the crowd. Everyone is taking their cues from someone else. 

Broadway is closed as of tonight. How long until all movie theaters are closed?

We are seeing the same thing play out in other areas.

Which organization or company is going to want to have a business meeting or conference? Who is willing to go against the grain? Just the same, who was willing to cancel a meeting a month ago when most everyone else was still meeting? Very, very few. Why stand out from the crowd? I bet Biogen wishes they had done so.

Ohio's Dewine upped the ante again today banning all gatherings of over 100 people. That covers a lot of ground---casinos, theaters, arenas. large conference rooms, parades, festivals, etc in the state. It does exempt church services.

He also ordered all public and private schools to be closed for at least three weeks.

Keep in mind this is in a state with five confirmed cases at this time and no deaths.

I am not saying that all of this should not have been done. It may be exactly what is needed. Perhaps it should have been done two weeks ago. My point is that what has occurred in the last few days has resulted more by the pull of conformity than anything else. I was not science or statistics. Those did not change appreciably in the last couple of days. You can also be sure that many states will follow the lead of Dewine.

That is how powerful the force of conformity is in human beings. It also shows the importance of having the leaders and initiators among us making sound judgments and good decisions. If not, we will find ourselves on the wrong path. There are so many willing followers we better have great leaders to follow.

In addition, no matter how contagious Covid-19 is, it is nothing compared to the contagion of fear that surrounds everything and everyone right now. 

You see it in the stock market.

You see it in people stripping the shelves of toilet paper, paper towels, bottled water and hand sanitizers.

You see it in the conformity of actions this week.

Again, I warned of all of this in an earlier post several weeks ago. There really is nothing more contagious in human beings than fear and panic.  

Panic driven by the unknown right now seems to be a bigger danger to all of us than the virus. We have seen what happened to the stock market last week. Of course, financial markets loath uncertainty and we have seen that in volumes in the past week.

We have already seen international air travel drop dramatically. I would expect that we will soon see the same in domestic air travel. I would expect restaurants, bars, theaters and other venues that host large numbers of people around Seattle, and in places in California where cases have been identified, will see precipitous drops in business. Retail shops will also suffer except for grocery stores which may struggle to keep their shelves full due to panic buying.

We may see this story unfold across this country if the virus cannot be contained. It may get very, very ugly before it gets better. Most people will survive the virus. It is an open question how many will survive the potential economic fallout.

It has gotten very ugly. I have no doubt it will get even uglier.

However, the one thing I am certain of is that we will overcome all of this.

Human innovation and ingenuity are also key attributes of the human condition.

We will adapt, adjust and invent ways to deal with this threat. What has to be done, will be done, and it will be accomplished much quicker than most would predict at this time.

Stay safe...and sane. Just realize that the latter might be more difficult than the former right now.

Turns Ahead

It seems that the situation involving Covid-19 is about to get even more interesting.

Today we saw the announcement that a single corporate management meeting by Biogen that was held in Boston involving 175 managers from around the world (including Italy) is now known to be responsible for 70 of the 92 people infected by the virus in Massachusetts. Attendees at the meeting have also developed cases in other states.

Shortly thereafter Harvard University announced that it would no longer have face-to face classes and that all instruction would be online after the school returns from Spring Break.

Ohio State University and other schools made similar announcements today. I would expect this practice will be followed by hundreds of colleges soon.

Ohio's Governor recommended that all indoor events be closed to the general public. The Mid American Conference basketball championships this weekend in Cleveland will only be open to athletic officials, family and friends. The Big West Conference is doing the same.

It would not surprise me to see the NCAA basketball tournament that is scheduled to begin next week end up with a similar fate. The first round play-in games are scheduled for Dayton, Ohio beginning on Tuesday.

What about The Masters? Opening Day for major league baseball? NHL hockey and NBA basketball? It will not take much more before these will be tv events only. How far is this going to go?

Is all of this an overreaction? Possibly. However, look at the effects from that one business meeting in Boston. When dealing with the unknown it is far safer to err on the side of caution.

One of the challenges in dealing with what we are confronting right now with the global outbreak is how much is unknown about the virus.

This has resulted in widely divergent views. Some argue that all of it is overblown. They believe it is not much different than the ordinary flu.

There are others who are suggesting that this is the end times.

From my perspective, neither viewpoint is helping the situation.

What we are dealing with seems to be much more serious than the ordinary flu. Look at the extraordinary quarantine efforts that the Chinese initiated. Look no further than what is going on in Italy and Iran right now. Look at the effects from that one Biogen meeting.

At the same time, it increasingly looks as if the virus is really most lethal only to those who are elderly, frail or who have compromised immune systems. In fact, the CDC stated yesterday that Covid-19 appears to actually be less dangerous to children than the ordinary flu.

At a time with so many unknowns, so much emotion, and the additional reality that many are trying to politicize the issue, what are some real facts about what we know about the virus?

Here are a few facts that I have been able to put together based on research from various sources including the CDC, www.Worldometers.info and a great post on Twitter by L. All of this is based on global data.

• Incubation period for the disease is 5.2 days and generally ranges from between 2-14 days. Maximum recorded was 27 days.

• Mortality rate is higher for men (2.8%) than women (1.7%). Mortality risk increases with age.

By Age

80+ years: 14.8%
70 - 79: 8.0%
60 - 69: 3.6%
50 - 59: 1.3%
40 - 49: 0.4%
30 - 39: 0.2%
20 - 29: 0.2%
10 - 19: 0.2%
0 - 9:     0.0%

The U.S. Surgeon General reported that the average age of those who had died from Covid-19 in the United States was 80 as of March 9, 2020.

• Of those cases with an outcome from the illness worldwide, 94% recovered/discharged and 6% died.

Of those currently infected, 88% have a mild condition and 12% are in serious/critical condition.

Cases in major countries as of March 11.

Credit:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

One of the encouraging items in this recent data is the reduction in new cases in China as well as Japan which a month ago were the hot spots for the virus in the world. They have been replaced by Italy and Iran.

A total of 270 all over the world died from Covid-19 yesterday.

For perspective, over 1,300 died from the seasonal flu.

835 mothers died during childbirth.

Almost 3,000 people committed suicide.

More than 22,000 died from cancer.

200 people die from snakebites around the world in a typical day.

The other big news of the day was the announcement by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo that the state was creating a "containment area" around a community in New Rochelle, New York in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus to an area that quickly has become "ground zero" for Covid-19 cases in the state.

The containment area is centered around a synagogue which accounts for 108 of the state's 173 cases.

"It is a dramatic action, but it is the largest cluster in the country," Cuomo said. "And this is literally a matter of life and death."

A synagogue in the city has become the epicenter of an outbreak in Westchester County — which accounts for 108 of New York state's 173 coronavirus cases. Hundreds of people in the Young Israel congregation have already been under a voluntary quarantine order that was issued last week. The congregation's rabbi has confirmed that he is among those who have tested positive for the virus.

As of Tuesday, that synagogue is also at the center of a circle that extends for a 1-mile radius, marking the state's containment area. Residents would still be allowed to move around — but the new policy effectively blocks any large public gatherings in the area, to prevent further transmission of the virus.

The National Guard is also being called on to assist in carrying out any functions in the zone but Cuomo states they will not be performing any policing functions,

Seeing all of this is further proof that we are in The Fourth Turning which I have written about a number of times in these pages. Here is the most recent blog post I wrote about the book shortly after Donald Trump was elected President.

The Fourth Turning is a book written in 1997 by William Strauss and Neil Howe that refers to the cycles of history. There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each full cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 years.

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting. This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.  The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis which is the Winter.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997 (when they wrote the book), they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

The authors of The Fourth Turning originally projected 2005 as the target date for the turn stating that it could be several years before or after that date. 9/11 and Katrina could be the turning point but most likely the 2008 financial meltdown marked the catalyst that thrust us into The Fourth Turning. We will not know for sure until we see it all play out. The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the Fourth Turning. Depending on the start date of The Fourth Turning we are very close to the point of maximum crisis.

Could Covid-19 be the catalyst that takes us to the point of maximum crisis?

When Strauss and Howe wrote The Fourth Turning in 1997 they listed some plausible scenarios that could be catalysts to crisis.

Here is one of several they suggested 23 years ago (you can find it on page 273 of the book).

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announces the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The President orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the President to declare martial law.

A little eerie?

The big takeaway from The Fourth Turning is that when the nation hits the crisis climax point (as we did previously with the Revolutionary War, Civil War, Depression/World War II---notice that all were separated by approximately 80 years) the people came to realize that the very survival of society is at stake.

At that point the public mood shifts to one that is less concerned with individual rights and more concerned with the collective good. People ultimately will seek this as a means for society to survive the Crisis. It has no other choice.

We have lived through a long period of division, divisiveness, rancor and acrimony in the United States. It is hard to see this era ending in that we have lived with it for so long.

However, as Winter turns to Spring, history also has its turns. Looking at history reminds us that periods of crisis can make us all stronger. It is times like this that makes it clear that we need to focus more on what unites us than divides us.

Perhaps Covid-19 is not the catalyst for the Crisis climax that changes the public mood to one that values unity over division and rational dialogue over rancor. I do know that nothing lasts forever. This virus will not last forever. The divisiveness and acrimony will also soften at some point.

In the meantime, a good portion of the population may soon be exposed to a much different world than they have experienced in their lives before. That is starting to be made clear with the news from today.

My hope is that what we are dealing with is short-lived. Let's pray we soon find truths and facts about what we are dealing with to return to normalcy as soon as possible. However, at this point, we can't go back to when almost no one had ever heard of the coronavirus or Wuhan, China. We can only deal with it as best we can.

I would suggest that it is a good time to remember this no matter what turns are ahead for us...

And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose.       

-Romans 8:28

Amen.

Cruise Blues

Mrs. BeeLine and I have spent a fair amount of time on cruise ships over the last few years.

We have done four transatlantic and two transpacific crossings and have visited Alaska, Hawaii, Tahiti, Bora Bora, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, China, South Korea, England, Scotland, Ireland, Norway, Belgium, France, Italy, Croatia and Greece in our travels.

It is a very convenient way to travel. It is a cost effective way to view a number of locales on one trip. It is relaxing. It is a great way to meet new and interesting people from around the world.

There is also no doubt that when you cruise you are floating in a germ factory when you are in close quarters with thousands of other human beings as you sail the seven seas.

When we cruise we always pack an industrial size pack of Lysol wipes and a large can of Lysol spray. Those are used to wipe down and spray every surface in our cabin before we touch anything. That includes spraying the HVAC vents.

We wash our hands religiously before every meal. We use the hand sanitizers around the ship constantly. We avoid touching any bannisters or railings everywhere we can. If we need to steady ourselves going up or down stairs we use the inside crook of our arm. We try to avoid the elevators when we can and use the stairs. We only touch the buttons on the elevator with our knuckle rather than our fingers.

On a ship you see clear evidence of herd behavior. On ships that place a steward at the front of the buffet venue the first few days of the cruise directing people to wash their hands before entering, you see a high percentage of people doing this the rest of the cruise. On ships that don't do this, you see very little compliance with hand washing. This does not make Mrs. BeeLine very happy.

The coronavirus has put a particular spotlight on the cruise industry.

First, we had the Diamond Princess situation in which the ship was quarantined in the harbor at Yokohama, Japan with 3,711 passengers and crew members. Over 700 on the ship ultimately tested positive for the virus. 46 were Americans.

This is a picture I took from our cabin when we were docked in Yokohama two years ago. It is a beautiful sight but I don't know if it would look as good if this was the only thing you had to look at for two weeks.

Yokohama, Japan at night

Shortly after the Diamond Princess began its quarantine, Holland America's Westerdam was stranded at sea for several days as five different ports in Asia refused to give it permission to dock after it had been to China. Cambodia ultimately allowed the ship to dock and it turned out that one passenger had a mild case of the virus.

Holland America had to subsequently cancel all future sailings in Asia for the next several months as have other major cruise lines.

The latest cruise ship that is now dealing with coronavirus is the Grand Princess. This is a picture I took of that ship as it was leaving San Francisco several years ago. You can see Alcatraz Island just to the left of the bow of the ship.

The Grand Princess leaving San Francisco

21 (19 crew, 2 passengers) on the ship have tested positive for the virus so far. A passenger on a previous cruise two weeks ago had developed symptoms when they got home and recently passed away. Public health officials determined that the passenger most likely had acquired the virus on the ship leading to increased scrutiny. The latest news is the passengers will disembark in Oakland, CA i n the next couple of days and then be quarantined at various facilities around the country.

All of this is bad news for the cruise industry.

However, I believe it is going to get much, much worse.

The Diamond Princess episode caused the cancellation of almost all cruise with stops in China, Hong Kong and Singapore. This has to now also include Japan and South Korea.

Many lines have been prohibited passengers who were from China (or who were recently in China) from boarding their ships. For example, some friends recently returned from a Caribbean cruise in which the cruise line was not allowing anyone from China, Hong Kong or Macau (or who had been there recently) to board the ship.

What do the cruise lines do now?  The list is getting long of those places that are hot spots. There are also not many places that can be considered totally safe. Korea? Italy? Iran? Seattle?

The cruise industry is also heavily reliant on an older demographic for a large portion of its revenues. This is also the group that experts are now saying carries the most risk from the virus. It has also recently been recommended that those over age 60 should avoid unnecessary air travel or venues with lots of people. Is going on a cruise necessary for anyone?

Dr. Anothory Fauci of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases was pretty direct in an appearance on Meet the Press on Sunday.

"If you're a person with an underlying condition — and you are particularly an elderly person with an underlying condition — you need to think twice about getting on a plane or on a long trip," Fauci said. "And not only think twice, just don't get on a cruise ship."

You have to think that more and more of these people are not going to get on an airplane to congregate with 3,000-4,000 people on a ship.

The cruise industry will also soon be beginning its Alaska cruise season that heavily relies on Seattle and Vancouver as the major port cities. I had read that some cruise lines were also planning to take ships out of the Asia market and reposition them to Alaska. That might not work.

Seattle now seems to be ground zero for the virus in the United States. 17 of the 20 US. deaths from COVID-19 have been in Washington state. I would not be surprised to soon see Vancouver become the leading hot spot for the virus in Canada. Canada did not stop flights to China as early as the United States and the proximity to Seattle practically guarantees that we will see community transmission between the two areas.

All in all, I see a lot of rough seas ahead for the cruise industry before public confidence is regained.

Vice President Pence met with cruise line executives in Florida on Friday and urged them to step up efforts on protecting passengers, crew and the ports they visit from the virus.

Pence said that over the next 72 hours, cruise lines will work with federal officials and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to screen more passengers for the coronavirus before they board ships, establish onboard testing and develop a plan to move anyone who has contracted the virus to land quickly.

That will help but I have doubts whether that will do enough to restore the confidence the cruise industry is going to need to get passengers on those ships in the near term.

For example, 2/3 of those responded in a recent survey that they would not go on a cruise even if it was offered to them for free! It was 77% for those age 65 and older.

Carnival Corporation (the owner Princess Cruise Lines) has seem its stock almost cut in half since the first of the year.

This is the chart of the stock over the last one month.

As bad as I see the situation of the cruise industry dealing with the coronavirus, Iran seems to be on verge of being in even worse straits.

The disease seems to be raging through Iran in ways not seen elsewhere. A large number of members of parliament and other public officials have been infected. A number have died. The virus also seems to be claiming a significant number of health professionals, including doctors and nurses, and members of the police and security forces. Therefore, in Iran the virus is attacking some of the  foundations of the society that will not be easily replaced when the epidemic ends.

Of course, with Iran, you never know if you are getting the whole story. However, even with what they are disclosing, it does not look good. Reports from within Iran are the numbers are much, more worse that what the government is admitting.

These are the most recent worldwide numbers on the extent of the virus by country. The disease is accelerating faster in Iran than anywhere else in the world right now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
3/8/20

I am following @aliostad on Twitter who is an Iranian who lives in the UK and is monitoring various news and social media sites in Iran and translating them to English. His reports paint a grim picture of what is going on in Iran. Here are a few recent tweets to provide you some context.

Prayers for the Iranian people. 

As bad as the cruise blues might be, you have to think that the percentage who would accept an all-expenses trip to Iran right now would have to be close to 0%.