Chaos in Kabul

Three weeks ago I wrote that it appeared to me that Joe Biden was sinking fast and he could soon sink even faster in the eyes of the American people.

Whoever is pulling the strings for Joe Biden must be getting a little nervous.

The American people are becoming increasingly uneasy and that usually portends trouble for the person in charge.

The biggest indicator is an ABC/IPSOS poll that was recently released that showed that only 45% of Americans are optimistic about where the country is headed over the next year. 55% are pessimistic.

In April, 64% were optimistic. That is a 19 point drop in three months.

I wrote at that time that Biden's advisers should be particularly worried in that I saw storm clouds rising on the horizon with the two issues that Biden had the highest marks---Covid response (63% approval) and the withdrawal from Afghanistan (55% approval).

I predicted that Biden could well go into a free fall if Covid cases continued to rise and/or Afghanistan is overtaken by turmoil, terrorists and the Taliban.

It is stunning how each has deteriorated so fast in the last 20 days.

It has been a steady diet of bad news on Covid since I wrote that post.

Cases have more than doubled in the last three weeks.

Cases are also more than double what they were last year at the same time when no one was vaccinated. 62% of the age 18+ U.S. population are fully vaccinated today. 72% have received at least one dose.

This has started raising more and more questions about the effectiveness of the vaccines to prevent Covid and the transmission of the virus in the United States and elsewhere.

This is not good news for Joe Biden.

However, the current Covid chaos is nothing compared to the upheaval that has swept over Afghanistan in the last three weeks and resulted in complete chaos that shook that nation's capital, Kabul, on Sunday as the Taliban invaded the city and overthrew the government.

Let's go back to July 8, 2021 (not even 6 weeks ago) and see what Joe Biden said about Afghanistan when questioned about the U.S. withdrawal plans.

Source: https://twitter.com/polarisnatsec/status/1426225950312837122

The following words are all taken from the official White House transcript.

I have a feeling that these words could end up in the History books summarizing the ineptitude of the Biden administration.

On whether a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is inevitable.

On reports the intelligence community told Biden that the Afghan government would likely collapse after U.S. withdrawal.

About the possibility of whether we will see the U.S. embassy in Kabul abandoned in much the same way it happened in Saigon, Vietnam with helicopters landing on the roof to ferry its employees out of the country.

August 15, 2021 in Kabul.

PHOTO 1: US diplomat evacuate US from embassy via helicopter as the #Taliban enter #Kabul from all sides. #Afghanistan (2021)
Source: https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633/photo/1

Vietnam in 1975.

PHOTO 2: US diplomat evacuate US from embassy via helicopter as the PAVN & Viet Cong capture of Saigon, Vietnam (1975)
Source: https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1426846783267909633/photo/1

This is very bad for Biden.

This is very, very bad for the reputation of the United States of America and the security of the American people.

The is very, very, very bad for the people of Afghanistan, most particularly the females in that country and anyone who assisted the United States efforts over the years.

These tweets from Walid Phares say it better than I can.

Consider as well this statement by Biden that he could not do anything to expedite the visa process for the Afghan translators who assisted the United States because the "law doesn't allow that to happen."

The last I looked the law also does not allow over 1 million immigrants to cross our border illegally as they have over the last six months either.

How bad is all of this?

Consider what former General (and Director of the CIA) David Petraeus said about the situation (and this was before the government fell later in the day).

Or consider what former Ambassador Ryan Crocker (to both Iraq and Afghanistan) said about the chaos in Kabul to The Washington Post.

By the way, Crocker was appointed to be Ambassador of Afghanistan by President Obama.

Biden's advisers also know this is very bad.

You should expect to see some serious spin blaming Trump, DeSantis or anyone else they can hope to shift the blame to.

As an example, here is Andrea Mitchell of NBC  seeming to repeat a narrative she got from the White House about a "peaceful transition" as American personnel are choppering off the roof of the embassy.

I guess we will soon find out how peaceful those Taliban leaders are.

We will also find out how peaceful the Taliban proves to be with all of the military hardware left behind by the United States to the Afghan forces that is now in their hands.

Can Biden afford to allow that to happen?

Will our planes have to go in to destroy the planes, missiles and war material left behind so it does end up in the hands of terrorists to use against Americans?

Yes, it is chaos in Kabul.

Yes, it is very, very, very bad for so many (except China and Russia).

 I am reminded that Robert Gates (Secretary of Defense under Obama/Biden) once said this.

It appears that Biden's record is still intact.

The Answer Is We Don't Want To Know The Answer

Many BeeLine readers ask how I got write about so many different topics?

They ask where I get my ideas on what to write about?

The truth is that I continually see an endless number of things to write about.

The challenge today is that I find it harder than ever to write about the things I see because so much is deluded or depressing. 

I often have to stop and ask "how is it possible that people believe this is good for their country, their fellow man or the world?"

It feels like we are witnessing a battle of good and evil right before our eyes

It often seems that there are those who want to take everything that we have built in our society and drive it over a cliff.

There is no better example than this story out of Oregon which recently passed a law that suspends the requirement that any high school student must show proficiency in math, writing and reading in order to graduate.

This bill was actually signed into law by Oregon's Governor Kate Brown last month.

The state of Oregon will no longer require its students to demonstrate proficiency in math, reading and writing in order to earn a high school diploma in a bid to bolster minority students.  

Gov. Kate Brown signed a bill late last month suspending the state's 'essential skills' requirement for graduation for the next three years while its Department of Education seeks alternative graduation requirements.

Governor Brown and the proponents of the measure argue that not requiring students to be proficient in reading, writing and arithmetic will benefit "Oregon’s black, Latino, Latina, Latinx, Indigenous, Asian, Pacific Islander, Tribal, and students of color".

"They don't test well."

Really?

Is it also not possible that they simply have not learned how to read, write and do arithmetic?

I guess the answer is that we don't want to know the answer.

Are these students really going to "benefit" by not knowing the basics of what is required to succeed in the real world?

It is almost impossible to comprehend the logic.

Why did slaveowners never want their slaves to learn to read and write?

Why does the Taliban refuse to allow women to be educated?

It is because without these basic skills you are beholden to a master. 

You are less able to think for yourself and have a desire for freedom.

You are totally dependent.

Oregon argues it is for only three years and (of course) blames the pandemic for which the suspension of this requirement began by administrative order before the Oregon legislature and Governor saw fit to make it law.

They have set a goal to find requirements that I guess will be "less racist" over the next three years.

As we start another school year (the third under the specter of Covid) I shudder to think of what the long-term effects will be of what we are doing to these young people.

Consider, for example, the reported grade averages in the city of Baltimore last year.

Source: https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/baltimore-city-schools-41-of-high-school-students-earn-below-10-gpa-07-15-2021

WBFF obtained a chart assembled by BCPS. The chart shows the average GPA for every high school in the city – freshman through senior. In the first three quarters of this past school year, according to the chart, 41% of all Baltimore City high school students, earned below a 1.0 GPA. In other words, nearly half of the 20,500 public high school students in Baltimore earned less than a D average.

What happens to the students who failed a course in Baltimore last year?

They are just moved on and up.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/us/baltimore-schools-failing-grades/index.html

School officials don't want any students to feel like a failure or to believe any punitive action has been applied to them.

The district said the policy was adopted in recognition of the struggles students have faced during the coronavirus pandemic. Chief Academic Officer Joan Dabrowski said it's meant to "avoid the punitive approach of failing students," according to comments during Tuesday's board meeting.

"This is not about a failure, but it is about unfinished learning and giving multiple opportunities, multiple onramps for young people to complete that ... learning," Baltimore City Public Schools CEO Sonja Santelises said. 

It is just "unfinished learning".

How many students in Baltimore schools had "unfinished learning" in at least one class?

63% failed at least one class.

Sixty-three percent of middle and high school students are failing at least one class according to Baltimore City Public Schools -- that's nearly 25,000 students out of the nearly 40,000 sixth through twelfth graders in the district.

 If you think we have problems today just wait until this demographic is ready for the work force.

Will they ever ready for the workforce?

Will they ever understand accountability and responsibility when this is how our school and public officials are preparing them for the future?

Our children are another casualty of the woke culture we live in today that has only intensified under Covid.

It seems delusional and depressing for me to see what is going on. However, when we are consistently sacrificing our children it almost feels demonic.

How can any of this be in the best long-term interests of these children?

How can it be in the best interests of our society?

What lies ahead is not going to be in anybody's best interests.

More Dangerous Than Delta?

We are being bombarded with stories right now about the "dangerous" Delta variant of Covid.

It is being blamed as the reason that the vaccines are not working as advertised.

It is being blamed as the reason that children in schools need to wear masks again.

It is said that it is particularly dangerous to the unvaccinated (most particularly unvaccinated children) who are also said to be the prime vectors for transmitting Delta.

There is data out there to support some of these assertions.

India, where the Delta variant is said to have originated, saw an explosion of cases beginning in mid-March. Prior to this outbreak India had been relatively untouched by the pandemic compared to many other countries.

The UK saw another surge in cases that was blamed on Delta that began in May.

The CDC has warned that the Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and may make people sicker than the original version of Covid.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/delta-cdc-warns-variant-is-as-contagious-as-chickenpox-may-make-people-sicker.html

Let's put that in context so that you understand how contagious chickenpox is.

This is how a pediatric infectious disease expert explains the contagiousness of chickenpox.

This delta variant is so much more contagious than the COVID we were seeing a year ago that it is becoming one of the most contagious viruses we have ever seen. It is almost as contagious as chickenpox. Chickenpox is so contagious, that if you had a patient sitting in a room with chickenpox, someone walking by in the hallway outside the room, with that door open, could catch it. That's how contagious it was -- just breathing the same air from an adjacent room.

That is really contagious. Forget about masks. Let's bring out the haz mat suits. If that is true we better have a vaccine which is very effective or it doesn't look like there is much hope that Delta will not eventually spread to everyone.

I take all of these claims seriously but I have also learned to do my own research and see where the data takes me.

The Delta variant clearly caused havoc in India but cases also declined as quickly in that country as they did on the upside. The entire cycle lasted about 90 days---45 days to peak, 45 days to level off.

Those cases also declined despite a very small number in that country being vaccinated. Today just 8% of the population in India has been fully vaccinated. It is 58% in the UK.

Based on everything we have been told, the UK should have done much better than India in dealing with Covid in general and Delta in particular.

UK has a less dense population than India. It has a more advanced health care system. It vaccinated a large proportion of its population

How do they compare on confirmed cases per capita?

How do they compare on deaths since the beginning of the pandemic?

The current surge in the United States is being blamed on the "dangerous" Delta variant. 

However, is it as dangerous as it is being portrayed or is Delta being used as a convenient excuse right now to obscure what increasingly look to be problems with the effectiveness of the Covid vaccines and the public health strategy we were told to follow from the beginning?

I don't know the answer to that question. It makes me uncomfortable even questioning whether the people who we should trust the most on this subject may be misleading us to protect their own reputations and maintain the narrative.

One of the most interesting research analyses I have come across in researching Covid over the last 18 months is a JAMA meta-analysis of 54 studies which examined the overall secondary household attack rate of people who had Covid.

In simple terms, these studies examined how many people in the same household became infected with Covid while living in that household with a symptomatic (or asymptomatic) Covid case.

To hear the CDC or media narrative you have to think it is close to 100% because of the "infectiousness" of Covid.

The actual number from the study. 17%.

That is right, less than 20% got sick with Covid living in the same house with someone with a Covid patient.

This number is a shock to almost everyone I share it with. Most don't believe it to be possible based on what they have heard in the media.

These people were living together, eating together, sharing the same bathroom facilities and, in some cases, sleeping together. Less than 1 in 5 got sick.

To add credibility to the 17% transmission rate in close quarters, that is also about the same infection rate that was found on the Diamond Princess and Teddy Roosevelt aircraft carrier early in the pandemic. Approximately 80% never got the virus despite being in very close contact with others on the ship.

The infection rate with someone who was asymptomatic? 0.7%.

I wrote about his earlier and its implications in a blog post in March titled "What About Asymptomatic Spread?".

If the attack rate is less than 1% involving asymptomatic cases in a household living arrangement, the attack rate for casual contacts involving asymptomatic cases has to be basically zero.

The key rationale for masking, distancing, and lockdowns is allegedly to protect public health from significant transmission from people who don’t show symptoms. If the contagiousness of people without symptoms is not a significant factor in the spread of Covid why have we wrecked the economy, our schools and everything else?

Why then, have we also seen the virus spread despite all of the social distancing, masks, school closures and everything else?

We are now being told all of our previous assumptions are out the window because we are dealing with a new and more dangerous variant. 

If you look at the case numbers you can easily be persuaded that is true.

Cases per million are actually more than double what they were at this time last year.

However, last year no one was vaccinated. This year, almost 60% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccines.

As I have written before, how can we have the surge we are having if the vaccines are effective?

The narrative is that it is because of the Delta variant. It is more contagious. It is more dangerous. The vaccines were not designed to work against it. It is also the fault of those who are unvaccinated.

Is that true or is that a convenient excuse?

If there was no Delta variant to blame how would they explain the rise in cases right now?

The reality is that there are simply not enough unvaccinated people to fuel a surge of this magnitude  It defies logic and mathematics. You might have a bump but you could not possibly be at double last year's numbers.

It would either have to be the vaccines were not that effective to begin with or they are wearing off so quickly to be useless without continual boosters. 

Both of these would not be helpful to the narrative that has been developed.

Is Delta really that much more contagious? That seems to be the key point with Delta.

"It is almost as contagious as chickenpox".

I found a recent UK study published by Public Health England to be interesting in that regard in that it studied the secondary household attack rate from the Delta variant in that country during the recent surge in cases.

This study looked extensively at all of the Covid variants circulating in the UK since February, 2021.

This graph from the study gives you perspective on how Delta became the dominant variant in the UK beginning in May.

In the UK, consistent with the JAMA study findings, the household secondary attack rate for the Alpha version of Covid that was circulating last December was 15.5%.

That means that almost 85% of those in a household with Covid did not get sick themselves.

What were their findings with the Delta variant?

The attack rate was 13.5% in May but was down to 10.8% in July.

Source: https://dailysceptic.org/2021/08/06/devastating-new-data-from-phe-shows-vaccine-effectiveness-down-to-17-and-no-reduction-in-infectiousness-but-mortality-cut-by-77/

This data suggests that the Delta variant in the UK, at its height, was not as infectious as the Alpha version last Winter, let alone approaching the infectiousness of chickenpox.

One commentator stated his conclusions from that finding in the PHE briefing study.

Another noteworthy point from the briefing is that the secondary attack rate (SAR, the proportion of contacts that an infected person infects) of the Delta variant has continued to decline as the surge exhausts itself. The household SAR is now at 10.8%, down from a high of 13.5% on May 4th. This means nearly 90% of the people who live with someone infected with the ‘highly transmissible’ Delta variant do not contract the virus, an indication of widespread (and growing) immunity to the variant. Note that this is well below the 15.5% ‘direct contact’ SAR of the Alpha variant in the middle of December, giving the lie to the oft-repeated claim that Delta is intrinsically more infectious than Alpha.

Where does that leave us who live in the United States?

The Sunbelt is in the middle of the same seasonal outbreak that occurred last Summer as the heat drives people inside to air conditioning and makes them more susceptible to the virus.

I would expect we are close to the peak in those states.

The narrative is that the surge in those states is due to low vaccination rates and Delta.

What is going to occur when the seasonality trend turns to the blue states in Northern climes? It will as the weather cools. 

That is going to be the real test of the vaccines and the narrative. 

In the next month we should also see if deaths are following cases up in the states that are seeing the surge right now. Deaths normally lag cases by about 30 days.

It may only be then that we find out whether Delta was really that infectious and dangerous or whether is it just a convenient excuse to keep the narrative alive that is centered so critically on vaccines as the only answer.

That includes doubling down even more on vaccine mandates as mounting evidence suggests they are woefully adequate for their intended purpose---to prevent infection and the transmission of disease.

The PHE study also found that there were limited difference in the infectiousness of those who were vaccinated and unvaccinated if they contracted Covid in that they showed similar viral loads (p.35). This clearly suggests that vaccinated people are spreading the virus. What exact purpose do "vaccine passports" serve then?

It still is very possible that the vaccines are effective in reducing severe illness and death. 

There is data to support that conclusion which includes the PHE briefing cited above. It showed a reduction in mortality due to the vaccines of 77%.

However, this would mean that these shots are really more akin to treatments than vaccines.

That then raises the question of whether it is ethical to subject so many people to the risks that may accompany those shots when the disease and its transmission is not being prevented. Shouldn't the focus then shift to other treatments that would be more targeted and carry less overall risks for the population?

Is Delta that dangerous?

Or is it possible that we face an even more dangerous threat right now that the CDC and the political class are so invested in their narrative than they are unwilling to veer from it at any cost.

The next few months may provide us with the elusive answer.

What was more dangerous?

Delta or what we were told to believe that simply was not true.

Addendum:

Below are some charts that show the history of chickenpox in the United States and the effects after a vaccine was first introduced in 1995.

This gives you some perspective as to what you would expect to see from a vaccine that was successfully preventing infection and the transmission of disease.

Notice that as vaccination percentages increased there was a corresponding reduction in cases.

Source: https://vaccines.procon.org/vaccine-histories-and-impact/varicella-chickenpox/

Source: https://vaccines.procon.org/vaccine-histories-and-impact/varicella-chickenpox/

By the time vaccination rates got to 60% cases had dropped by 80%.

Right now our Covid vaccination rates are about 60% but cases are up 100% since this time last year.

Monday Meanderings-8/9/10 Edition

My last edition of Monday Meanderings received some nice reviews from readers so I am posting another round.

Biden Sinking Even Faster Than I Thought?

Two weeks ago I wrote a blog post that Joe Biden appeared to be on the verge of sinking fast based on recent polling.

Another poll out last week by Rasmussen indicates that it might be much worse than I could have imagined.

The Rasmussen poll shows that only 48% approve of Biden's job performance.

What I found most interesting (and troubling for Biden) was looking at the cross-tabs in that poll.

What stood out in particular is the fact that Biden's approval with women is evaporating at levels that are hard to comprehend.

Exit polls from the 2020 election indicate that Biden would not have been elected without the female vote.

The CNN exit poll in 2020 showed that Biden got 57% of the women's vote. By contrast, Trump got 53% of the male vote.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

The Rasmussen poll from last week shows Biden underwater with women 46%-52% (-6 points).

In other words, Biden has gone from +15 with women to -6 since the election.

Even worse for Biden, the poll shows that only 26% of women strongly approve while 44% strongly disapprove of his performance.

Only 32% of women in the poll stated they thought the United States was headed in the right direction.

Source: https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1423982096251502597/photo/1

At the same time, Rasmussen shows that Biden has picked up support from men?

The poll also shows Biden's support among Blacks is also falling.

32% of Blacks strongly disapprove of Biden compared to 35% who strongly approve?

Biden received 87% of the Black vote in 2020.

The data on men and Blacks don't seem to add up and perhaps the poll is flawed somehow.

However, this trend may be interesting to keep an eye on.

If this polling is even partly true, Biden is in deep, deep trouble.

Vaccines Failing To Prevent Spread Of Covid

More troubling data this week from some of the the places in the United States that have the highest rate of vaccinations in their population.

It is hard to look at this data and believe that the vaccines are effective against preventing Covid right now.

85% of those eligible (age 12+) have received at least one dose of the vaccines in San Francisco. 78% are fully vaccinated.

Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-vaccinations

85% of those age 65+ are fully vaccinated.

Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-vaccinations

New cases are double what they were last year at this time in San Francisco despite almost 80% being fully vaccinated.

New Covid Cases in San Francisco
Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-cases-and-deaths

The good news is that we have not seen deaths following cases in San Francisco thus far. However, deaths are a lagging indicator and we probably need another month after this spike in cases to really believe we are better off than last year.

Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-cases-and-deaths#more-information

Vaccines may very well be limiting severe illness and deaths. However, could it not also be due to better treatments and therapeutics?

Analyzing the data is never easy with Covid as there are so many moving parts. 

Hawaii also has one of the highest vaccination rates in the nation. 72% of the population has received at least one dose (3rd best in the nation). Hawaii also had some of the highest mask compliance rates. Hawaii is also not allowing anyone into the state unless they have a negative Covid test upon arrival.

It is not going real well for Hawaii right now.

New York Vaccine Passports

New York City is mandating vaccine passports for indoor dining, fitness and entertainment venues.

People who do not have proof of vaccination will not be able to work in or patronize these facilities.

I find it interesting that a vaccine ID is considered acceptable in that city but voter ID is considered racist.

This is especially true considering that only 31% of Blacks and 42% of Hispanics in New York City are fully vaccinated.

What is even more interesting is that recent reports indicate that about half of New York's city police and fire personnel have refused to be vaccinated.

Source: https://nypost.com/2021/07/27/less-than-half-of-staff-vaccinated-at-key-nyc-public-agencies-data/

My guess is that a substantial number of these first responders in New York City have already had Covid and simply do not see the need to take the vaccines (and the risks) with no clear benefit over their natural immunity.

Is Mayor DeBlasio going to block them from entering a diner to eat?

It gets more difficult to understand when you look at the numbers in San Francisco and Hawaii that have high vaccination rates and yet cases are going up. What exactly is the vaccine passport going to do?

All of this cannot be good for the future of New York City retail rental real estate which is already feeling the effects of Covid.

America's 10th Largest City Created in 2021

You may not have realized it but the United States has added the equivalent of its 10th largest city just with the number of illegal aliens that have been apprehended (and released) at the southern border so far this year.

1,110.000 have been encountered by U.S. Customs and Border Protection thus far this year. That is larger than the population of San Jose, California which is the 10th largest city in the United States.

It is also about the same number of LEGAL immigrants that are supposed to be allowed into the country based on the current immigration law.

Of course, the LAW is now a small detail that no one in Washington, D.C. seems to be concerned with anymore.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/enough-people-crossed-border-2021-create-10th-largest-city-us-1615776

210,000 illegals were encountered at the border in July alone according to estimates calculated by the Associated Press (official numbers have not yet been released for July by CBP). This would be the highest monthly total in 21 years.

The official CBP numbers through June show the year-over-year changes.

By country of origin.

Honduras +604%

Guatemala, El Salvador +400%

Mexico +195%

Source:https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters-by-component#wcm-survey-target-id

By demographic.

Unaccompanied minors +337%!

Source:https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters-by-component#wcm-survey-target-id

It also should be kept in mind that these are the numbers of illegals that the CBP know about. How many others snuck into the country that they don't know about?

All of this poses a difficult question.

Which language do you advise your children or grandchildren to study in school looking to the future?

Spanish or Chinese?

Should I Be Concerned?

Should I be concerned?

That is a question several people have asked me in recent days who have gotten the Covid vaccine.

It is a question that more and more people are asking in light of new data showing that the vaccines may not be as effective as they were promoted to be.

I have highlighted some of this data in these pages previously here, here and here.

As I have also written in these pages, any medical intervention has benefits...and risks.

Every time a medical intervention (tests, immunizations, prescription drugs, surgery) is undertaken you are taking a risk. That risk is generally worthwhile because it will make you better in the long run. However, you could end up in worse shape because of the intervention.

To better understand this, consider the research that shows that in every instance in which doctors have gone on strike around the world, death rates have stayed the same or gone down when the doctors were out. There has never been a study that shows the death rate has gone up. Think about that. When the doctors are not involved the death rate actually drops?

This is attributed to the fact that elective or non- emergency surgeries do not get done when doctors are on strike and a surprising amount of mortality occurs following these procedures. Death rates actually rise when elective surgeries begin again.

That is why it is critical that anyone considering a medical intervention understand its benefits and risks. 

A major concern that I have had with the Covid vaccines from the beginning is that the CDC, the political class and the media have oversold the benefits of the vaccines while downplaying their risks.

At the same time, they have also done little to put the risks of Covid in context. This had the effect of magnifying the risk of Covid (particularly for younger demographics) which then magnified the benefit of the vaccine.

Accordingly, this has distorted the risk/benefit profile of the Covid vaccines.

Taking the vaccine is a smart decision if it reduces your chance of illness by 95% and reduces your chance of death to 0%.

Taking the vaccine may not be so smart if it does not significantly reduce your chance of illness and you may still die of Covid.

Should you be concerned if you took the vaccine?

I think there is actually a bigger concern for all of us.

I believe the biggest concern is whether you can trust the information you are getting from the CDC, the Biden administration and the political class about  Covid and the vaccines.

Have they given you trustworthy information in the past? Can you rely on it to make future decisions?

Are they actually trying to mislead us in order to manage the narrative they have created?

These are questions everyone should be asking.

That is where I believe our greatest concerns should be.

For example, I think most everyone remembers the recent statements from Dr. Fauci and others that over 99% of deaths from Covid are now from unvaccinated people.

This article was published barely a week ago.

Source: https://www.cnet.com/health/99-of-covid-deaths-are-now-of-unvaccinated-people-experts-say/

In early July, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the president's chief medical advisor, told CBS that 99.2% of COVID deaths are now of unvaccinated people.

I questioned this number in a recent post.

I don't know what the real truth is on the percentage of Covid deaths today that are related to those who are vaccinated.

However, I am certain it is not 1%. My suspicion is that this is a manipulated number based on data from early in the year. It does not represent current conditions as it is being portrayed to the public.

What is the real number?

I don't know.

 

Shortly after I wrote that, a confidential CDC slide presentation was leaked to The Washington Post and some other media outlets that contained the following slide.

It shows the number of hospitalized patients and in-hospital deaths among those who were fully vaccinated through May.

15.1% of Covid deaths in May were fully vaccinated. 

Source: https://humanevents.com/2021/07/30/breaking-leaked-cdc-slides-call-for-universal-masks-reinstating-mitigation-strategies-vaccine-mandates-for-hcp-to-stop-delta-variant/

That is a long way from 1%. That number is also from May before the current Covid surge began.

It makes you wonder what that number is now? 20%? 30% Higher?

It also makes you wonder why Fauci and others have not been honest about this number?

In the United States, 70% of all eligible individuals have now had at least one dose of the vaccines.

Logic would indicate that cases should fall if the vaccines were effective for their intended purpose of preventing Covid-19 with the vaccination rate that high. Prevention of being infected with Covid was the sole basis upon which the emergency use authorization was issued by the FDA.

However, new daily cases are actually about double what they were at this time last year when no one was vaccinated.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The good news is that even though cases are up, deaths right now are only about half of what they were a year ago at this time.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Is this proof that the vaccines may not be preventing infections but they are preventing deaths?

That may be the case.

It certainly is the new narrative.

"The vaccines may not prevent you from getting Covid but they will keep you from serious illness and death".

I hold hope that is the case. Data from the UK indicates that it may be. Deaths have declined in the older age groups in particular.

However, let's compare Israel and Palestine.

If the vaccine is effective in preventing death, Israel should be doing a lot better than Palestine since Israel has vaccinated a large majority of its population. Palestine has vaccinated very few. They live right next to each other.

Compare the results on deaths since July 1, 2021.

Israel is spiking up. Palestine has been very steady.

Cumulative Covid deaths per million between Israel and Palestine are also almost identical since the pandemic began.

When you consider all of the medical interventions that Israel has deployed since the pandemic began (testing, masking, therapeutics, vaccines, etc) compared to what Palestine has been able to do, is it not remarkable that it appears not to have made much difference in the most important metric of all?

Can anyone look at this data and say definitively that the vaccines are providing the benefits that have been promised?

Should we be concerned?

Take all of this into account and now add into the equation that various cities, employers and the U.S. military are now going to effectively mandate that everyone takes the vaccine.

Add to this the fact that Israel and the UK are already getting ready to administer "booster" shots on top of the jabs people have already gotten. Of course, there have been no clinical trials on the effects (or safety) of these booster shots. Those who receive them will actually be the trial participants in a new experiment.

As evidence accumulates that the vaccines may not be effective in their intended use as promised, we are being told that the answer is to vaccinate even more people.

Perhaps someone could make the argument that the heavy-handed tactics are warranted if the data was irrefutable that the vaccines were totally EFFECTIVE and SAFE. We are a long way from there based on the current data.

Where is data like the following that shows the impact of the polio vaccines when they were first introduced in trials in 1952 and were fully approved in 1960?

Even though we can look back on this record now with satisfaction, many don't remember that the polio vaccines were suspended in 1955 when it was discovered that some children got polio from their shots after a massive trial began in 1954.

It also took more than seven years to get full approval of the polio vaccine once it was first administered in trials.

How long have the Covid vaccines been studied?

Keep this in mind as we hear that the FDA might give full approval to the Covid vaccines next month.

Ask yourself as well whether that decision is being driven by science or politics?

It took over seven years for the polio vaccine to get full approval but the Covid vaccines might be fully approved in nine months?

Should you be concerned?

The problem with assessing the benefits or risks of any drug or vaccine is that the assessments are taking place with a lot of background "noise". It is inherently difficult to determine the true benefits and risks of these interventions in the context of the overall health landscape.

You might remember a drug named Vioxx that the FDA approved in 1999 that was touted by its drug maker, Merck, as a superior painkiller to older drugs because it caused fewer gastrointestinal problems.

Over the next five years, 20 million Americans took Vioxx as prescribed by their physician. It resulted in billions of dollars in sales for Merck.

Merck eventually withdrew the drug five years later as mounting evidence showed that it was causing cardiovascular issues in those who took it.

A research study published in The Lancet later determined that Vioxx had caused at least 88,000 heart attacks and 38,000 deaths.

Merck later paid almost $5 billion to end thousands of lawsuits for it liability with Vioxx. 

The lesson here is that it can often take years and years to understand what is really going on with a drug or vaccine.

That is a reason that the approval process normally takes years.

Even then, in cases like Vioxx, the risks are not readily apparent because there is so much background noise.

Of course, no one can be sued for anything to do with the Covid vaccines. Everyone is exempt from liability. All of the risks are on those who take it. 

Should you be concerned right now?

As to Covid and the vaccines, it still comes down to your individual assessment of the risk/benefit profile. No two people are going to have the same profile. The benefits of the vaccines will generally be larger the older you are. The risks will generally be greater the younger you are.

However, the biggest concern for everyone right now should be that you are being told that mass vaccinations are the only way forward.

That may be proven in time.

It has not been proven yet.

Why then is everyone acting like it has?

Why is anyone who raises any questions or who has an alternative view censored and silenced? 

Yes, you should be concerned.

We are in a place that I never thought we would see in the United States of America.