Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Zero Covid, Zero Chance

The reality seems to be sinking in that a ZERO COVID world is not going to occur even as vaccination rates increase.

The CDC and others claim that the recent increase in cases is almost totally due to those who are unvaccinated.

However, that is not supported by the data or logic.

You simply could not have the rise in cases we have seen in a number of countries around the world due simply to those who are not unvaccinated.

The data suggests that the vaccines are not as effective at preventing infections as the public health authorities would like you to believe.

Let's look first at some foreign countries that all have higher vaccination rates than the United States.

Israel has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. Over 60% of the total population is fully vaccinated. 

However, the vaccination rates are 90%+ for those over age 60 and 80%+ for those over age 25.

Israel has recommended against vaccinating anyone under age 12 which keeps the overall vaccination rate lower than you would expect.

Cases have been rising in Israel recently.

Most of the new cases are in those that have been vaccinated. The cases have generally tracked the same percentage of the population that has been vaccinated. This does not suggest that the vaccines are a failure. However, it does indicate that the vaccines (Pfizer in Israel) are not providing much additional protection right now to new variants compared to those who have not been vaccinated.

This is evident in looking at the data.

In light of what Israel is seeing it just announced that it is not going to allow VACCINATED visitors into the country as of August 1 as originally planned.

What does this say about their confidence in the vaccines based on the data they are seeing?

Cases have exploded upwards in the UK which has vaccinated a similar percentage of its population as Israel.

Most vaccine doses in the UK have been from Astra Zeneca (not authorized in USA) or Pfizer. Moderna and J&J are not readily available there.

The UK is currently seeing as many new cases each day as they did in January.

This case growth would simply not be possible unless substantial numbers of vaccinated people were not becoming infected and/or spreading the virus.

The good news in the UK is that hospitalizations thus far have not followed cases up to the same degree as they did last winter. 

This may be due to the vaccines. Let's hope it is. However, it is also possible that it may be due to the fact that the Delta variant is simply less severe than what circulated last winter.

In any event, the UK's Chief Science Advisor stated on Monday that unvaccinated and one-dose patients made up 60% of current hospitalizations. That means 40% of those in the hospital with Covid are fully vaccinated. 

This would support the fact that the vaccines are beneficial in preventing severe disease. However, that is still an astonishingly high percentage for vaccines that have been promoted as conferring substantial protection for severe illness from Covid.

It is also interesting to look at Gibraltar. I wrote about Gibraltar last January right after it started a vaccination program and saw an enormous spike in cases after having almost no cases to that point.

That spike lasted for about 6 weeks until cases subsided to almost nothing over the last few months.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/

By mid-March Gibraltar became the first country or territory in the world to vaccinate its entire adult population against Covid.

Source: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14386115/gibraltar-first-nation-vaccinate-entire-adult-population-covid-jab/

These are the new confirmed cases in Gibraltar on July 16 as reported by the government.

32 new cases. 29 were people who had been vaccinated. 3 were unvaccinated.

Note also that there were no cases for anyone less than 10 years old even though this group has not been vaccinated in Gibraltar.

The vast majority of those who were vaccinated in Gibraltar received the Pfizer vaccine.

Source: https://twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1416011722314420225

To put that number of cases in context, that would be equal to the United States having over 300,000 cases per day if the Gibraltar experience occurred in the United States.

What is happening in the United States right now?

Cases have started to increase. The most recent 7-day rolling average is 32,000 cases per day. A month ago we were at 12,000/day.

In January we were at over 250,000/day.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This is despite the fact that over 56% of the U.S. population and almost 70% of the adult population has received at least one dose.

The number of those vaccinated has also continued to increase every day although far less steeply than it did earlier in the year.

Therefore, it defies logic to think that the current increase in cases is driven primarily by unvaccinated people as suggested by CDC Director on Friday since the number of unvaccinated falls each day.

"This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated," US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during Friday's White House Covid-19 briefing.

What we are seeing in other countries also suggests that there is something else that may be going on here.

For example, consider just a few stories that have come out over the last few days concerning high profile names who were vaccinated but have tested positive for Covid.

Five Democrat Texas state legislators who fled the state to protest a voting integrity bill in the state have all tested positive since arriving in Washington, D.C. All had been fully vaccinated.

A number of MLB players on the Yankees, Mariners and Rockies who had been vaccinated recently tested positive as has U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-16th District).

Several Olympic athletes who were vaccinated have recently been reported to be Covid positive including U.S. gymnastics teams alternate Kara Eaker.

Three weeks ago I predicted that we would be seeing a rise in cases in the Sunbelt states due to seasonality factors in those states with more people staying indoors to take refuge from the summer heat.

Where are cases the highest right now? They are all states that generally have high heat indexes in the summer.

Source: New York Times

Some argue that the high case numbers are driven by low vaccination rates pointing to Arkansas, Louisiana and Alabama.

Florida is also a frequent target because some many on the Left do not like Governor Ron DeSantis and his Covid policies.

However, Florida's vaccination rate is almost right at the national average. Are the rise in cases due to the unvaccinated or due to seasonality?

Here are the states at the bottom insofar as new Covid cases.

Note that every one of them is in the north in temperate climates right now.

Source; New York Times

Many have high vaccination rates but what about North Dakota and South Dakota? Michigan's vaccination rate is also about the same as Florida.

Anyone who suggests that seasonality is not a factor in all of this is just ignoring the data.

As I have written many times in these pages, I fervently hope that the vaccines work.

It is the best path forward to normalcy if they are as good as advertised.

However, I cannot help but believe that the vaccines have been overhyped and oversold.

It is becoming increasingly clear in looking at the data that there is zero chance that we are going to get to ZERO Covid anytime soon.

I am particularly interested in what the Covid experience will be at the Olympic Games in Tokyo that begins later this week.

Japan has taken extraordinary measures to insure that Covid does not disrupt the Olympics or their nation. There will be no spectators at the Games. Athletes are tested before leaving their home country and tested again when arriving in Japan. They will undoubtedly each be tested repeatedly during their time in Japan. Many will have been vaccinated. The IOC estimates that 80%+ of the athletes and media members covering the Games will be vaccinated.

How much difference will it make? We will see. However, I think there is zero chance we will not hear  of Covid positives among the athletes. 

One interesting footnote is that Japan is currently having more cases of Covid this year than it did last year when the Games were cancelled.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

Cases in the rest of the world are also higher today than they were a year ago so that also suggests that Japan might have been better off in not delaying the Games.

The higher cases are also despite the fact that vaccines are available in 2021 and no vaccines were available in 2020.

Does that not run counter to the narrative? Does that not suggest that the vaccines are not nearly as effective as we have been told? Why are cases rising as vaccinations around the world are also rising? 

3.65 billion doses of Covid vaccine administered around the world and Covid cases globally are higher today than they were at this time last year?

Source: New York Times

Zero Covid?

Zero Chance anytime soon.

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