If it is business, I want to dig into the numbers and the key ratios.
If it is sports, I want to see the stats.
If it is politics, I want to see the polling data.
I like political polling data in particular in order to provide context and meaning to the bigger political picture. In politics, perception is reality. It does not matter what "the truth" is. It only matters what the people's perception of the truth is.
That is why political consultants work so hard to shape the image and message of a candidate. It is also why the media's role in modern campaigns have become increasingly important through the years. What used to be print media now extends to broadcast, cable and social media.
Some argue that this extension and diffusion of the media is why there is so much political division today. Depending on the outlet, and their outlook, you might find many "truths".
That being said, let's see what the voters seem to thinking right now and I will follow with some observations on the data.
- Trump approval at 50% in Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll (8/14/18).
- +4% higher than Obama at the same point in his Presidency.
This is absolutely remarkable when you consider the ongoing media onslaught on Trump by the mainstream media. How do you explain it?
This explains some of it. This also probably explains why there is such a concerted effort right now to brand Trump as a "racist". If the Democrats lose a third of the Black vote to Trump where do they go for votes? There are just not enough Antifa and Socialist voters to make up for the loss of these voters.
There was another interesting poll out today in Florida where Democrat Senator Bill Nelson is being challenged in the November election by current GOP Governor Rick Scott.
If the Democrat Nelson is only up three points with Florida Latinos over the GOP challenger Scott, he has to be in some real trouble in his re-election bid.
This leads to this poll result.
- A Recent Gallup Poll of voters says that Immigration is the nation's "most important problem".
Look at the numbers since Trump first entered the Presidential race with immigration as one of his signature issues. Do you see a connection with this sentiment and his approval rating? Does this better explain Trump's 50% approval rating despite unrelenting criticism by the media?
I thought the following was also interesting data although not technically a political poll. It is the Small Business Optimism Index. It just had its second highest score since this index has been measured. This is an index based on ten survey indicators conducted monthly by the National Federation of Independent Businesses.
Is it mere coincidence that the optimism index exploded upwards just after Trump was elected?
While we have all of the positive economic news, low unemployment, rising wages and fewer people on food stamps we also have seen Democrats increasingly disapprove of capitalism in comparison with socialism.
- Gallup Poll shows that 57% of Democrats have a favorable view of Socialism. The comparable number for Republicans---16%.
I would suggest that this is a pretty big philosophical divide. It is also hard to explain considering the current economic environment. Where are these people getting their news?
Of course, that poll result has nothing on this one.
- John Zogby Strategies reports that 42% of Democrats and 47% of Blacks are in favor of a state's right to secede from the United States! 39% of all voters surveyed agreed with the right of secession. No, this is not a poll from 1860. This is 2018!
What is ironic about this is that this is exactly why we fought the Civil War. You might remember it. 620,000 Americans died fighting in this war. That is half of all the casualties that have perished in all of the wars in the nation's history.
I guess you could argue that this might not be surprising because Democrats held this view in 1860 as well.
However, how do you explain African Americans having this view?
Do we even teach American History in school any more?
I guess it is a good thing for all concerned that Abraham Lincoln and the Republicans did not agree that states had the right to secede from the union.
This the exact question asked on the survey
Which of the following is closer to your view?
Polls give us a window about what voters are thinking. They give us perspective. They just don't always allow us to always understand why people think the way they do.
This week's polls show that once again.
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