What is the Truth?

Rudy Giuliani made headlines this weekend by stating "that truth is not always the truth."

Rudy has been backpedaling almost as fast as Governor Andrew Cuomo did last week when he said that "America was never that great."

I think what Rudy was trying to say was that "truth" is often perceived in the eyes of the beholder. Look no further than all of the "he said, she said" cases. There is undoubtedly a real truth in these cases. However, our perceptions create our individual reality.

If you don't believe that reality about truth, take a look at this chart that I saw recently in The Daily Shot via Bruce Mehlman.

Could there be that much difference in the perception of current economic conditions?

If you are a Republican things look very good to you. Everything has been on an upward path since President Trump was elected.

If you are an Independent things look pretty good to you. The Trump election boosted confidence immediately and things have been pretty steady since.

If you are a Democrat you seem to think a recession started when Trump was elected and it has turned into a full-fledged depression in the last couple of months.

What is the truth?

GDP was up 4.1% last quarter.

The unemployment rate is 3.9% with record low unemployment for Blacks, Hispanics, Youths and High School Drop-outs.

Small business optimism is near record highs.

The stock market (DJIA) is up almost 40% since Trump was elected.

These all support the truth that Republicans see.

On the other hand, these are also truths that the Democrats could point to.

Income inequality is rising.

Personal (especially student debt) and government debt is reaching unsustainable levels.

Trade tensions are increasing with our largest trading partners.

The length of the bull market in stocks is now a record.

Donald Trump is President and the more success he has the more depressed the Democrats get.

There is a lot of truth out there. The question is how is it perceived through our political lens?

Speaking about truth, how about this? This is the headline from Small Business Trends reporting on a recent survey of 2,600 small business owner and entrepreneur conducted by Guidant Financial.


Wow! African American Small Business Ownership Up 400% in a Year, Survey Reveals


If this is true, there could be no bigger endorsement of the Trump economy that I have seen. That is an astounding finding. It should be shouted from every rooftop in America.

However, I have my doubts about the data. It simply does not seem realistic that there could be a 400% increase in that number in the space of one year.

I tried to get to the survey source material to see if I could better understand the data. However, the best I could do was get this press release that Guidant Financial put out on the survey which it has conducted for a number of years.

I am not saying that this is "Fake News" or Guidant is intentionally putting out false data. The numbers just don't seem to pass the common sense test. I question the methodology of the survey and/or the base period numbers they are using as comparisons.

Guidant goes on to state that 45% of all small businesses in the United States are now owned by minorities. They state that number was only 15% in 2015. Minority-owned businesses have tripled in three years? Again, this does not seem realistic no matter how you look at it.

According to the survey, the ownership of small businesses today in the United States is 55% white, 19% Black, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 4% Native Americans.

If we are to believe the Guidant survey, Black-owned businesses went from 3.8% to 19% in one year! To put that in perspective, African Americans make up about 13% of the population.

Perhaps this is the reason that Trump support with African Americans has gone from 8% in November, 2016 to 36% approval last week.

If this is true, it should also raise questions as to why the Democrats want to keep pushing a socialist agenda.

This survey seem to indicate that all the new entrepreneurs are minorities. They are the very definition of what capitalism is all about.

You also have to ask if that many minorities are starting small businesses how could they be Democrats? Just look at the perception of economic conditions in the chart above. If you were a Democrat today, why would you even think about starting a small business if you had that pessimistic outlook?

What is truth?

Sometimes it is very hard to tell.

As Rudy Giuliani stated, "truth is not always the truth." It just depends on how you look at it.