Where Does It Go From Here?

Where does it go from here?

That is the question in the wake of the conviction of Paul Manafort on eight counts of tax evasion and bank fraud and the guilty plea of former Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen to a federal election campaign contribution violation

Liberal Democrats seem to be giddy in thinking that this will be the end of Trump.

Are they right? Let's consider the possibilities.

Manafort

The Democrats like to make much of the fact that Manfort for a time was Trump's campaign chairman. However, he only had that role for a relatively short period of time---5 months in total (3 months as Chairman) in a campaign that consumed over 18 months. In the overall scheme of the election of Trump, Manafort had a very insignificant impact. He joined the campaign after Trump had wrapped up the primary elections and he was gone by the time the general election began in earnest.

The one lasting impact that Manafort had was influencing Trump to select Mike Pence as his running mate. (more on that later).

The fact is that Manafort was convicted of crimes that had absolutely nothing to do with Trump. 5 counts of filing false tax returns (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015), 2 counts related to bank fraud by lying on loan applications, and a final count of maintaining a foreign bank account without reporting it to the IRS.

The entire prosecution of Manafort appears to have been motivated in order to squeeze him by getting him to give up something on Trump. Why else were these charges brought by Special Counsel Mueller now? What was the IRS doing for all those years if Manafort was committing tax fraud that was so obvious in 2011, 2012 etc.

Manafort's conviction did not surprise me. I wrote about the charges against Manafort right after he was indicted last November. Nothing he did with his work with foreign interests looked good.

Then again, as I wrote  at that time, nothing looks good about how Bill and Hillary Clinton and Clinton Foundation operated with foreign interests either. However, Manafort is paying a price (apparently targeted for no other reason than he worked for Trump) and Bill and Hillary are still fancy free.

Cohen

The Michael Cohen case looks more dangerous for the President. He admitted that he paid off two women who threatened to expose a sexual relationship with Trump at the direction of Trump in order to "influence the election." The charge against Cohen is that this was a federal election campaign violation.

Although it is not getting much attention, Cohen also pled guilty to five counts of filing false tax returns (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016) and one count of bank fraud. Do you see a pattern here?

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Paying someone off is not generally a crime. However, attempting to blackmail someone is. The irony is that the women who attempted to commit the crime of blackmail have gotten no legal scrutiny while Cohen has been prosecuted.

The government's case seems to hinge on the words "influence the election". If Cohen had made these payments in order to protect Trump's reputation there would apparently be nothing here. However, the government is arguing that the payments were made in order to "influence the election" of Trump. By getting Cohen to plead guilty to this charge, and getting Cohen to say he was acting at the direction of Trump, they are attempting to color Trump with the charge as well.

It is interesting that the only "crime" here seems to be that this expenditure was made through a corporate entity and was above legal limits.  It was also was not done with campaign funds. The government is arguing that it was an "in kind" contribution. They have decided it was a campaign contribution. This seems awfully flimsy to me especially when you consider that most campaign finance violations only result in civil penalties involving a fine.

You should consider the fact that had these payments been made with actual campaign money I have no doubt that this would have been considered the payment of a personal expenditure. However, the government has constructed that payment. How do you win when they can skewer you either way?

Make no mistake, the Cohen prosecution and any deal with prosecutors is also being done solely to get him to turn on Trump. Given Cohen's long association with Trump, the President clearly has more risk with Cohen than he does with Manafort. However, I doubt anything he has on Trump is related to Russian collusion in the election.

This is all to say that everything about the Mueller investigation seems to be building a political movement to remove Trump. Most legal scholars question whether the President can even be indicted when he is in office. The exclusive means to remove a President is through the impeachment process.

When Mueller issues a final report (if he ever does) that implicates Trump in some way, it will be to argue for impeachment rather than indictment.

Parallels With Clinton

We have been down this road before. Bill Clinton also liked the ladies. That was known before his election. He perjured himself while in office attempting to cover up his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

The Republicans, who had a majority in the House, impeached Clinton for "high crimes and misdemeanors". Democrats shrugged their shoulders and said "it was just about sex". They said that it was understandable he would lie.

The American people agreed. The economy was good and nobody wanted to rock the boat.

It is not much different today.

The people who voted Trump into office knew that they were not electing a Boy Scout. If they wanted that, Mitt Romney would be in the second term of his Presidency.

If this is all that there is, this will not go very far. If anything, Trump's actions fall far short of Clinton's. All of this happened before Trump was even elected. The alleged affairs with the women were ten years ago. Clinton was actually doing IT in the Oval Office with an intern.

If there is more here then it will depend on the American people. As I have written before, that is where all the power comes from in this country. Clinton did not lose the people in 1998-1999. Trump will be fine unless he loses the support of the people. If that happens, the politicians will feel free to do whatever they please. And most, on both sides, would be pleased to do what they pleased with Trump.

Of course, you have to ask if that happened, do the Democrats really want a President Mike Pence?

I have always thought that one of the great ironies of the Clinton impeachment saga was that if Clinton had been impeached, Al Gore would have become President in 1999. Gore would have run in the 2000 election as a sitting President against George W. Bush. Can you tell me that Gore would not have won the additional 538 votes in Florida that he needed due to that fact?

In hindsight, the best long game for Democrats would have been for Clinton to be removed and Gore to become President.

The GOP was so blinded by Clinton that they took on an impossible impeachment proceeding. The Democrats were so blinded in protecting Clinton that they lost sight of the bigger prize.

Similarly, are the Democrats so blinded in their hatred of Trump today that are they missing the bigger picture?

Mike Pence

Mike Pence has been a consistent conservative his whole life. He doesn't say outrageous things. He doesn't burn up Twitter. He doesn't even go to lunch alone with a member of the opposite sex. There is not much to believe that a Pence agenda would be much different than Trump's. It would just be delivered with far less bombast.

If Pence took office after next January 20, he can serve out the rest of the Trump term and he is eligible for two more terms of office. You can potentially appoint a lot of federal judges and Supreme Court justices over ten years.

All that being said, the Democrats still would prefer to be rid of Trump. They fear his charisma and his fearlessness. They fear his energy and ability to energize a crowd. They fear his ability to attract the votes of Democrats and minorities. That is why I think they are willing to take their chances with Pence.

Where does it go from here?

I have no idea. To this point, I see nothing that causes me any concerns about Trump. There is nothing new here from my perspective.

However, I like the prospects for the future however the cards may fall.