Monday, June 6, 2022

Things That Make You Go Hmmm-June 6, 2022 Edition

Covid Vaccines for Children

The FDA is reported to be close to allowing the Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines to be administered to children under age 5 under an emergency use authorization (EUA).

The Pfizer vaccines were granted EUA status for 5-11 year olds last October. Last month emergency use authorization was given for booster shots for these children.

This slide was in the presentation where discussions took place on whether the EUA should be extended for younger children and for the use of booster shots.


Credit: https://twitter.com/covid_clarity/status/1532024672677638144/photo/1


5-11 year old kids 37x more likely to die in an accident than from Covid.

10x more likely to be the victim of a homicide.

3x more likely to die from a suicide and these are elementary age children.

The Covid vaccines are necessary for children because this is an EMERGENCY?

Hmmmm.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Joe Biden announced in November that he was going to take oil out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to bring the price of gasoline down.

All Biden has done is further weakened our national security.

It might as well be called a "Strategic Political Reserve" based on how Biden is using it.


Credit: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1532395442444673025/photo/1


The price of oil was $75.50/barrel when Biden started raiding the SPR for political reasons.

It is now over $120/barrel.

The SPR was intended to be used when there were supply disruptions when oil could literally not be obtained at any price due to supply cutoffs.

The SPR now has smaller reserves that at any time in the last 30 years.

What happens if a hurricane disrupts supplies in the Gulf Coast states?

What if Saudi Arabia refused to ship us any oil at all?

President Trump wanted to fill the SPR to the brim when oil prices were below $30/barrel. He was rebuffed by Congress.

Biden says he will replenish the SPR.

At what price will that be?

What price will the America people pay if the oil runs out and there is no reserve left?

Hmmm.

American Income Levels By Age

Below are two interesting charts that show the % of earners who make more than $50K and $100K by age.

The first chart shows the $50K income level.

The biggest income gains are made by people between age 30 and 35.

At age 35 the income trajectory of most people levels off. Your relative position is not likely to change a lot from that point forward based on this data.


Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/american-income-levels-by-age-group/

The second chart shows the $100K level.

Interestingly, the only ages where more than 20% of those are making six figures is in those over age 65.

I guess seniority has its advantages if you can hang on and continue to work that long.


Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/american-income-levels-by-age-group/

Hmmm.


This is Green?

We hear a lot these day about the need to be GREEN.

We are supposed to  think about SUSTAINABILITY in all that we do.

This includes using alternative energy sources (wind, solar etc) and electric vehicles.

This is what we supposedly should we doing in order to save our planet.

However, I thought this was an interesting chart that compares the earth minerals required in an electric car vs. a conventional vehicle and the minerals used in various forms of power generation.



This is green?

Hmmm.


eBay vs. Amazon

There has been a lot of losses on the NASDAQ this year which is home to many stocks that are considered to be economic disruptors.

These stocks often get ahead of themselves as investors are more excited with the story than the company is able to ultimately fulfill those dreams with revenues and profits.

I am reminded of the stock of RCA when radio was just finding its way into every American living room.

RCA hit a high just before the crash of 1929 and it took well over 30 years for it to again reach that stock price.  In the meantime, RCA had also moved into televisions.

The internet/e-commerce boom of 1998-1999 was similar to what we saw in the late 1920's.

For example, consider this Business Week cover from 1999 asking which was the better investment---eBay or Amazon?


Credit: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1533128351476506626


At that time eBay had a higher market cap than Amazon.

That was also true in 2001 after the internet bubble popped in 2000.

eBay had a market cap of $13 billion in January, 2001. Amazon was valued at $6 billion.

Investors viewed eBay with the brighter prospects long term.

What about the next 20 years?

eBay now has a market cap of $26 billion but it is actually no higher than it was in 1999.



On the other hand, Amazon has grown from a company worth $6 billon in 2001 to one now valued at over $1 trillion.



Investors 20 years ago were too optimistic about the prospects of eBay and vastly undervalued the potential of Amazon.

The question now is which one of those NASDAQ stocks that have been hit hard in 2022 will be the Amazon of the next 20 years?

There must be a pony in there somewhere? *


Hmmm.


* Taken from one of Ronald Reagan's favorite stories.

Worried that the boys had developed extreme personalities -- one was a total pessimist, the other a total optimist -- their parents took them to a psychiatrist

First the psychiatrist treated the pessimist. Trying to brighten his outlook, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with brand-new toys. But instead of yelping with delight, the little boy burst into tears. "What's the matter?" the psychiatrist asked, baffled. "Don't you want to play with any of the toys?" "Yes," the little boy bawled, "but if I did I'd only break them."

Next the psychiatrist treated the optimist. Trying to dampen his out look, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with horse manure. But instead of wrinkling his nose in disgust, the optimist emitted just the yelp of delight the psychiatrist had been hoping to hear from his brother, the pessimist. Then he clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. "What do you think you're doing?" the psychiatrist asked, just as baffled by the optimist as he had been by the pessimist. "With all this manure," the little boy replied, beaming, "there must be a pony in here somewhere!"

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