Ideology and Science

It seems that most everywhere you go these days more and more people have accepted the risks of Covid.

For the most part, stadiums, restaurants, bars and airplanes are full. Students are in classrooms. Fewer and fewer people are working from home.

Some still wear masks in public but it is a distinct minority (5%-10% or less) in most places I visit.

It is an interesting change in perspective even though the data shows that there are about twice as many new cases of Covid being reported now (7-day average) as there were two years ago.

Bear in mind that the 2022 numbers are undoubtedly massively understated as well due to the marked increase in self-tests that are never reported.

August 31, 2020. 

August 31, 2022

Of course, if we were to look back a year ago the reported case numbers were much worse than they are today. However, self-tests were still difficult to obtain at this time last year so it is very likely that the real 2022 number is not much different than 2021.

It is obvious that a big reason that more people have accepted the risks of Covid is that we are seeing fewer cases of severe disease, hospitalizations and deaths.

Covid hospitalizations are down over 60% since this time last year.

This is incredibly positive news that supports why people are more accepting of the risks of Covid.

I am also sure that many would point to that drop in hospitalizations between last year and this year and attribute it to the vaccines.

However, why then did hospitalizations increase almost 3-fold in 2021 (post-vaccination) compared to 2020 (pre-vaccination)?

Is it also possible that the decrease in severity of Covid is due to the fact that the virus is far less virulent today than it was previously?

Might it also be that natural immunity, given the huge numbers exposed to the virus over the last year, has provided a layer of extra protection to society?

The New York Times recently conducted a poll with the The Morning Consult that documents some of the changing personal perspectives of people concerning Covid.

What I found interesting is how much that poll reveals how sharply views about Covid are shaped by ideology...and even age.

For example, 34% of those who describe themselves as very liberal state that they see Covid as a "great personal risk."

That is a big improvement from the 47% in that group that saw it that way in March.

However, compare this group to other adult groups based on ideology.

What is also interesting is that the youngest age group (18-34), which has the lowest risk from Covid, is the group must likely to always wear a mask in public.

However, as you might expect by looking at the graph above, it is those who are "very liberal" that you can most expect to see wearing a mask (44%).

33% of Liberals always don a mask. Only 18% of those who are Very Conservative do.

Even The New York Times pointed out none of this makes sense based on the "science".

Very liberal Americans remain more worried about the virus than almost any other demographic group, including the elderly.

That pattern does not seem consistent with scientific reality, given that the very liberal are younger than any other ideological group and that Covid’s effects are far worse for older people. But the pattern may help explain why young people in our poll reported wearing masks slightly more often than older people — and why the few schools and workplaces that still have mask mandates tend to be in liberal enclaves.

I also find it interesting that we were often told that masking was not so much about your personal protection but about protecting others.

I would guess this would be the primary reason that those who are "very liberal" would give for wearing the mask. They are not doing it for themselves but for everyone else.

However, is it just a coincidence that the same group that says "Covid presents a great PERSONAL risk" to them is also the group that is masking the most?

This week the FDA provided emergency use authorizations for Pfizer and Moderna to distribute new booster shots with the stated purpose of offering better protection to the Omicron variants.

These are bivalent vaccines meaning that they are meant to target both the original Covid strain and the Omicron variant in the same dose.

These should be available for those over age 12 (Pfizer) and age 18 (Moderna) as soon as next week.

Source: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-moderna-pfizer-biontech-bivalent-covid-19-vaccines-use

I think I can predict who will be first in line to take the new booster doses.

How safe and effective are the new booster doses?

Are there are risks that outweigh the benefits in taking this new booster dose?

The FDA states that they believe the benefits outweigh the risks.

However, there were a mere 800 people in each clinical trial and these people were only followed for less than two months for safety issues after being vaccinated. 

The effectiveness of the new vaccines were not even tested on humans.

I will say that again.

The new vaccine boosters have not even been tested for effectiveness in humans.

The FDA is relying on pre-clinical trials with eight mice that showed an increase in antibody levels as the basis for the claim that the vaccines are effective.

This is an excerpt of an Q&A in Mercury News on whether you should take the new booster.

(Underlines for emphasis added by BeeLine)

Q: Why is this booster being rolled out, if it hasn’t yet been proven effective in people?

A: The FDA says the shots are safe and will help fend off disease. “How confident am I?” Dr. Peter Marks, the FDA’s top vaccine regulator, said in an interview with the New York Times. “I’m extremely confident.”

In preclinical data presented by both Pfizer and Moderna to the FDA in June, the bivalent vaccine design performed better than the single-target vaccine.

In eight mice, Pfizer’s bivalent booster generated a 2.6-fold increase in neutralizing antibody levels against the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, compared with the companies’ current booster. Lab work by Moderna showed its new booster increased neutralizing antibodies against the new variants 8-fold, while the original booster only increased antibody levels around 4.4-fold.

The companies are now conducting clinical studies in humans. But those results probably won’t be ready until late October or early November.

In looking at the numbers above, don't you have to ask what the emergency is right now?

How is it conceivably in the public's interest to rush a vaccine to market that has not even been proven effective beyond the immune response in eight mice?

Is this what public health has become?

What other proof do you need to see that ideology drives public health policy no differently than it does anybody else.