Will in Short Supply

 

Credit: https://fixwillpower.com/blog/21-willpower-quotes/

Credit: https://fixwillpower.com/blog/21-willpower-quotes/

I am reminded of these quotes as I consider much of what is going on in the world today.

For the most part, there is an easy answer about much of what needs to be done. 

What is missing is the willpower to do it.

For example, Major League Baseball has been concerned for some time about the length of its games.

When I was young I use to look at the box scores of all the games in the paper every day,

It was not often a game lasted more than 2-1/2 hours.

The average game now consumes 3 hours and 10 minutes.

MLB has been trying to trim the time of games the last few years.

It has introduced pitchless intentional walks. Relief pitchers must now face at least three batters before they can be replaced. In extra innings games, each team starts with a runner on second place in an attempt to end the game quicker.

Last week the MLB Competition Committee approved a pitch clock for the 2023 season with a goal of speeding up the game.

MLB pitchers will have 20 seconds to begin their throwing motions with runners on base and will get 15 seconds to do so with the bases empty. 

A pitcher who does not comply with the new rule will be assessed a ball for the delayed pitch.

What I found interesting is that the rules of baseball have had a rule on the books for a long, long time that requires the pitcher to deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds.

However, the rule has never been enforced. There was no will to do it.

MLB Rules of Baseball-Rule 8.04

When the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds after he receives the ball. Each time the pitcher delays the game by violating this rule, the umpire shall call "Ball."

The 12-second timing starts when the pitcher is in possession of the ball and the batter is in the box, alert to the pitcher. The timing stops when the pitcher releases the ball.

The intent of this rule is to avoid unnecessary delays. The umpire shall insist that the catcher return the ball promptly to the pitcher, and that the pitcher take his position on the rubber promptly. Obvious delay by the pitcher should instantly be penalized by the umpire.

Did MLB really need the Competition Committee to write a new rule?

The only thing that was lacking was the WILL to enforce the rules already established. 

The same lack of WILL is apparent in our immigration policy.

The law is very clear. The current immigration laws go back decades and decades.

The only problem is the lack of will to enforce the law that is already on the books.

It has been more or less the same for most of the last 40 years regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans were in power. Donald Trump was the one exception but he did not get much help from Congress in trying to fix the problem.

There has not only been the lack of will to enforce existing law but there has also been a lack of will to change the law with an updated immigration reform bill.

The Democrats lack the will because the lack of enforcement means many more immigrants get into the country today than would ever be allowed under any immigration reform policy that could pass the Congress.

The Republicans lack the will because they know that any immigration reform bill would likely increase the legal limit that is in the law today. They simply lack the will to face their supporters on the issue.

We are also experiencing an extraordinary lack of will by the Federal Reserve in dealing with inflation today.

It is true that the Fed has been raising interest rates. However, it looks to be too little and much too late.

When Paul Volcker headed the Federal Reserve in the late 1970's and early 1980's, and was dealing with similar inflation pressures, he aggressively increased interest rates.

The Fed Funds rate was pretty close to the inflation rate when Volcker first took over the Fed. That made real interest rates about 0%.

We are in a much worse position today.

As inflation really spiked in 1980 real interest rates (1-year T-bill minus inflation) dropped to -6%. That is when Volcker took very aggressive action. He kept raising interest rates until the real rate was almost 8%.

Before Jerome Powell's Fed started increasing interest rates earlier this year real interest rates were -7%.

Inflation is still  running over 8% with nominal interest rates of less than 4% resulting in a -4% real rate.

Credit: Longtermtrends.net

We are a long, long, long way from being anywhere close to what Paul Volcker did to stamp out inflation in the 1980's.

Does the Federal Reserve have the WILL to do what is necessary to combat inflation?

It does not appear that they do when only raising interest rates .75% at a time.

Let us also not forget that the Fed is holding close to $9 trillion of U.S. treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities from its Quantitative Easing (money printing) program that was initiated in 2008 and went into hyperdrive in the last two years.

These are debt securities the Fed "purchased" that did not require the private debt market to fund the money.

The Fed simply created the money out of thin air.

We were told that all of this QE would eventually be unwound through a Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.

It would seem that this should be moving forward at some pace about now to rein in inflation.

However, in the last year, the Fed has increased its balance sheet by over $500 billion. 

This is despite the fact inflation was already over 5% a year ago, well above the Fed's stated 2% target.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220915/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Credit: https://rudy.substack.com/p/more-fun-in-the-new-world?utm_source=email

Even more telling is that in the last week the Fed balance sheet actually increased rather than decreased.

You have to ask if there is enough WILL to do what is necessary?

Yes, I know raising interest rates is going to be painful.

However, it is going to be a whole lot more painful if inflation is not brought under control.

Is there anything I can point to where WILL is not in short supply right now?

I suggest looking to Ukraine.

There are a lot of questions about what is going on in Ukraine and the extent to which the United States should be funding and arming the Zelensky regime there.

However, you cannot discount the WILL of the Ukraine people to resist and fight for their country.

You also have to ask how much WILL the Russian army has to wage war in that theater considering the events of the last couple of weeks.

The Ukrainians are advancing and the Russians are retreating.

Who would have thought that possible six months ago?

I guess it just goes to show what the right weapons and a lot of WILL can do.