Conflicts and wars do not end until one side accepts their fate.
Peace is not achieved until one side realizes the balance of power is such that it is futile to continue the conflict.
The costs of continuing the conflict are finally determined to be greater than the hope that any benefit is going to be gained.
There are times that both sides come to that conclusion, each accepts their fate, and an uneasy truce is the result.
However, true peace is generally only achieved when one side effectively admits that their cause is lost and ceases putting up a fight.
This was the case with Germany and Japan in World War II and it was the case with the Confederacy in the Civil War.
In politics, it manifests itself in a little different way. One side becomes effectively marginalized and has limited power when they are on the losing side of a big issue.
This was the case with Democrats who opposed the abolition of slavery in the name of states' rights in the 1860's. As a result, Republicans took control of the levers of power in the U.S. Congress and the Democrats lost their central issue based on the will of the American people.
Republicans more or less controlled Congress for much of the next 70 years.
The speed of change in political affiliation coming out of the Civil War was mind boggling.
Democrats controlled almost 70% of Senate seats in 1857. By 1864, They had less than 20% of the seats in the U.S. Senate.
You can see that in this chart that shows control of the Senate and House from 1855-2022.
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| Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses |
The same was true for Republicans as they argued against the expanded use of federal powers beginning with The New Deal. They lost the argument to the American people and were in a period of irrelevancy in Congress for over 60 years.
However, since 1996 neither party has been able to attain a significant majority of seats in either the House of Senate so as to be considered dominant. We have been in an era of political division that continues to manifest itself in every aspect of life today in the United States.
It should also not go unnoticed that both of these crisis periods in American history acted as a catalyst for one party to become dominant with the American voters. One party was judged to be with the mainstream of American voters. The other essentially became irrelevant.
All of this is worth considering as we examine the events going on in the United States right now.
Joe Biden ran on a promise of being a uniter rather than a divider.
Biden has not united anything because he made a choice to align himself with most of the far-left tendencies of his party.
As a result, the country remains more divided than ever.
Will this division continue or could we be entering a period where one political party becomes marginalized because they are judged to be out of step with the mainstream?
That is a big question leading up to this year's mid-term elections.
In recent years the Democrat party has been increasingly controlled by those on the far left of the political spectrum who want to reform and remake what they see as an evil and flawed country.
Democrats who run for office and do not cater to this constituency have limited prospects because they know that if they do they risk losing a small (<30%) but critical portion of their base of support.
This puts Democrats in a very tough position. They cannot afford to lose the support of the radical left in their party. However, they also cannot afford to lose any more traditional working class voters. They also have to appease the radicals while trying to convince suburban women (a gender that Democrats are not even willing to define) that they are really not going to defund the police, support no bail policies and allow Antifa and BLM radicals to start storming and threatening suburban neighborhoods.
The 2020 mid-term election also looks like it will test whether the Democrats are able to retain the Hispanic vote which has traditionally been an important voting bloc for the party.
The Latino vote went heavily for Democrats in 2008, 2012 and 2016.
In 2020, Trump got about 38% of the Hispanic vote---a 10 point increase from four years before.
A Rasmussen poll this week about a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Biden in 2024 indicates that Trump would carry Hispanics by 12 points.
That is a 46 POINT improvement compared to two years ago.
That is also DOUBLE the margin that Trump had over Biden in the poll with White voters!
If this poll is only half right, the Democrats are in deep, deep trouble.
If you look again at the charts above, the country has shifted more Republican than Democrat over the last 25 years. The 2008 election of Obama and the Democrats gaining control of the House and Senate was an anomaly due to the 2008 financial crisis. That move to the Democrats was quickly reversed when they tried to govern with a much more liberal platform than they ran on.
This resulted in the enormous gains that the GOP made in subsequent elections and ultimately led to Donald Trump winning the Presidency.
For example, this chart shows how Republicans have come to dominate state legislatures since 1994.
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| Source: https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/1589260955254004648/2067408791901872812 |
However, what stands out in looking at the makeup of Congress over the last 25 years is how evenly divided it has been compared to other periods since the Civil War.
Will this continue?
History suggests that our divided government will come to end soon.
And right now the Republicans look to be better positioned to be the dominant national political party..
The voters in the country still lean center right. This Gallup survey shows that the number of voters who describe themselves as conservative or moderate outnumber self-described liberals by three to one.
At the same time, half of Democrats now refer to themselves as liberal.
In 1994, only 25% of Democrats considered themselves liberal. That is the same percentage of Democrats who identified as conservative in 1994.
This has meant that Democrats who consider themselves conservative or moderate have fled the party.
Is is just a coincidence that the success of Democrats at the ballot box has declined as the influence of liberalism has increased in the Democrat party?
You can see how far outside the mainstream views the average Democrat is when looking at this poll question posed by FoxNews last week.
The biggest question in the upcoming mid-term election is whether significant majorities of Hispanics and Independents are going to stand by and endorse what Biden and the Democrats have done to the country in less than two short years.
Women who are Independents are particularly important in this regard.
A New York Times/Siena College poll this week showed Independents favoring Republicans by 10 points and Independent Women by 18 points in the generic Congressional ballot.
In a little over two weeks we will find out whether the polls are right or wrong.
What we know for certain is that in the United States system, the voters can get any type of government they want.
They can completely remake the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate in two years. Two-thirds of the Senate and the Presidency can be overhauled in four years. The entire national electoral body can be undone in six years.
It has been done before.
Look again at the graphs above on what happened in the wake of the Civil War and Great Depression.
I believe the only way out out of the mess we are in right now is to send a loud and convincing message to Democrats that they are on the wrong path.
I also don't see how the Democrats survive long term as a viable party longer term without the working class, rural voters, Independents and Hispanics.
How successful can you be as a national party that primarily appeals to Blacks, urban dweller, single women and college-educated voters?
If the Democrats take a beating at the polls in a couple of weeks you can be sure they will be looking for someone to blame.
They will be unlikely to blame their policies. Most likely it will be Joe Biden (and his son Hunter) that will be singled out for their failures.
However, ignoring the will of the voters for long is sure to guarantee that you are soon on the outside looking in when it comes to political power.
A huge red wave should also end any talk that Biden will run in 2024. With few in his own party willing to stand up for him, he may face a very difficult time in his remaining term.
2024 will likely be the real test as to whether the Democrats maintain relevancy as a national party.
It will be a Presidential election year.
There are also 23 Democrat Senate seats that must be defended out of 33 seats up for election.
As always polls do not matter.
The only thing that matters are the votes of the people.
In the end, the people get the government they deserve---good or bad.
It is also absolutely true that politicians who do not heed the will of the voters do not retain their power for very long.
We will know a lot more about whether our political divisions may have a chance at receding in a few short weeks.
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