Time For Age Limits

We have all seen many cringe worthy moments with Joe Biden over the last three years.

Does he know where he is?

Does he know where he is going?

What did he just say?

This is a man who will turn 82 years old just after the 2024 election.

It is frightening to think of what another four years could be like with that much more mileage on good old Joe.

We have seen the spectacle of 90 year old Senator Diane Feinstein of California where she was told by another senator to just say "aye".

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-dianne-feinstein-told-just-say-aye-awkward-senate-committee-moment-rcna96697

We have recently seen Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell freeze up twice in front of the cameras seemingly unable to speak.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/08/30/mitch-mcconnell-freezes-again/70719637007/

83-year old Nancy Pelosi recently announced that she is going to see another Congressional term next year.

Kudos to Utah Senator Mitt Romney who recently announced he would not run for re-election year year.

The major reason was the fact that the would be in his mid-80's. by the end of the next term and and says it is time for a new generation of leaders.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/13/politics/mitt-romney-not-running-reelection/index.html

If you read between the lines you can see that Romney is also suggesting that Biden and Trump step aside.

Donald Trump will be 78 years old in November, 2024. The is the same age Biden was on Inauguration Day in 2020.

Are we really going to see a Presidential election in 2024 that pits an 82 year old and a 78 year old for President of the United States?

The Vegas oddsmakers say yes right now.

However, BeeLine has put the odds of both Trump and Biden being on the general election ballot in 2024 as less than 1%.

This is the prediction I made on January 16, 2023 in these pages.

I don't like making political predictions because it is too easy to be wrong. I prefer analysis based on data.

However, if I were to place odds on Biden 2.0 vs. Trump 2.0 right now, I would suggest there is only a 1% chance that both Biden and Trump will be the candidates on the final ballot in 2024.

We will find out once again whether I should stay out of the prediction business.

We also have the interesting chart on the aging of our politicians that follows below.

This shows the percentage of those in Congress who were 70 years of age or older in all years dating back to 1800.

It shows that the percent who were 70 or older jumped from 8% in 2002 to 23% in 2022.

Credit: https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-oldest-history-gerontocracy-lawmakers-2022-9

Many say the answer to aging politicians is term limits.

I disagree.

I believe it would make much more sense to implement age limits for all federal elected offices through a constitutional amendment.

I wrote about this in 2018 well before we knew we knew we might be facing the prospects of an 80+ year old President.

My proposal is simple.

An age limit of 65 years of age for a member of the House of Representatives.

An age limit of 70 years for the U,S. Senate.

An age limit fo 75 years for the Presidency.

These are calculated using the minimum age for each office as established in the U,S. Constitution plus 40 years.

If this had been adopted in 2018, when I proposed it. we would not be looking at Biden vs. Trump in 2024. They would both be ineligible.

Feinstein and McConnell would not now be in the U.S. Senate.

Take a look at what I wrote in 2018 for more depth and context on why I think age limits deserve consideration.

Age Limits Rather Than Term Limits?

(originally published May 20, 2018)

We hear a lot about the need for term limits for our elected representatives.

In fact, President Trump recently reiterated his support for Congressional term limits.

I have mixed feelings about term limits. I like the fact that it forces new blood and new ideas into our political system but I also see value in having those with institutional experience in charge to provide the necessary leadership and perspective to the legislative process.

We have had legislative term limits in Ohio since 1992 (limit of no more than four 2-year terms in the House and two 4-year terms in the Senate) but I have seen little evidence that it has had much effect on the political class. It seems to have mainly created a lot of political gamesmanship. A House member is term-limited and then moves to the Senate. A Senator becomes a County Commissioner and then comes back and runs again for the Senate.

As I wrote in "It's All In The Name", the largest asset a politician has is their name identification. The substantial "asset value" that a politician has in his or her name is also the reason why so many politicians have a hard time stepping away. They know they have an "asset" and they want to use it. It really becomes a question of "use it or lose it."

The Toledo Blade did a story in 2015 on why "Term limits do little to oust Ohio lawmakers"  where it reported on the political games being played because of those term limits.

It's been two decades since Ohio voters amended their constitution to cap the number of consecutive years a state lawmaker can hold his office.

But today, five state representatives and a senator who were here in the General Assembly when the term-limits clock first started ticking are still here, their service uninterrupted as they've jumped from one chamber to the other and back again.

Two will have 30 or more years under their belts by the end of the current session.

Term limits were very popular in the 1990's. 14 of the 15 states that now have term limits on the books enacted that provision during that decade. Nebraska was the last to enact term limits in 2000.

After thinking about all of this I believe that it might make more sense to consider age limits or a mandatory retirement age rather than Congressional term limits.

I know that it would spark cries of ageism and all the rest but it would prevent some of the problems with term limits while also providing the opportunity to infuse new blood into Congress from time to time.

It seems that I am not the only one thinking about this. Consider this question that was put to Democrat House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on the CNN Town Hall this week that was hosted by Chris Cuomo.

CUOMO: "I have something for you along these lines. You gave as you good segue there. I want to bring in Mary Pat, retired, lives in Maryland. Mary Pat, what is your question? A beautiful scarf you have on."MARY PAT: "Leader Pelosi, quorum.us says more than half the senators running for re-election this year are over 65 years old. If they win, their term of service will be six years. Their constituents are about 20 years younger. Isn't it time for some members to return to private service and to encourage younger folks run for office so --"[ applause ]

I am certainly not suggesting that there is a certain age at which someone is not fit to serve. For example, consider this story and video of 83-year old Senator Chuck Grassley pounding out 19 push ups to best a teenage student at an Iowa school meeting. No one should say that Grassley is not fit to serve.

It just seems logical that at some point the decisions affecting the nation and its future should be turned over to the next generation. Does it make sense for an 80-year old to be voting on legislation that will affect the lives of those much younger who will have to live under those laws for a much longer time than that Senator?

It should also be remembered that the U.S. Constitution already has an established minimum age criteria for the U.S. House (25 years), Senate (30 years) and President (35 years). Our Founders saw the wisdom of that minimum age to insure that there would be a basic level of maturity and life experience in our elected leaders. Perhaps there should also be a maximum as well?

It is also not uncommon to see required retirement ages in the corporate world for CEO's and Board members. It seems to be understood that at some point there comes a time when you should step aside for the good of the organization to let a new generations of leaders have their opportunity.

My suggestion would be to cap the maximum age at which a federal elected official could be sworn into office at 40 years from the minimum age to serve that is currently established in the U.S. Constitution. Thus, a House member could not be more than 65 years of age or a Senator older than 70 when beginning a new term of service. I would add an age 75 limit to the President in addition to the term limit already in place. This effectively would mean that there would be no House members older than 67, Senate members older than 76 or a President who was 79 or older based on the required retirement age limit.

What effect would this have if it was in place right now?

President Trump would still be eligible to run for re-election in 2020 as he would  be under the age 75 age limit on Inauguration Day January 20, 2021. (Trump will not be age 75 until June 14, 2021)

Interestingly, not one of the 45 Presidents we have had would have been precluded from serving if this provision had been in place from the beginning of the nation's founding.

However, this provision would prevent Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden from running for President in 2020 if it were in effect. It would also mean that Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren could run in 2020 but each would be precluded from running for re-election in 2024 as they would be beyond the age limit on Inauguration Day 2025. If you are a Democrat can you honestly say that it is a bad idea to have these people step aside and allow for some fresh faces in the party?

The biggest effect would be on the U.S. Senate.

There are currently 7 Senators that are at least 80 years of age. (Shelby-AL, McCain-AZ, Feinstein-CA, Grassley-IA, Roberts-KA, Inhofe-OK, Hatch-UT.

There are an additional 18 Senators that are at least 70 years of age.

The average age of a Senator right now is 61 and the U.S Representative average is 57. These are both about the oldest averages in our nation's history. By comparison, as recently as 1981, the average Senator's age was 53 and the average Representative was 49. On average, both are now 8 years older than they were 35 years ago.

Quorum recently did a study for the 115th Congress and found that in 44 of U.S House districts the age of the Representative was at least double the median age of those they represented. In 38 of the 44 districts the Representative won re-election with at least 60% of the vote. Name ID is everything and the reality is that most of these politicians are not leaving the pay, privileges and perks of Congress voluntarily. It is almost as if they have a lifetime taxpayer-paid annuity.

There are merits to term limits but they also have inherent limitations.

Perhaps it is time to start thinking about retirement age limits instead?