The first votes will be cast tonight in Iowa for who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.
The Presidential nomination process is both long and arduous these days.
For example, John F. Kennedy did not announce he was running for President in 1960 until January 2 of that year. His brother, Bobby, did not announce he was running for President in 1968 until March 16 of that year. He was assassinated three months later on the night he won the California primary.
11 legitimate Republican candidates announced they were running in 2024 as far back as over a year ago.
Only five are left for Iowans to select from.
The others became the victims of poor poll numbers, the inability to raise money and the failure to qualify for the debate stage.
Included in this group are former VP Mike Pence, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Chris Christie, former Governor of New Jersey.
It is crazy to think that all of them were in and OUT of the Presidential race before the Kennedys' even got in.
Times have changed.
The remaining candidates in the race for the first primary race of 2024 are:
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Asa Hutchinson
I have to say that I was surprised that Hutchinson was still in race considering his poll numbers. I was under the impression that he had suspended his campaign several months ago.
The latest Iowa poll by NBC News/Des Moines Register shows Trump with a 30 point lead over Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Trump is up 40 points on Vivek.
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| Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/final-iowa-poll-trump-maintains-dominant-lead-caucuses-rcna132669 |
Let's look at the top four finalists in the GOP race and a few observations I have on each candidate as we head to the first real votes.
Trump
Every poll shows Trump as the frontrunner by a large margin. However, my sense is that he no longer has the passionate support he had in 2016 and 2020.
I have never seen anything in politics that compares to what Trump was able to do in 2016 and 2020 in turning out tens of thousands of people for his rallies.
The fervor behind Trump's support is not what it was but he has benefited considerably by the feeling of many voters that he was treated unfairly with the fake Russian collusion story throughout his term in office, a questionable 2020 election and the indictments that he faces that smell of selective and unequal justice.
I don't think it is a coincidence that Trump's support grew with each indictment.
Trump's biggest problem tonight is that the polls have established high expectations for him. If he does not win by 30 points it is going to feel like a loss.
Many forget that Trump did not win Iowa in 2016. Ted Cruz did.
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| Source: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/iowa |
It is not unusual for the GOP Iowa Caucus winner to not end up being the Republican nominee.
For example, Ronald Reagan did not win Iowa in 1980. George H.W. Bush did not win Iowa in 1988. John McCain did not win Iowa in 2008 and Mitt Romney did not win it in 2012 in addition to Trump falling short in 2016.
It used to be said that Trump's core supporters would crawl over broken glass to cast a vote for him. Will they show up for him with wind chill temperatures approaching -30F over most of the state tomorrow night?
The same can be said for other candidates.
How committed are those caucus voters for their candidates?
Forecasted wind chills temperatures for tonight across Iowa.
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| Source: https://www.weather.gov/dmx/IAgraphics |
Trump's greatest strength right now is that his nomination looks inevitable.
However, if any weakness in Trump's support becomes evident in the early votes it could open the door for another candidate to build momentum.
Momentum is the most important factor in a Presidential primary season.
Trump tapped into it in 2016. Can he prevent anyone else from grabbing it in 2024?
My prediction is that Trump will not be able to get close to the 50% of the vote that the polls are predicting. That seems a tall order considering he only got 24% in 2016.
However, whatever the result, it is worthwhile to keep these votes in context.
If 200,000 votes are cast in Iowa tonight that is about 50,000 less than the votes cast in an average Congressional district race.
The Iowa caucus is more akin to another poll with a large sample size when you really think about it.
DeSantis
I continue to be perplexed as to why DeSantis has not been able to muster more support than he has in this race.
I think it shows just how powerful and effective Trump can be in painting his opponents in a negative light.
In my mind, DeSantis is about as close to a model candidate for the GOP in this race as you can get.
He is just 45 years old but has served three terms in the House of Representatives and won an overwhelming victory to a second term as Florida's Governor.
If elected, DeSantis would be younger than Obama was when he became President. He would also have considerably more governmental experience.
DeSantis graduated from Yale where he was captain of the baseball team with a batting average of .336.
He went on to Harvard Law School where he graduated with honors.
He then went into the Navy where he was a JAG officer and served in Iraq as a legal advisor to a SEAL team.
He is the most consistently conservative candidate left in the race. I have more faith in DeSantis governing conservatively than Trump.
He will also only elicit a fraction of the animus that Trump will from the media and the Democrats. However, make no mistake, any Republican will be made out to be a monster (see Mitt Romney, John McCain and Bob Dole) and DeSantis will be no exception. DeSantis does have an advantage---he is not Trump.
DeSantis also had the unique privilege of playing in the Little League World Series in Williamsport, PA when he was 12 years old. Not many can say that.
Of course, it is well known how well DeSantis navigated the Covid pandemic. It was not easy because he did not follow the lockdown, school closure mantra that most every other governor did. That took courage and confidence to not take the road of least resistance. If he had been wrong his political career would have been over. He was not wrong. He made the right call now that we can look back.
DeSantis has the endorsement of Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and the state's influential Evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats
The DeSantis camp claims that they have 60,000 commitment cards from Iowans for the caucus.
If he could count on all those commitments showing up that is almost 10,000 more votes than Cruz got in 2016 to win.
DeSantis is not likely going to be able to count on all of those voters showing up. However, if he gets 50,000 of that number to show up that would probably put him at 25% of the vote which would greatly exceed expectations. That would be a win for DeSantis tonight and give him momentum going forward.
If he falls short of his poll numbers (18%) above it is going to be hard to come back,
DeSantis remains my preferred candidate in this race.
Haley
On paper, Nikki Haley is a great candidate for the Republicans in 2024.
She is a woman.
She is a first generation American born of immigrant parents who came here from India.
She is the right age---she will be 52 on January 20.
She has been a governor and also was Trump's United Nations representative.
She has the potential to appeal to independents and suburban women which will be important voting blocs if the GOP is to recapture the Presidency.
Haley has come the furthest in the polls over the last several months. She appears to have become the preferred candidate of the establishment Republicans who want to prevent Trump from gaining the nomination. This has meant she has been able to tap into a lot of the big donors in the party.
That big money is a political advantage for Haley but, at the same time, the core voters in the Republican party today have become very distrustful of the establishment. That is a big reason that Trump appeals to so many voters.
Haley will have to walk a fine line to keep her establishment backers happy at the same time trying to gain the trust of those core GOP voters.
My concern is that Haley will be owned by the establishment if she wins. The power of the pursestrings will control over anything the people may want.
For that reason Haley is my least preferred candidate of the four remaining.
I expect Haley will do well in New Hampshire (January 23) in which she has put more focus on than Iowa. She has the endorsement of Governor Sununu and crossover voting in the state means a number of independents and Democrats may turn out and vote for her as well.
Haley could get some real momentum coming out of New Hampshire but it will mean nothing if she cannot win her home state of South Carolina on February 24. A significant loss there could end any hopes she has on Super Tuesday and beyond.
Ramaswamy
No candidate has raised his profile and benefited more from the primary process to this point than Vivek Ramaswamy.
Almost no one had ever heard of the man when he first announced his candidacy for President.
The fact that he has fought his way into the final four candidates and is still standing is a testament to his intelligence and the articulate manner in which he outlines and defends his positions.
There is little question in my mind that he is the most intelligent person in the race.
Vivek has also shown he is not afraid to work for what he wants.
Nobody has worked harder to connect with voters in Iowa.
He has done more events than the other three leading candidates combined.
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| Credit: https://twitter.com/james_jinnette1/status/1744509068570513440 |
At 38 years of age he is likely not ready for prime time in the eyes of most voters but he has given a great audition of the potential he has for the future.
It is tough call for me whether I prefer Trump or Vivek as my second choice right now.
Trump has a proven record of performance. However, he is a lightning rod with a bunch of baggage attached.
Vivek has a ton of potential and it is hard to ignore his intellect. It is also hard to ignore the contrast of a Republican candidate who is less than half the age of Joe Biden and an Indian-American on top of it. That is a powerful combination considering the electorate of today.
For Vivek to remain in the race I would think he needs to beat expectations and get a vote percentage at least in the double digits in Iowa tonight.
The bigger question for Vivek is what is the next step he can take to build experience and stay relevant for the future?
Could he be a VP candidate?
Cabinet post?
Run for Ohio Governor in 2026?
It all begins tonight.
Who knows where it will end in November?
I certainly don't.
I still believe that Joe Biden will not be on the ballot in November as I first predicted a year ago.
What do I know?
What does anyone know right now of what things are going to look like in November?
A lot can happen in 10 months.
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