A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world as we begin 2024.
DeSantis and Ramaswamy Drop Out Of GOP Race
In the wake of the Iowa caucus results both Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have dropped out of the race for the nominee to be the Republican candidate for President in 2024.
This comes after just 110,000 voted were cast in Iowa. That is not even half of what it normally takes to win a U.S. Congressional sear.
Both immediately endorsed Donald Trump.
As I pointed out in my blog post right before the Iowa caucus, it shows just how the nomination process has accelerated over the decades.
In 1968, Bobby Kennedy did not even get into the race for the Democrat nominee until March 16 of that year.
All but two Republicans have dropped out of the race after one state caucus compared to the 14 legitimate candidates that began.
It is logical to ask how can a mere 110,000 votes compared to the more than 74 million votes cast for a Republican candidate in the last election determine who the nominee is?
However, Vivek and DeSantis are not out of the race because of Iowa alone. Trump leads the field by 60 points in the two most recent national polls.
 |
| Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election |
DeSantis was only polling at 7% in New Hampshire in the RealClearPolitics average over the last five polls conducted in that state before he dropped out yesterday.
 |
| Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/new-hampshire |
DeSantis clearly saw no path forward and it was better to get out now and try to salvage his reputation for another day. After all, he is only 45 years old. Vivek is 38. Both have a lot of politics ahead of them.
It also made no sense for either to endorse Haley. You don't advance your political career by betting on the long shot choice this late in the game.
Every Republican candidate is now out except for Trump and Nikki Haley. This is the one-on-match up the anti-Trumpers have been hoping for.
As I wrote before, Haley could not have a better situation to take on Trump in the next two contests. Tomorrow they vote in blue state New Hamspshire that is not known to be a Trump stronghold and Nikki's home state of South Carolina is next later in February..
We will see if Haley can gain any of the momentum coming out of New Hampshire that she desperately needs going to South Carolina.
We will also see if there are enough voters opposed to Trump to deny him the nomination.
The reality is that if she cannot defeat Trump in her home state of South Carolina I think we will see her have to drop out as well and endorse Trump.
A 25+ point loss to Trump in New Hampshire may mean that Haley does not even stay on the ballot for South Carolina. It may be better to drop out than get embarrassed in her home state.
This race looks like it could be over before we even get to Super Tuesday in early March.
Are Borrowings Supposed To Be Your Biggest Revenue Source?
You probably know that the federal government printed a lot of money to meet spending requirements during Covid.
The Federal Reserve printed the money and then lent it to the federal government.
Would it surprise you to know that over the last six months that borrowed money is the biggest revenue source for the federal government?
I knew it was bad I did not know it was quite this bad.
Here is a summary of where the revenues came from in the federal government's fourth quarter (July 1, 2023-September 30, 2023).
This was in a tweet from Stephen Moore citing numbers puts together by @EuroConOfficial.
 |
| Credit: https://twitter.com/StephenMoore/status/1745923645073924326 |
I went to the U.S. Treasury website for the first quarter 2024 numbers (October 1, 2023-December 31, 2023).
Borrowings were down but they are still almost equal to individual income tax collections as a revenue source.
However, for the last six months, borrowings are over $1.3 trillion compared to less than $1.1 trillion in individual income tax collections.
Consider what this means.
To balance the federal budget at current levels of spending would require that individual income taxes be doubled.
When you see how out of control the budget situation is in Washington, D.C. you begin to see why there are many who do not believe that the answer to fixing it is to send anyone there other than an outsider there.
Does the U.S. Stock Market Make Any Sense?
The stock market in the United States has defied gravity and remains close to all-time highs despite higher interest rates and concerns about a softening economy.
 |
| Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/ |
For example, consider the fact that the combined market caps of Apple and Microsoft alone ($5.8 trillion) in the S&P 500 is greater than the entire Japanese NIkkei 225 Index which is the second largest stock market in the world.
Another point of reference is the fact that the price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is now 8 times the value of international stocks generally.
There has never been a time in which the United States market has been more overvalued compared to international stocks.
Long-Term Use of Antidepressants
We hear so much about white privilege and white supremacy that you would wonder how any white person could be depressed.
It would seem to follow that we would see the highest level of depression in those who are bearing the brunt of white privilege.
How then do you explain this chart on the long-term use of antidepressants?
White women age 45 and over account for 58% of all those who have used antidepressants for at least five years.
The chart is a little misleading as it is not adjusted for population.
However, even on a per-capita basis, long-term use of antidepressants is higher with whites (especially white women age 45+) than minorities.
Notice the substantial increase generally in the long-term use of antidepressants beginning in 2010 that is reflected in the chart.
Why?
Demographics of the U.S. Psychology Workforce
Who are the psychologists treating those who are depressed?
The psychologists in the U.S. are overwhelmingly female---69%.
 |
| Source: https://www.apa.org/workforce/data-tools/demographics 2021 Data |
 |
| Source: https://www.apa.org/workforce/data-tools/demographics 2021 Data |
 |
| Source:https://www.apa.org/workforce/data-tools/demographic 2021 Data |
Do you think there might be something to conclude in all of this?
No comments:
Post a Comment