A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.
It Was A Very Good Year
1946 marked the year after the end of World World War II.
It also was the beginning of what became known as the Baby Boom era when births exploded as men returned home from the war and started families.
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| Credit: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/us-births-decreased-in-2023.html#google_vignette |
1946 also ended up being the birth year of three U.S. Presidents.
Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Donald Trump were all born in 1946.
These three were also all born within three months of each other that summer.
Trump in June, Bush in July and Clinton in August.
All of this also led to this interesting factoid involving Presidential history.
Barack Obama was also a Baby Boomer President (1961). Kamala Harris was also born in the last year of the Baby Boomer period in 1964.
Joe Biden was actually born before the Baby Boom period in 1942 and will be 82 years old tomorrow.
Times Are Changing
I remain astounded by the amount of support I am seeing for Donald Trump by 18-29 year old voters in surveys taken after the election.
This age group has traditionally supported Democrats by large margins.
In a recent blog post I cited a YouGov poll that showed that Trump had a net favorability score of +19 ( 57%-38%) with the 18-29 age group.
That was better than any other age group.
A recent CBS poll reinforces that finding by showing that 65% of U.S. adults under age 30 approve of the way Trump is handling the Presidential transition---a +30 net score.
This is even more interesting in that Trump lost the 18-29 age group in 2024 exit polls by 12 points.
Notice the stark difference in how Trump is viewed between young and older adults in the CBS poll.
Only 52% of adults age 65+ approve of Trump's transition plans (a +4 net score) compared to the +30 net score with young voters.
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| Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/796265728/cbsnews-20241124-SUN |
How do you explain this?
One possible explanation is that older voters are forming opinions based on the reporting of legacy news media outlets like the networks, CNN, MSNBC, etc. and younger voters are seeing more balanced opinions on alternative media sites.
It is also interesting that Trump lost the 18-29 age group by 12 points to Kamala Harris but among first-time voters Trump prevailed by 55%-44%.
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| Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0 |
In Texas, Trump had a 56 point advantage with first-time voters in a state that he won by 13 points,.
Times will really change if these young voters who support Trump end up becoming Republican voters in the future.
Home Sales
The median age of all homebuyers has risen to 56!
That means that over half of all homebuyers are Baby Boomers.
The median age for all homebuyers was 31 in 1980---it is 25 years older today.
The median age of first-time buyers is now 38 years old..
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| Credit: https://x.com/Shabanomics/status/1860023882633400702 |
A big reason for the increasing ages of homebuyers is the fact that home prices have risen so dramatically in recent years.
However, the rise in home prices has been much higher with entry-level homes than it has with high-end homes.
In fact, entry-level home prices have risen at a rate that is 63% above the rate for high-end homes.
This has been devastating for younger, first-time buyers.
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| Credit: https://x.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1859946746417168725 |
The observation below on X says where things now stand on home buying.
The ability to buy a house used to be determined by income.
A general rule of thumb was that you could afford to buy a home valued at 2 or 3 times your income.
West Virginia is the only state that seems possible today (2.9 home price to income ratio).
It is 9.1 in Hawaii and 8.4 in California.
It seems to now be determined by wealth.
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| Credit: https://x.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1861212308640301263 |
How Safe Is A Tesla?
Tesla prides itself on having engineered "the safest cars in the world".
This excerpt is from the Tesla Safety Report section of the company's website.
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| Source: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport |
All of the above may be true but a recent report by iSeeCars based on data from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) found that Tesla actually had the highest fatal accident rate of all vehicle brands.
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| Source: https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study#v=2024 |
This comment from the report speaks volumes.
"A vehicle’s size, weight, and height certainly play a part in its ability to protect passengers in a crash,” said Brauer. “But the biggest contributor to occupant safety is avoiding a crash, and the biggest factor in crash avoidance is driver behavior. A focused, alert driver, traveling at a legal or prudent speed, without being under the influence of drugs or alcohol, is the most likely to arrive safely regardless of the vehicle they’re driving.”
In other words, you can have the best engineering vehicle in the world but if you do not have a prudent driver behind the wheel it does not matter.
Over reliance on Tesla's self-driving capabilities may be a factor in all of this.
One Generation Away
Ronald Reagan used to say that freedom was never more than one generation away from extinction.
The same is often said about religion.
If you want to see a real life example that confirms the validity of that statement take a look at this map of Germany.
That yellow line down the middle shows the former boundaries of East and West Germany.
Decades after the country was reunited there is very little religion practiced in East Germany.
Of course, the Communists of East Germany subverted any religion for almost four decades after World War II before the country was reunified in 1990.
The opposite is true in what used to be West Germany.
One generation away.
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