Urbanization of the World

Urbanization is one of biggest trends in the world over the last century.

More and more people live in urban areas in dense population settings.

When the United States was founded, only 5% of the population lived in urban areas.

By the early 1900's, a majority of Americans lived in cities.

83% live in urban areas today.

By 2050 it is projected that almost 90% of the population of the United States will live in cities and urban areas.

The reality of urban living is that you are dependent on someone else for almost everything in your life--food, water, public transit, etc.

There is a theory that those who live in urban areas tend to vote for Democrats in that they feel more vulnerable and less secure due to this dependence. As a result, they are more prone to look to the government to solve any problems they have as they don't feel confident they can do it.

Conversely, those who live in rural areas are more independent, have a stronger belief they can fend for themselves and are more likely to see government as an obstacle in their life than an asset. As a result, they tend to vote Republican

Consider the numbers.

The most urban area in the United States is the District of Columbia---100% urban.

D.C. voted 92%-7% for Kamala Harris.

California is the most urban state. 94% of the state's population lives in urban areas.

California voted 59%-38% for Harris.

On the other hand, in West Virginia only 45% of the population lives in an urban area and in Mississippi it is 46%.

West Virginia voted 70%-28% for Trump and Mississippi supported Trump 62%-37% despite having the largest African-American population of any state (39%). (Note: D.C. is 46%).

These numbers suggest there is something to the theory stated above.

However, that theory blows up a little when you also consider that Vermont is even more rural than West Virginia (35% urban) and it voted left of urban California.  

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/mapping-us-urbanization-by-state/

Vermont was Kamala's best state, going for her by 64%-33%.

At the same time, Florida which is now 92% urban and not far behind California on that score, voted for Trump 56%-43%.

It all goes to show that attempting to understand the behaviors and motivations of American voters is not an easy task.

New York City continues to be the largest metropolitan urban area in the United States.

The most recent population estimates are that 19 million people live in the NYC area.

In 1950, the New York City metro area was the most populous in the world with 12.4 million people.

I recently came across an interesting video graphic on X that shows how the population's of the world's largest cities has changed from 1950 until 2023.

Here is what the list of largest cities looked like in 1950 with New York City on top.

By 1970, New York City had been overtaken by Tokyo with almost 23 million people.

Note that both Tokyo's and Osaka's population had doubled in 20 years.

By 1990, Tokyo had twice the population that New York City had and Mexico City was also on the verge of overtaking New York City.

New York City had fallen to 7th on the list of largest cities by 2010.

Delhi, which was not even large enough to make the list in 1970, was the world's second largest city in 2010 with almost 22 million inhabitants.

New York City is now close to falling completely off the list of the world's largest 15 cities. It looks inevitable by 2030.

Delhi will probably be the world's largest city by that that time.

Due to Japan's aging population and very low birth rate, it would not be surprising to see Tokyo's population actually decline by 2023 compared to 2023.

Note that Tokyo's population only grew by 1% between 2010 and 2023.

What does it all mean?

The world has become increasingly urbanized.

However, I doubt most Americans really know how large the population changes and shifts have been in other parts of the world during their lifetimes.

Urbanization provides the opportunity for more efficient living based on the economies of scale and the division of labor.  However, it also makes populations more dependent on our fellow man and the technologies that increasingly control our lives. It also makes populations much more vulnerable to wars, famines and pandemics.

All of this shows how interconnected and interdependent the world has become and how it is more important than ever for us all get along and focus on what unites us rather than what divides us.

Like it or not, we are all in it together.