BeeLine: Ukraine War + 3

We have passed the three year mark for the Russia-Ukraine war.

In my view it is a war that should have never occurred.

There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin is a very bad person.

However, at the same time, it was foolhardy for the Biden administration and the Europeans to provoke Putin to invade Ukraine by the noise that was being made about Ukraine joining NATO in the lead up to the conflict.

This was clearly a red line that Putin could not allow the West to cross over.

Ukraine borders Russia and the Ukrainians cozied up to the West in recent years that included possible NATO membership. The Biden administration was not doing anything to suggest that Ukraine would not be welcome to join NATO. Putin viewed this as a threat to his security as much as the United States would if Canada or Mexico were talking with China about a mutual defense package.

For those unfamiliar with the geography, here is a map that puts that part of the world into better perspective.

Source: https://www.tripsavvy.com/maps-of-eastern-europe-4123431

Estonia and Latvia, which border Russia, are already NATO members.

However, Ukraine would be of the most strategic value to Russia as it is their gateway to the Black Sea (they had already annexed Crimea during the Obama administration which did nothing to stop the Russians) and it also shares the largest border with Russia in Eastern Europe.

Here is a full list of all the former Eastern European bloc countries that used to be in the Soviet realm that are now in NATO.

Source: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1894451198968685006

For context, it should be remembered that when the Soviet Union collapsed and discussions were underway about the reunification of Germany, there were suggestions made to the Russians by U.S. Secretary of State Baker and German's Foreign Minister that NATO would not expand eastward by one inch.

No treaty was signed to that effect but the Russians look at it as a breach of a gentlemen's agreement when NATO expanded so greatly in later years.

If you were Putin would you not feel at least somewhat threatened by all of this?

Jeffrey Sachs, is a noted liberal global economist who worked extensively in Russia on their post-communist transition.

Sachs recently made this statement before the EU Parliament that clearly points to the NATO issue as the cause of the Russian invasion.

He points the finger clearly at Jake Sullivan, Biden's National Security Advisor for bad judgment all the way around on the Ukraine situation.

Link: https://x.com/thinking_panda/status/1893608891872874796

It should also not be forgotten that Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 34 years ago. Ukraine was also part of the Russian Empire beginning in the late 18th century under czarist rule until the Bolshevik revolution occurred and that empire collapsed in 1917.

Ukraine attempted to assert its independence in the succeeding years but was ultimately partitioned in the 1930's between the Soviet Union and Poland. When you add it all together Ukraine has actually been aligned with Russia for about 200 of the last 240 years.

The war has continued for three years almost solely because the United States wanted it to continue and was willing to pay for it.

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been sent to Ukraine to fund the war effort and to also prop up the government bureaucracy. The United States has even paid for the pensions of Ukraine government employees.

Yes, the United States wanted to assist Ukraine in defending itself. However, the United States was most interested in using this war to weaken Russia militarily and financially in a proxy war.

The human cost has been enormous for both countries.

Precise casualty numbers are difficult to come by because both countries do not want the actual numbers to be revealed for the effects it would have on the morale of the citizens of both countries.

However, a conservative estimate puts total casualties at over one million with a least one-third of that total being deaths.

These are huge numbers when you consider that the combined populations of Russia (144 million) and Ukraine (44 million) are about half of the United States.

By comparison, the United States lost 58,000 (44,000 killed in action) in the Vietnam War.

By any realistic measure, this was not a war that Ukraine could win.

It lacks the manpower, war material and money to defeat Russia.

Three years of war has proven that.

Ukraine will only be able to prolong the effort if the United States and Europe agree to keep providing war material and money to Ukraine. It will only be able to win if the U.S. and/or Europe also start providing troops as well.

However, how many citizens in the United States and Europe are willing to send their sons and daughters to Ukraine to participate in the beginning of World War III?

There will almost certainly be none among the liberal elites who so vociferously supported the Ukraine war from the beginning.

All of this is why Donald Trump is working hard to end the killing and the conflict and broker a peace agreement.

It looked like Trump was making progress until Ukraine President Zelensky showed up at the White House on Friday and seemed to make it clear he was not interested in a peace deal at all.

I have a lot of respect for the courage Zelensky showed in standing up to Putin and the job he did in rallying his country and the free world to the Ukrainian cause.

However, we are three years into this war and it is evident that Urkaine (even with an enormous amount of support by the U.S. and Europe) is not going to expel Russia from eastern Ukraine and re-take Crimea.

Ukraine had previously agreed to a deal to give the United States an interest in mineral rights in Ukraine, in return for past and continued military and financial support while a peace deal was negotiated.

Zelensky was invited to the White House to sign that deal. However, at the White House Zelenskyy backtracked Zelensky and insisted to Trump and Vance that Ukraine needed security guarantees from the U.S. as well.

Trump has been clear from the start that he would not commit U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine which is what Zelensky was asking for.

Scott Jennings of CNN summed it up well.

Link: https://x.com/stillgray/status/1895711060935721023

There is no bigger friend of Zelensky and Ukraine in the U.S. Senate than Lindsey Graham.

Graham is no longer supporting Zelensky and believes he should resign after the way he behaved in the Oval Office.

When you have lost Lindsey Graham on Ukraine you know you are playing a losing hand.

Link: https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/1895571311923204115

What really does not make any sense at all is that by agreeing to the mineral deal with Trump, Zelensky would have effectively gotten a security agreement. This would give the United States an economic interest in Ukraine to defend.

It would act as a natural deterrent to Putin and Russia. It would also have provided the United States with a stronger rationale to intercede in Ukraine in the future if Russia violated any peace agreement.

It was a master stroke of negotiation and strategic thinking by Trump that seems lost on Zelensky, the Europeans and most everyone else.

How will it all end?

Zelensky has no other option than to make peace with Trump and also agree to pursue peace with Putin.

The Europeans have neither the money, the war material or the stomach to take on Putin and continue the war without the United States.

This is evident in polling on the issue that shows a steady decline in support for the war and an increase in those who want a negotiated peace that includes Russia ending up with control of some parts of Ukraine.

Source: https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1895772278815637538

I made the following prediction two years ago in a blog post "Losing Even If They Win" when the war had only been going on for only a year.

The tragedy in all of this is that when all is said and done in this war it is hard to believe that Russia will not end up retaining Crimea and be in control of some of the Donbas region of Ukraine that borders Russia. This region was generally controlled by Russian separatists groups even before the Russian invasion. The people in this region also principally speak Russian.

Unfortunately, my observation two years ago looks like it will be close to any final resolution. In fact, the final lines drawn will likely favor Russia more than it would have two years ago or, sadly, if the negotiated peace deal that Turkey was helping to negotiate in the Spring of 2022 had been implemented early in the conflict.

Far worse is the question of what Ukraine will look like as a country in the future with so much blood and treasure spilled as a result of poor judgments and decisions by Joe Biden, Jake Sullivan and their European counterparts.

When we see the final resolution will we see that anything has been truly achieved?