The Fog of the Covid War

BeeLine is driven by data.

The information I share, the judgments I make and the opinions I have are formed by data.

I also take into account that while data is objective, all data can be manipulated.

That is why I typically go to additional lengths to take a step back and attempt to discern if the data passes the smell test. Does it conform with common sense? Is it consistent with data from other sources? Does the person who compiled the data have an agenda?

The biggest reason I became interested in writing about Covid was that it was a data-rich subject.

As you recall, early in the pandemic all of the decisions being made were based on models of what experts told us what was going to occur.

We had to lockdown because hospitals were going to be overwhelmed.

If we did not do so a couple million people would die in the United States in a matter of months.

In the first couple of weeks I took these claims seriously. After all, we were dealing with the unknown. The "experts" should know, shouldn't they? They should have the best data.

Two weeks into the lockdown I started to see that what we were being told did not match the reality of the data that was coming in.

What drove me over the edge were projections that Ohio's Governor and Public Health Director were using to justify the extension of the severe lockdown and school closures at that time. Mind you, at that time they weren't even telling people to wear face masks. They were telling people to not wear masks. A mask mandate would not be imposed in Ohio until mid-July.

Here is a graph of one of the models that these officials were relying on at that time. I published this originally in my blog post "Models and Reality" on March 29, 2020.

It was projecting that 100,000 Ohioans would be in the hospital by the middle of May if we used a shelter in place policy for the next 3 months.

The state's public health director, Dr. Amy Acton, stated that she was expecting 10,000 new cases each day at the peak in May and this was with the current Covid policies in place until then.

The same model that projected 100,000 hospitalizations by mid-May forecast 174,000 deaths from the Covid pandemic of Ohio's nearly 12 million people.

I wrote at that time that none of this passed the smell test for me. The data I was seeing thus far simply did not fit the narrative.

The data later proved my instincts were correct.

What were the number of confirmed cases cases in Ohio by mid-May? 600 per day.

What were the number of hospitalizations at that time? Less than 80 per day.

It is true that confirmed cases in Ohio did eventually reach over 10,000 cases per day in November. However, that was six months after a mandatory mask mandate had been in effect in the state. How effective was it?

Total Covid hospitalizations for the last 16+ months are just over 60,000 in Ohio.

The modelers are still at it.

Here is a model that the University of Texas recently published projecting hospitalizations in Texas from Covid over the next month. It projects over 15,000 will be in the hospital in that state by the middle of August.  Currently there are 3,000.

Source: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/dashboards/texas/

We will see where the real data takes us.

However, if this turns out to be true it tells me that the vaccines are a total failure. I don't believe that right now looking at the data. I think the vaccines have had a very positive impact, particularly with those who are older. That seems apparent when looking at the data.

For example, this heat map shows deaths by age in the UK since the beginning of the pandemic. There was a significant decrease in deaths in older ages in the UK in the last few months despite the rise in cases due to the Delta variant. That is very good news that the vaccines are working for those who need the most protection.

Source: https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1417592231561768962/photo/1

At the same time, I think the vaccines have been oversold and I think there are substantial questions of whether the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks for large portions of the population. This is particularly true to anyone under the age of 50. That opinion is based on DATA.

Look at the heat map again. There has been little mortality in anyone under age 50 throughout the pandemic.

It has been said that the Covid vaccines do not necessarily prevent someone from getting the infection but they are supposed to be highly protective to prevent severe illness, hospitalization and death.

60% of the age 12+ population in Texas has received at least one dose of the vaccines.

52% of the age 12+ population has been fully vaccinated in Texas.

83% of the 65+ age population has received at least one dose in Texas. 75% both doses.

Considering these facts, how is it possible to project that Texas could have more hospitalizations over the next month than it has had since the beginning of the pandemic? The only conclusion would be that the vaccines are not working.

You may have also heard recently the "data" that 99% of all deaths from Covid currently are among those who unvaccinated.

A number like that perks up my antenna.

If that is true, why are other countries with high vaccination rates showing much higher levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths among those vaccinated than unvaccinated?

Something about the U.S. data does not add up when viewed against the data in other highly vaccinated countries that are seeing spikes in cases.

We then have Joe Biden saying this last night at a town hall meeting on CNN.

You can view the video clip here.

If you want to view another Biden cringeworthy response from last night watch this clip.

This is the leader of the free world and is totally in control of what is going on?

He clearly seem to be unaware of the six Texas legislators, Nancy Pelosi's press aide and White House staffers who were fully vaccinated but recently were reported to have Covid.

At the White House briefing on Tuesday, Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed to reporters that a White House staffer has tested positive for Covid-19 after meeting with the Democrats who fled Texas to prevent a quorum on voting legislation. She also revealed that other staffers have tested positive, something that had previously not been shared with the press.

Biden also must not be aware of what is going on in the rest of the world.

These countries all have vaccinated a significantly higher number of their population compared to the rest of the world.

This is a graph of confirmed cases in these same countries (except Gibraltar for which Our World in Data does not have a data set).

However, this is the data on cases for Gibraltar for the period July1-17.

Source: https://twitter.com/TedPetrou/status/1416526132522930179

That equals about 332 cases/day per million. That would be about 100,000 cases per day in the United States. That is about 3 times what the U.S. is experiencing right now. Gibraltar has essentially vaccinated every person in the country age 12+.

Note that cases have exploded in these countries compared to the World numbers. They have also all gone up together whereas previously each had individual curves that were not related.

Why? What is the data telling us? It is certainly not telling us that if people have the vaccinations they are not going to get Covid as Biden alleged last night.

Where is the support coming for the "99% of deaths from Covid now are among those who are unvaccinated"?

It seems to come from an Associated Press analysis of data from May which concluded that only .8% of deaths from Covid in that month involved fully vaccinated people.

That report also quoted Andy Slavitt, a former Biden advisor on Covid, suggesting that 98%-99% of deaths from Covid were among the unvaccinated.

Interestingly, in doing my research I found that the CDC has not published any numbers breaking Covid deaths down between vaccinated and unvaccinated.

The AP report cited this as the reason.

The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitalizations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitations in the data.

The key limitation appears to be that not all states and counties are breaking down this information and reporting it.

I have found that it is also difficult to research the background data at the state and local level as few are publicly reporting the breakdown of cases, hospitalizations and deaths split between vaccinated and unvaccinated. 

I did find data from San Diego County, California which I think is illustrative of how the data is being used to provide an inaccurate view of what is really going on.

San Diego reports that just .3% of the deaths from Covid in the county since January 1, 2021 have been in those fully vaccinated. This would be consistent with the narrative we are hearing.

Source: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Case%20Summary%20by%20Vaccination%20Status.pdf

However, consider when most of the deaths occurred this year. They were almost all in January and February before ANYONE was fully vaccinated!

Source: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Deaths%20by%20Date%20of%20Death.pdf

What is happening in San Diego County more recently? 

64% of all residents age 12+ are fully vaccinated. The number is 86% for age 65+.

What are the numbers for Covid deaths broken down between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the last 30 days?

There were only 3 total deaths in the last 30 days in all of San Diego County which has a population of 3.5 million people. 2 vaccinated and 1 unvaccinated.

3 deaths in 3.5 million people in 30 days in one of the most populous counties in the United States!

That alone puts some of this in better perspective.

Source: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Case%20Summary%20by%20Vaccination%20Status.pdf

Admittedly, that is a small sample size of deaths but it is illustrative of how the data can be used to mislead.

It is true that there were a lot more cases in those who were not fully vaccinated and there was a greater chance for hospitalizations. However, it is not true that almost all recent deaths are among the unvaccinated.

I don't know what the real truth is on the percentage of Covid deaths today that are related to those who are vaccinated.

However, I am certain it is not 1%. My suspicion is that this is a manipulated number based on data from early in the year. It does not represent current conditions as it is being portrayed to the public.

What is the real number?

I don't know.

It is most common to find generalized statements that "almost all deaths (or cases or hospitalizations) are among the unvaccinated "but there is no data backing it up to see it for yourself.

For example, here is a headline from Forbes along those lines.

From the Forbes article.

Michael Ricci, communications director for Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), wrote in a tweet that 100% of the state’s coronavirus fatalities in June were among the unvaccinated. 

Though Ricci did not specify Maryland’s death toll, data compiled by the New York Times shows 127 of the state’s residents died from Covid-19 in June, a decrease of over 70% from the 458 killed the month prior. 

Ricci also said that data shows 95% of new Covid-19 cases and 93% of hospitalizations were from unvaccinated people.

I could not not find data anywhere on Maryland's Covid site to confirm those numbers or to put them in context. Maryland is not breaking the numbers out. Is there a reason?

It appears that Forbes could not find it either.

Hogan’s office did not immediately respond to a request for more information about the data from Forbes.

One of the problems in getting good information is the CDC stopped counting breakthrough Covid cases among vaccinated people beginning May 1. Thus, Covid cases among the unvaccinated are all counted. Covid cases among the vaccinated are only counted if the case results in a hospitalization or death.

From the CDC website:

Source: CDC

How can the CDC really understand the full impact of how effective the vaccines are if they are not even collecting case data on the breakthrough infections of those vaccinated?

Logic says that cases should come down if the vaccine is doing what we are told it can do. Every additional vaccination should have a positive effect on the numbers.

Hospitalizations should come down.

Deaths should also decline.

This appeared to be the case for the last several months.

However, all of these measures are now advancing upwards.

Why?

Are the vaccines not as effective against current variants?

Are the vaccines losing their effectiveness over time?

Were we tricked into believing that the vaccines were more effective than they really are?

After all, remember that the majority of the clinical trials in the United States were conducted in the Spring and Summer last year when seasonality factors were not present in most of the world.

How will the vaccines perform in the Fall season when viruses spread much more easily in the populous northern states?

I am going to be looking closely at the data over the next six weeks. 

How will the Sunbelt perform which is at particular risk right now based on seasonality factors?

Will we see anything close to the projections in the model for Texas? If we do, I predict big problems ahead because it will signal a major failure in the vaccines.

What will we see when school's open?

As I have written previously, I am more concerned with the spread of other viruses in the school setting this Fall since so many children have not had the opportunity to allow their natural immune systems to be primed to combat a range of pathogens.

If you doubt this, take a look at what is going on in New Zealand (Winter season) right now and the epidemic curve for RSV in that country compared to past years.  

Source: https://twitter.com/ID_ethics/status/1417354659568578561/photo/1

 

I will go where the data takes me.

I will not blindly follow "the narrative".

The most troubling aspect of everything we have seen the last 18 months is the unwillingness of our political and public health establishment to do the same.

Why are they afraid of being transparent with the data?

Why do they feel compelled to silence any contrary views?

Why aren't they humble enough to simply admit there are many things they don't know about the virus, its origins and the vaccines?

I don't know the answers to the questions I have posed. There are too many moving parts. We are in the midst of the fog of war when battling this pandemic.

The fog will lift at some point. The data will reveal the truth.

Let us pray that those who are pushing the narrative are on the right side of that truth.

Zero Covid, Zero Chance

The reality seems to be sinking in that a ZERO COVID world is not going to occur even as vaccination rates increase.

The CDC and others claim that the recent increase in cases is almost totally due to those who are unvaccinated.

However, that is not supported by the data or logic.

You simply could not have the rise in cases we have seen in a number of countries around the world due simply to those who are not unvaccinated.

The data suggests that the vaccines are not as effective at preventing infections as the public health authorities would like you to believe.

Let's look first at some foreign countries that all have higher vaccination rates than the United States.

Israel has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. Over 60% of the total population is fully vaccinated. 

However, the vaccination rates are 90%+ for those over age 60 and 80%+ for those over age 25.

Israel has recommended against vaccinating anyone under age 12 which keeps the overall vaccination rate lower than you would expect.

Cases have been rising in Israel recently.

Most of the new cases are in those that have been vaccinated. The cases have generally tracked the same percentage of the population that has been vaccinated. This does not suggest that the vaccines are a failure. However, it does indicate that the vaccines (Pfizer in Israel) are not providing much additional protection right now to new variants compared to those who have not been vaccinated.

This is evident in looking at the data.

In light of what Israel is seeing it just announced that it is not going to allow VACCINATED visitors into the country as of August 1 as originally planned.

What does this say about their confidence in the vaccines based on the data they are seeing?

Cases have exploded upwards in the UK which has vaccinated a similar percentage of its population as Israel.

Most vaccine doses in the UK have been from Astra Zeneca (not authorized in USA) or Pfizer. Moderna and J&J are not readily available there.

The UK is currently seeing as many new cases each day as they did in January.

This case growth would simply not be possible unless substantial numbers of vaccinated people were not becoming infected and/or spreading the virus.

The good news in the UK is that hospitalizations thus far have not followed cases up to the same degree as they did last winter. 

This may be due to the vaccines. Let's hope it is. However, it is also possible that it may be due to the fact that the Delta variant is simply less severe than what circulated last winter.

In any event, the UK's Chief Science Advisor stated on Monday that unvaccinated and one-dose patients made up 60% of current hospitalizations. That means 40% of those in the hospital with Covid are fully vaccinated. 

This would support the fact that the vaccines are beneficial in preventing severe disease. However, that is still an astonishingly high percentage for vaccines that have been promoted as conferring substantial protection for severe illness from Covid.

It is also interesting to look at Gibraltar. I wrote about Gibraltar last January right after it started a vaccination program and saw an enormous spike in cases after having almost no cases to that point.

That spike lasted for about 6 weeks until cases subsided to almost nothing over the last few months.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/

By mid-March Gibraltar became the first country or territory in the world to vaccinate its entire adult population against Covid.

Source: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14386115/gibraltar-first-nation-vaccinate-entire-adult-population-covid-jab/

These are the new confirmed cases in Gibraltar on July 16 as reported by the government.

32 new cases. 29 were people who had been vaccinated. 3 were unvaccinated.

Note also that there were no cases for anyone less than 10 years old even though this group has not been vaccinated in Gibraltar.

The vast majority of those who were vaccinated in Gibraltar received the Pfizer vaccine.

Source: https://twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1416011722314420225

To put that number of cases in context, that would be equal to the United States having over 300,000 cases per day if the Gibraltar experience occurred in the United States.

What is happening in the United States right now?

Cases have started to increase. The most recent 7-day rolling average is 32,000 cases per day. A month ago we were at 12,000/day.

In January we were at over 250,000/day.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This is despite the fact that over 56% of the U.S. population and almost 70% of the adult population has received at least one dose.

The number of those vaccinated has also continued to increase every day although far less steeply than it did earlier in the year.

Therefore, it defies logic to think that the current increase in cases is driven primarily by unvaccinated people as suggested by CDC Director on Friday since the number of unvaccinated falls each day.

"This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated," US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during Friday's White House Covid-19 briefing.

What we are seeing in other countries also suggests that there is something else that may be going on here.

For example, consider just a few stories that have come out over the last few days concerning high profile names who were vaccinated but have tested positive for Covid.

Five Democrat Texas state legislators who fled the state to protest a voting integrity bill in the state have all tested positive since arriving in Washington, D.C. All had been fully vaccinated.

A number of MLB players on the Yankees, Mariners and Rockies who had been vaccinated recently tested positive as has U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-16th District).

Several Olympic athletes who were vaccinated have recently been reported to be Covid positive including U.S. gymnastics teams alternate Kara Eaker.

Three weeks ago I predicted that we would be seeing a rise in cases in the Sunbelt states due to seasonality factors in those states with more people staying indoors to take refuge from the summer heat.

Where are cases the highest right now? They are all states that generally have high heat indexes in the summer.

Source: New York Times

Some argue that the high case numbers are driven by low vaccination rates pointing to Arkansas, Louisiana and Alabama.

Florida is also a frequent target because some many on the Left do not like Governor Ron DeSantis and his Covid policies.

However, Florida's vaccination rate is almost right at the national average. Are the rise in cases due to the unvaccinated or due to seasonality?

Here are the states at the bottom insofar as new Covid cases.

Note that every one of them is in the north in temperate climates right now.

Source; New York Times

Many have high vaccination rates but what about North Dakota and South Dakota? Michigan's vaccination rate is also about the same as Florida.

Anyone who suggests that seasonality is not a factor in all of this is just ignoring the data.

As I have written many times in these pages, I fervently hope that the vaccines work.

It is the best path forward to normalcy if they are as good as advertised.

However, I cannot help but believe that the vaccines have been overhyped and oversold.

It is becoming increasingly clear in looking at the data that there is zero chance that we are going to get to ZERO Covid anytime soon.

I am particularly interested in what the Covid experience will be at the Olympic Games in Tokyo that begins later this week.

Japan has taken extraordinary measures to insure that Covid does not disrupt the Olympics or their nation. There will be no spectators at the Games. Athletes are tested before leaving their home country and tested again when arriving in Japan. They will undoubtedly each be tested repeatedly during their time in Japan. Many will have been vaccinated. The IOC estimates that 80%+ of the athletes and media members covering the Games will be vaccinated.

How much difference will it make? We will see. However, I think there is zero chance we will not hear  of Covid positives among the athletes. 

One interesting footnote is that Japan is currently having more cases of Covid this year than it did last year when the Games were cancelled.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

Cases in the rest of the world are also higher today than they were a year ago so that also suggests that Japan might have been better off in not delaying the Games.

The higher cases are also despite the fact that vaccines are available in 2021 and no vaccines were available in 2020.

Does that not run counter to the narrative? Does that not suggest that the vaccines are not nearly as effective as we have been told? Why are cases rising as vaccinations around the world are also rising? 

3.65 billion doses of Covid vaccine administered around the world and Covid cases globally are higher today than they were at this time last year?

Source: New York Times

Zero Covid?

Zero Chance anytime soon.

Divided On Almost Everything

A big problem in the United States today is that we have reached a point that there are large divisions on what people believe about the most fundamental issues.That also extends to the trust they have in the important institutions in America

A few decades ago that was not the case.

There were shared beliefs that were held by most Americans irrespective of political beliefs or identification.

People believed in the fundamental idea of the goodness of America.

They believed that the Founders set forth a nation that was unique in its commitment to individual freedoms and rights and its exceptionalism.

They respected police and their role in maintaining safety and order in society.

They respected religion and the truths and values that flowed from it. 

They believed in the U.S. military to protect us against foreign enemies.

They believed in the justice system to provide equal justice under the law.

They believed that the public schools would teach students without a political agenda.

They believed that the news media would provide fair reporting and be a watchdog to hold people in power to account no matter what the political party or station in life.

It is difficult to find unity on almost any belief today. 

That is particularly true when you look at the deep divisions in the confidence that Americans have in their institutions.

Gallup recently did a poll asking Americans what their degree of confidence was in various American institutions.

To say that there is massive trust gap is an understatement.

This chart compares the % difference in Republicans and Democrats when asked whether they had a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in various institutions.

76% of Republicans have a lot of confidence in the police. Only 31% of Democrats do.

62% of Democrats have confidence in the Presidency. Only 13% of Republicans do. However, in 2020 it was exactly the opposite. How did that happen?

51% of Republicans express confidence in organized religion. Only 26% of Democrats do.

43% of Democrats say they are confident in public schools. Only 20% of Republicans feel the same.

The entire survey list shows that almost all institutions have lost the confidence of the American people over the last year.

The biggest losers---Public Schools down 9 points. The Medical System down 7 points. Any ideas as to what caused this?

The only winner---Police up 3 points. I guess the defund the police narrative is running into reality.

Here is the complete list looking back to 2019.

Here is the complete list by party identification for 2021.

There is a lot of emphasis placed on diversity these days.

We hear all the time that diversity is a strength.

That is true if there are common values, beliefs, goals and objectives that are shared in a nation, organization or group.

If these foundational principles are not shared uniformly, diversity is a weakness, not a strength. In point of fact, diversity is a fatal weakness if the foundational principles are not aligned.

Consider marriage. Men and women separately have unique talents, perspectives and cognitive approaches. When combined, these add tremendous value to a union of two people. However, if the man and woman do not share the same core values, beliefs and goals the other elements of diversity will wreak havoc to that union.

If we cannot agree on the BIG issues what hope is there to be united on anything else?

That is a question worth asking.

What foundational values, beliefs and principles can we build on?

When we have reached the point where the flag is viewed as a political, rather than a patriotic symbol, there doesn't appear to be much left to rally around.

Source: https://nypost.com/2021/06/08/nyt-msnbcs-mara-gay-disturbing-to-see-dozens-of-american-flags-on-trucks-in-long-island/

It has been said that America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we lose our freedoms it will be because we have destroyed ourselves from within.

Some attribute this statement to Abraham Lincoln but there is no proof he ever spoke or wrote these words.

He did say the following which captures the sentiment. The last paragraph seems to have been the inspiration for others to paraphrase Lincoln's thoughts in the way that it has been.

This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform.

How then shall we perform it? — At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? — Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! — All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.

That is an excerpt from Lincoln's "Lyceum Address" which was delivered in January, 1838. At that time Lincoln was 28 years old and was a member of the Illinois House of Representatives. He had not even met his future wife, Mary Todd, at that time. He had been practicing law for only two years.

How right Lincoln was even though he did not know that a Civil War loomed two decades in the future. 

Those words foretold why Lincoln was so committed to not letting the union be ripped apart.

How right he still is today.

Do we have those in our midst who will not let the United States of America die by suicide?

Libertad!

 Libertad! Freedom!

Word came out over the weekend that crowds of Cubans had taken to the streets in a number of cities across the country protesting against the government.

Why are protests rare in Cuba?

It is fairly simple. In a totalitarian state you literally risk your life when you express your dissatisfaction with the government. There is a reason protests are RARE.

Many thought that the freedom movement that swept through Poland, Germany, Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in the late 1980's and early 1990's would end up extending to Cuba.

It never happened.

Will there be enough momentum now for the people of Cuba to get the freedom they deserve?

I know of no country in the world that has more potential to flourish and prosper if they can escape the chains of communism.

Cuba is blessed with beautiful weather. It is close to the United States and there are scores of prosperous Cuban Americans who are eager to see freedom restored to Cuba and to revive the economy that has been devastated by over 60 years of Communist rule.

A few people over the weekend pointed out to me that most of the major media outlets were not giving much attention to the Cuba story.

Why was that?

My sense is that many in mainstream media are reluctant to give air time to stories that show that people in socialist and communist regimes are unhappy.

They must believe that it hurts the narrative that socialism is superior to freedom and capitalism.

Bernie Sanders has praised Cuba's healthcare and education system over the years arguing that Fidel Castro transformed Cuba the society in the process.

Sanders was right about one thing. Communism did transform Cuban society.

It transformed it such that a large percentage of Cubans did not want to stay in their homeland.

A large number have ended up in the United States. Others fled to Spain and other countries.

This shows the trends in Cuban admissions to the United States from 1870-2015.

Is it merely a coincidence that Cubans decided they wanted to leave their homeland in 1959, the year that Fidel Castro and the Communists took over?

The Census Bureau official number is that over 1.3 million people born in Cuba now reside in the United States. There are over 1 million additional children in these households that were born in the United States. That is over 2.3 million with recent direct ties to Cuba.

For context, Cuba only has a population of around 11 million. 

There are actually more Cuban Americans (2.3 million) in the United States than the population of Havana.

Most of those Cubans live in South Florida.

Source: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/cuban-immigrants-united-states-2018

As this article from last year in The Miami Herald points out, there are many Cubans who still risk the perilous journey to escape Cuba for the United States.

Paco sold everything he owned at home in the coastal town of Bahia Honda, west of Havana, to get out of Cuba. He also asked for help from relatives in South Florida. In an island where the minimum salary is $10 per month, it’s tough to pull together the $12,000 that people smugglers in Miami charge for the clandestine trip.

“In this town, everyone wants to leave” for the United States, he said. “Everyone wants to go.”

An interesting fact about Cuba is that over half of the population are direct descendant of slaves by some estimates.

Cuba had at least 800,000 slaves brought in during the slave trade.

The comparable number for the United States---400,000. 

Most people hear so much about the slave trade history in the United States that they know nothing of the horrors of the numbers of slaves that were shipped to other countries.

About 400,000 slaves were originally brought to the United States out of a total of 12.5 million who were caught up in the Atlantic slave trade from Africa. 10.7 million arrived in the Western Hemisphere. That means that less than 4% of all slaves came to the United States.

This is the picture of an exhibit I took at the Natchez, MS visitor's center a few years ago that shows the workings of the slave trade. I have referenced these numbers previously in these pages.

Less than 4% of the Atlantic Slave Trade went to North America.

Over 10 times (42%) that number went to the West Indies (Cuba included in that number).

38% went to Brazil. 6% to Guyana and 8% to the rest of Central and South America.

2% ended up in Europe which you almost never hear anything about.

We hear continually these days that the United States is a racist country and there is no way for minorities to overcome the white supremacy and systemic racism that permeates the country.

Someone forgot to mention this to the Cubans who came to America and have succeeded nor to the remaining Cubans who desperately want to leave the land of their birth.

There are calls for reparations for the descendants of slaves in the United States. 

Are there any calls for reparations in Cuba, Brazil or any other countries? It would seem the amount of reparations should be much larger in those countries since the number of slaves imported were so much higher and there are many more descendants.

Cubans are interested in something more basic---Libertad!

It is something they don't have right now.

It is something they should have.

Let's hope that the match has been lit so that the bright light of freedom will burn bright for the Cuban people very soon.

Credit: https://torange.biz/table-flag-american-candle-52532

Godspeed to the Cuban people.

Which Side Are They On?

Which side are they on?

That has become a big question as I look at what Joe Biden and the Democrats are doing.

Democrats spent four years trying to argue that Donald Trump was a Russian agent.

It was a ridiculous claim but they persisted in repeating it for the entirety of Trump's Presidency.

Consider that oil and gas revenues are absolutely critical for Russia's economy.

I wrote about this in 2017 when the Democrats were making the Russian collusion claims about Trump early in his term. I pointed out a few key facts that did not support the narrative at that time.

50% of Russia's federal budget comes from oil and tax revenues.

68% of Russia's exports are from oil and gas.

Russia's GDP is 7% of the GDP of the United States.

To put that in context, the United States has more student debt ($1.7 trillion) than the entire GDP of Russia ($1.6 trillion).

Do you think that the price of oil and gas is important to Russia and the political fortunes of Vladimir Putin?

I then posed some questions that led to the obvious answer that Donald Trump was Russia's worst nightmare if you looked at the facts. There was no way that Putin would have preferred Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Considering everything above, what is the most important factor for Russia's long-term economic well-being?

Higher oil and gas prices.

Of the two candidates running for President, which of the two candidates was more likely to initiate policies that would lead to increased oil and gas prices?

Was it the candidate who wanted to build the Keystone pipeline, lift the Obama moratoriums on drilling on federal lands, lift the restrictions on new drilling technologies, rescind Obama-era EPA rules on drilling and coal and end the excessive regulations of fossil fuels?

All of these positions of Donald Trump would serve to lower oil and gas prices by increasing U.S. and global supply.

Hillary Clinton's policies would have done the exact opposite. In fact, she was on record during the 2016 campaign as saying that "we need to move away from coal and all the other fossil fuels as energy sources".  That was about the same time she was saying she would put all of the coal workers in the United States out of work. She might have thought those statements were in her own self-interest in order to play to her liberal left base of voters. However, it could not have been further from our nation's economic self-interest.

At the same time, if you were sitting in Vladimir Putin's chair, wouldn't those positions be music to your ears? What could be better for Putin than a U.S President who wanted to exorbitantly raise the prices of fossil fuels in order to make green energy projects more viable?

If you reviewed the entire Russian influence story based on simple logic, economic facts and self-interest, why would Vladimir Putin and Russia have any reason to prefer Trump over Clinton?

It just didn't add up in any shape or form when you looked at it from that perspective.

Of course, we now know that the Trump Russian collusion story was a complete fabrication that had its origins with a dossier that was manufactured and paid for by the DNC and the Clinton campaign.

I called the attempts to smear Trump with the Russia collusion story the real Russian scandal in April, 2017 by just looking at facts, data and using some common sense. 

We are now seeing the effects of the policies that Clinton and the Democrats wanted in 2016 before Trump got in the way.

Who is benefiting more from all the restrictions on fossil fuels in the United States right now?

The American people or Russia?

This graphic shows what has happened to gas prices at the pump since the 2020 election.

There is no doubt that some of the oil price increases have been due to increased demand from economic activity picking up as we have come out of the pandemic.

However, the market has unmistakably reacted to the new policies that inhibit the exploration, drilling and transportation of oil and gas.

When Trump left office the United States was actually exporting more oil and gas than it was importing.

A decade ago experts said that this was impossible. We were going to be forever dependent on foreign oil.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/imports-and-exports.php

Under Biden we are quickly reversing that progress.

United States oil production has fallen by 1.7 million barrels/day since last year at this time.

Who has been the largest beneficiary?

Russia.

For example, in April, 2018 we imported 7.3 million barrels of oil from Russia.

In April, 2021 (the most recent month reported) we imported 20.6 million barrels from Russia--a three-fold increase from what is was 3 years ago.

Energy analysts predict this trend will continue.

To make matters worse, at the same time that Biden was shutting down construction of the Keystone XL pipeline between Canada and the United States, he was removing sanctions against Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/18/biden-sanctions-nord-stream-pipeline-489437

Various sanctions had been put in place by the Trump administration in order to prevent completion of the pipeline that would make Europe more dependent on Russia and also weaken Ukraine.

“Nord Stream 2, if completed, would give Russia the means to completely bypass Ukraine, depriving Ukraine of vital revenues and opening it up to further Russian aggressive actions, while providing the means to use natural resources as a tool of political pressure and malign influence against Western Europe,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement.

The Trump administration also wanted our European allies to buy more liquid natural gas from the United States to benefit natural gas producers in the United States.

Since fracking technology took hold in the last decade the United States has become a huge exporter or liquid natural gas to countries around the world.

It raises a simple question.

Why would the Biden administration shut down a pipeline between the United States and Canada but allow a pipeline to be completed between Russia and Europe?

The Keystone XL pipeline would have benefitted Americans with increased supply of oil for United States refineries for lower cost energy. It would also be more environmentally sound in that the oil would be transported by pipeline rather than by rail cars as it is now which are much more susceptible to spills.

It should also be noted that the company building the Keystone XL pipeline just announced they are filing a $15 billion lawsuit against the Biden administration for damages due to breaching the prior agreement to proceed with construction of the pipeline.

Source: https://news.yahoo.com/keystone-xl-pipeline-company-announces-180100761.html

Unfortunately, if the Keystone XL pipeline owners win the lawsuit,  Biden won't have to pay the $15 billion. The American people will.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline benefits Russia and makes Europe more dependent on Russia. It also will have the effect of limiting the ability of U.S. firms to sell LNG to the European market. Biden is allowing this to proceed.

The cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline will result in higher U.S. energy costs and ultimately result in higher consumer prices and loss of jobs for Americans.

In what reality does any of this make any sense?

It is totally inexplicable to any thinking person.

Which side are they on?

The only conclusion that can be drawn is...

They don't seem to care one iota for Americans.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm-July, 2021 Edition

A few charts and graphs that provide some interesting insights on the world we live in right now. They  might even make you go Hmmmmmm!

The Political Divide

A lot of people wonder about the political divide in our country. 

This chart from the Economist.com provides some perspective.

In 1994, when Bill Clinton was President, there was not much difference in the the political ideology of Democrats and Republicans.

By 2017, a massive divide had developed.

The average Democrat in 1994 was right in the middle (5 out of 10) on a scale that measured ideology from consistently liberal to consistently conservative.

The average Republican was a 6 out of 10--- a little right of center.

In 2017, the average Republican was rated at 6.5---just slightly more conservative than in 1994.

However, the average Democrat was a 2 on that scale. That is a massive shift left.

If you wonder where the political divide is coming from today look no further than this chart.

Who is further from the center?

The Stock Market

The stock market has been on an incredible run this year. 

Stock prices are subject to the same economic rules of supply and demand as anything else.

2021 has seen an unprecedented amount of money that wants to be invested in stocks.

Consider this chart from The Wall Street Journal's The Daily Shot.

There have been more inflows to equities in 2021 (annualized) than in the previous 20 years combined!

That is a lot of demand. That demand has been fueled by an abundant supply of money due to Federal Reserve policies and federal government stimulus actions.

When combined with record low interest rates on bonds, this has motivated investors to move their investments from fixed income investments and assume more risk in equities.

You can see this as well in the TD Ameritrade "Investor Movement Index" that shows the exuberance of retail investors about the stock market. The sentiment has never been more positive.

What could go wrong?

Source: https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/1412707642372415489/photo/1

 

People Die From Things Other Than Covid

While deaths from Covid have been in the news every day for the last 18 months, people die from a variety of causes.

I thought the graphic below was an interesting perspective on the numbers who are killed by various members of the animal kingdom.

Everyone is concerned about shark attacks because of the publicity they receive in the media (does this remind you of anything?) but did you know that ants kills 6 times as many people as sharks do in a typical year.

Source: https://twitter.com/theRoddick/status/1408759614607351812

Looking at this data, I would also suggest that you give a wide berth to any hippos you might encounter.

Is the Pandemic Over?

57% of Republicans say the pandemic is over. Only 4% of Democrats agree. This is based on a recent Gallup survey.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/351650/three-americans-think-pandemic.aspx

The political divide I mentioned above clearly applies to attitudes about the pandemic as well.

You can also see an enormous divide in Restaurant Reservations Data that Open Table reports between eateries in states like Florida, Texas and Nevada compared to what is going on in restaurants in California and New York.

Activity at restaurants in Ft Lauderdale is up +40% compared to what they were seeing in 2019 before the pandemic.

Restaurants in San Francisco, Seattle, Minneapolis, New York, Portland and D.C. are down more than 50% from 2019 levels.

Source: https://twitter.com/arrington/status/1410782004728184837/photo/1

Politics seems to influence everything these days.

The Wild Ride in Jobs

A year ago we were wondering how many would have a job in a year.

We now see "Help Wanted" signs wherever we go and many employers say that their biggest challenge is finding people to work.

Voluntary resignations by employees just hit a record high.

Source: https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/1402556483645198349

At the same time, employers are letting go of fewer employees than ever. I guess they have decided a warm body is better than nobody even if they are not competing for employee of the month. If they discharge someone they may not be able to fill the position.

Source: https://www.axios.com/layoffs-all-time-low-656979a1-38e0-48d4-b3bb-5ad9b5345aa3.html

This chart sums up pretty well the wild jobs ride since the pandemic started.

Source: https://twitter.com/sam_a_bell/status/1410190377357819908

How Many Friends Do You Have?

The number of close friends that people have has dropped dramatically since 1990.

It has particularly affected the friendships among men. 15% of men report having no close friends.

The decline in friendships has also been more acute in the young than in those who are older.

It seems that the internet, iPhones, texting, Facebook and all the rest, which were supposed to allow us to connect with each other in better ways, has just gotten in the way of developing friendships.

Source: https://www.americansurveycenter.org/why-mens-social-circles-are-shrinking/

Do you think that we should be just as concerned with the number of friends these young men have rather than be worried about whether they own a gun?

What is the one thing we almost always hear when there is a mass shooting?

"He was a loner."

Hmmmmm.