Exit Stage Left

I have predicted in these pages before that I give it no better than a 1% chance that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot in November, 2024.

I also believe the probability is greater that Donald Trump will be on the ballot than Joe Biden.

An ABC/Washington Post poll released yesterday shows why I hold that view.

Both Trump and Ron DeSantis hold seven point leads over Biden right now.

Recall that the popular vote totals in 2020 were as follows.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845

 

Turning a nearly 5 point margin to a 7 point deficit in a little over two years is not easy to do.

Joe Biden has done it.

If you look at the poll results it is clear that right now the 2024 election is much more about Joe Biden than who he runs against.

Trump and DeSantis are polling almost identically against Biden.

You see the problems that Biden has when you look at some of the internals in the poll.

Only 41% think Biden is honest and trustworthy.

Only 32% believe that he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as President.

Just 33% see Biden as in good enough physical health to serve effectively as President.

With numbers like these it is hard to imagine the Democrat establishment not looking for a reason to gracefully get Biden to exit gracefully to stage left.

The Democrat establishment has too much at stake at who is sitting in the White House to risk staying with Biden if he continues to poll like this.

There is too much money, too much Dem patronage and all the rest for the Democrat establishment to trust this election to Biden.

You get a better idea of the uneasiness voters feel about Biden right in looking at answers to other questions in the poll.

Over 50% of poll respondents stated that Donald Trump should face criminal charges for events surrounding the 2020 election, his handling of classified documents after he left office or the events connected to January 6th.

Despite this, Trump still leads Biden by 7 points in the poll?

To get that poll result you have to have a number of voters who believe Trump should be indicted but also believe he is a better choice for President than Joe Biden.

I think that says a lot more about Biden than it does Trump.

The following poll question must also be striking fear in the Democrat establishment (and the mainstream media) right now.

Trump beats Biden on handing the economy by 54%-36%.

Remember how we were told how bad things were during the Trump years?

And how we are continually told how the Biden administration has improved things?

This is Biden speaking on Friday about how he has produced an economy that is better than Trump's.

Look, when I came to office, we had incredibly high unemployment, we were in a situation where we had very little movement on anything going on. And look at the employment rate now. Just today, 250,000 new jobs, highest participation in 75 years of women in the job market, lowest unemployment rate for African Americans. Things are moving.

Of course, he only wants to compare his performance to the months of the Covid lockdowns

In fact, the economy is the theme in Biden's most recent ad for 2024.

It is all great according to the Democrats.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3985777-biden-campaign-2024-ad-economy/

The problem for Biden is that voters are not buying it.

Inflation is squeezing household budgets. Interest rates have soared. Regional banks are failing. The federal debt continues to be left unaddressed.

You add it all up and Biden has the lowest approval rating (36%) of ANY President at this point 18 months away from the general election.

From ABC News analysis of the poll results.

Biden's approval rating is numerically the lowest on record for any first-term president a year and a half from the next presidential election in polling dating to Harry Truman. Similar was Gerald Ford, at 40% approval in May 1975; Jimmy Carter, at 37% in May 1979; and Trump, at 39% in April 2019. None were re-elected.

There is a lot of time left before the 2024 elections and many twists and turns remain that could change the electoral landscape before then.

However, based on what I am seeing today do not be surprised if Joe Biden exits stage left before the American people start voting. 

As a good Democrat, you can be assured he will not exit stage right.

Are You Up to Date?

I thought this was an interesting headline this week.

Credit: https://archive.is/n07iB

It seems that at least 35 attendees at a recent CDC conference (the first CDC in-person meeting in four years) have reported testing positive shortly after attending the meeting near the CDC headquarters in Atlanta.

The article listed the likely cause to be that many attendees did not mask or socially distance as the CDC recommended earlier in the pandemic.

Attendees said that many people did not mask, socially distance or take other precautions that CDC recommended earlier in the pandemic.

Of course, that earlier advice was before the "safe and effective" vaccines were rolled out which the CDC Director and others said would prevent you from getting or transmitting the virus. 

Source: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/04/cdc-data-suggests-vaccinated-dont-carry-cant-spread-virus.html

Is it possible that the CDC attendees who attended were not up to date on their vaccinations to prevent an outbreak like this?

For those who have not kept up, the CDC recently changed the recommendations regarding Covid vaccines.

The CDC is now saying that you are not protected if you had the two original doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or the boosters from the original vaccines.

To be protected and up to date now, you need to have had at least one dose of the updated Pfizer or Moderna bivalent shots.

These shots were first introduced last September. Therefore, if you have not had a booster since then you are not considered up-to-date no matter how many original shots and previous boosters you might have had.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html#All

In other words, the CDC has effectively admitted that all of those mandated shots that were required for many to keep their jobs are now considered useless in protecting against Covid.

If someone was not vaccinated previously and wants to be current, they can skip all the previous doses and boosters and take just one dose of the updated bivalent Pfizer and Moderna vaccine and be considered "protected".

I also wonder how someone who rolled up their sleeves took the vaccines and a couple of boosters and ended up with Covid once or twice is supposed to feel about this?

What is also interesting is that they have determined that only half the dose they originally recommended is "effective". 

That suggests that the original two doses were overkill and not necessary to elicit the necessary immune response based on revised research and testing results.

I am wondering how many who were previously not vaccinated against Covid are actually going to now decide to get vaccinated for the the first time? One dose is now all you need.

Could there be one or two in the entire country?

In fact, it does not look like many who previously took the original vaccines are choosing to be vaccinated again with the bivalent vaccines based on the most recent CDC data.

This graph shows the total vaccine doses administered since they were first introduced in December, 2020.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

In effect, the CDC is now stating that all of the vaccine doses administered to the left of the arrow should not be considered as protective at this point.

As a general rule, less than 20% of Americans have been persuaded to take the bivalent vaccine over the last eight months.

However, about 40% of those over age 65 have done so.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-booster-percent-total

It is interesting to see how far the vaccine uptake has fallen as more people decided for themselves how "safe and effective" the vaccines were and they were not mandated to do so as a condition of employment.

The data I would be most interested in seeing is how many of those CDC meeting attendees who have tested positive were "fully vaccinated" or had taken the bivalent vaccine?

Of course, this is the type of data that we never see.

This blog post gets you up to date with the latest information of the Covid vaccines.

This may also mean that you have now found out that you are not up to date with your vaccines according to the CDC.

Of course, when all is said and done that might actually prove to be a good thing.

The problem is that no one seems to want to find out whether that is true or not.

You can bet the CDC and NIH are not putting the resources together to find out.

They made up their minds a long time ago and they seem intent on never admitting that they might have been wrong about anything they told us.

That leaves the rest of us scratching our heads and wondering who to believe?

Right now it does not appear that many are turning to the CDC and NIH for expert advice.

They seem to be relying on what some would call their "lying eyes".

Reset to Zero

I play golf with a large group of retirees several times a week.

There are 50 or so players in the total group with about half playing in any given round.

Over the course of the year everyone plays a few rounds with everyone else.

The interesting thing about the group is that most of us know very little about the lives of others before we got together to play golf.

Some worked for large corporations. Some had their own businesses. Some were professionals. Some worked in blue collar jobs.

It does not matter what they did before.

Today is all that counts.

The only thing that matters now is what happens on the golf course. Or what is going on with their grandchildren, the next trip they have planned or the score from last night's Reds game.

We were talking about this one day after a round and one of the guys mentioned he knows someone at a high end club who is always talking about what he did before he retired.

He had 4,000 people working for him. He controlled a $500 million budget and all the rest.

His playing partners are always telling him.

"Nobody cares what you did before."

How true that is.

In fact, isn't that the way life works?

You may have been an all-state quarterback or head cheerleader in high school but it doesn't mean anything when you get to college.

You start over in having to build a new resume.

You may have gone to Stanford but it doesn't mean anything when you are in the work world

Someone from Sacramento State may outwork or outmaneuver you in a business deal or for a promotion at work.

You may have been the man about town or hostess with the mostest in Greenwich but when you relocate to Gulf Breeze you are starting over.

You need to build a reputation on what you are doing today. The past does not count much when assessing today.

It is almost as if we are always being reset to zero in our lives.

I found it interesting over the weekend that Jon Rahm understands this despite being The Masters champion and the number one ranked golfer in the world.

Credit: https://performanceoptimalhealth.com/blog/exercise/how-john-rahm-prepares-his-body-for-play/

He finished second in the Mexico Open on Sunday to Tony Finau after having won the same tournament last year.

Rahm was asked this question in the press room after the round. 

Q: Even as someone who’s the No. 1 golfer on the Tour and has won so much out here, how valuable is it to have this experience continuously being in the hunt on Sunday like you were?” 

His answer says a lot about understanding the truth of what I am saying.

Answered Rahm: “Yeah, I mean, it’s a great reminder that what you’ve done means absolutely nothing; you still have to go out there and do it.”

It is particularly true in golf.

I don't think there is any sport in which the combination of variables in the swing, the external challenges of the golf course and the weather, and the mental aspects of the game means that your past means nothing each time you tee it up.

As evidence of that, consider that over 10,000 golfers are currently attempting to qualify to play in the U.S.  Open that will be played at Los Angeles Country Club in June.

An amateur must have a 1.4 handicap index or lower to be eligible to enter the tournament.

Consider this scorecard of a player at Medford Village Country Club in Philadelphia on Monday in local qualifying for the Open. 

A birdie on the first hole and he undoubtedly might have had a thought or two about his flight to L.A.

It all changed on the second tee.

When he walked off the second green he added 11 shots to his score.

That birdie on the first hole did not matter much anymore.

Remember that this is someone who is close to being a scratch golfer.

I give him credit for finishing.

He was not alone.

Here are other scores at the US Open local qualifier in Philadelphia of golfers who had a record of playing close to scratch golf.

These were undoubtedly players who were the best golfers at their clubs or in their towns.

It did not mean anything when they stepped on the first tee at Medford Village Country Club.

I am not showing the names below because anyone who has played golf has been there. 

There is no need to compound the pain.

Source: https://www.golfgenius.com/pages/3879313

The good news is that tomorrow is another day. For these golfers and everyone else.

Life may keep resetting us to zero.

However, with every new day we have the opportunity to make something better out of it.

We may get reset to zero but there are no limits on what we can do with a new day and a new beginning.

Flashing Red Signals

There seem to be a lot of flashing red signals on the economy lately.

 First Republic Bank

First Republic Bank is the latest bank to fail. It was recently the 14th largest bank in the United States.

Its stock was priced at $122.50 share on March 1. It closed Friday at $3.51.

Shareholders have lost $30 billion in this stock over the last year.

Credit: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1651998785898262535/photo/1

Just over a month ago a consortium of 11 banks deposited $30 billion into First Republic to prop ii up in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank failure.

Despite that fact, First Republic still saw a decline in its deposits of massive proportions in the first quarter that continued through April.

Deposits in the first quarter alone decreased 36% from year-end.

All banks are seeing outflows of deposits as money tends to go where it is treated best. The reality is that bank deposit rates are just not competitive with money market funds and treasury securities right now.

$5 trillion in deposits have been withdrawn from banks in the last 12 months. This has disproportionately affected regional banks like First Republic this year in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank failure.

First Republic's problems are a direct result of rising interest rates and poor risk management controls. It has many large, low jumbo fixed rate mortgages and treasury securities on its books matched against large deposits (over half over the FDIC limit of $250,000). 

As interest rates have risen its assets lost more and more value. 

At the same time, as interest rates rose depositors began withdrawing their money and bought T-bills or put the money in money market funds to avoid the minuscule interest First Republic was paying on its deposits.

Each withdrawal made First Republic weaker and resulted in more withdrawals. It ultimately becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What was First Republic focused on rather than its financial risk management situation?

It was busy virtue signaling on what a good, good bank it was to those West Coast liberals that made up a large proportion  of their deposit and customer base.

Credit: https://twitter.com/US_OGA/status/1652311879295938563/photo/1

I would also say that you have to appreciate Elon Musk's humor at times like these.

Commercial Real Estate

A big problem for banks that is going to get more and more attention are their loans on commercial real estate in large cities.

Values on these properties are dropping as occupancy rates decline and vacancies increase.

This is true for both office buildings and retail.

Banks that have large loans in this sector are undoubtedly going to feel pain.

For example, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the office vacancy rate in downtown San Francisco is at 30%. One office building that was valued at $300 million before the pandemic is now only worth about $60 million.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-commercial-real-estate-office-buildings-471742ea?mod=djem10point

Credit: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1651793360976265218

Why are we seeing this?

Despite the fact that we are three years beyond the beginning of the pandemic, offices in most major cities only have about 50% of the occupancy by employees they once did.

This chart shows the story.

If employees are not coming into the office the employer does not need as much office space at the next lease renewal.

You can also see what is going on in many cities by looking at cell phone traffic.

Cell phone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels. In Portland it is at 37%.

In Salt Lake City it is at 135% of pre-pandemic levels. In Fresno it is at 121%.

Being the landlord or lender of real estate in cities like San Francisco looks to be a risky proposition right now.

Corrugated Container Shipments

My father was in the corrugated container business.

He always told me that his business was an excellent signal to look at insofar as the overall economy was concerned.

When the economy was good he sold at lot of boxes. When it was bad sales dropped in sync.

Credit: https://gbepackaging.com/Category/boxes-corrugated-40225

Considering what my father told me I was interested to see this recent chart regarding box shipments made by Packaging Corporation of America which is a major supplier in this sector.

Was my father right?

It looks like another flashing red signal.

Money Supply

This is not a very good signal either.

Money supply has contracted year over year for the first time in 90 years.

Yes, we are coming off of a gigantic increase in the money supply due to the money printing at the Fed.

However, the other four times over the last 150 years there was a contraction in the money supply we ended up in tough economic times.

Credit: https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650927931126849548

All of the previous times we saw the money supply contract like this there were bank failures and unemployment rates that reached 10%.

Will history repeat in a Fourth Turning?

Labor Unrest in the UK

In the 1970's it seemed that there was always some type of labor strike occurring in the UK that was reported in the U.S news.

This has been rare in recent years.

However, the tide has turned as inflation has squeezed every worker's pay.

This is a stunning chart.

Can you say labor unrest?

Credit: https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1650626132813955072

Almost 25% of workers in the U.K. are unionized compared to less than 10% in the United States.

This is one reason we have not seen a similar number of strikes in the U.S.

UK households also have had to deal with much higher energy price hikes than the U.S. 

Increases in Prices of Electricity in UK
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/czcz/mm23

However, if there is this much worker angst in the U.K. about wages being squeezed it can't be far below the surface in the States.

Household Surveys on Economy

Fox News poll indicates that 70% of registered voters currently believe that it feels the economy is getting worse for their family.

This is highest negative score since this question was first asked in this poll.

Only 21% rate the economy Excellent/Good in the same poll. 78% say it is Fair/Poor.

75% if respondents in a recent Gallup survey believe that economic conditions are getting worse right now.

That number was 46% in 2021 shortly after Joe Biden took office.

Signals are flashing red almost everywhere you look right now.

Plan accordingly.

The Smartest Women In The Room?

The Democrats like to proclaim that they have the market cornered on providing rights and opportunities for women.

If you listen to the narrative you might think that there is no hope for any woman who is not a Democrat to ascend to any position of power.

The White House held this summit meeting last month in Washington, D.C.

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/28/the-status-of-women-is-the-status-of-democracy-advancing-womens-political-and-civic-participation-and-leadership-at-the-second-summit-for-democracy/

Kamala Harris said this about the summit.

“The status of women is the status of democracy.” 

 

Of course, any discussion of political power should consider whether the person we are entrusting with leading us (man or woman) is qualified for the task.

Why is Kamala Harris a heartbeat away from holding the most powerful office in the world?

Is it because you has superior intellect. Is she one of the great leaders and visionaries of our time?

It is because Joe Biden committed to pick a woman as his running mate and later narrowed that to minority women.

It had nothing to do with the best person for the job.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/politics/joe-biden-four-black-women-vice-president/index.html

Democracy?

We have a woman who on her own merit could not break 1% in the polls and could not even sustain her own Presidential bid until the first primary caucus in Iowa.

Harris has become principally known in her VP role for nonsensical dribble in speeches or interviews that cause almost everyone to scratch their heads and ask does she have any idea what she is saying?

Link to video: https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1651048078290329600

Source: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/word-salad

Harris seems to like to put together big words in an attempt to sound intelligent but in so doing insures that any thinking person has to arrive at the opposite conclusion.

It reminds me of this quote that I have seen attributed to Abraham Lincoln, Mark Twain and others but research suggests is really unknown.

If we want to consider other inane comments made in the last week it is hard to top this one from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.

In testimony before Congress, Granholm states she supports our military adopting an all-electric vehicle fleet by 2030!

Note to any foreign adversaries---please install electric charging stations wherever the U.S. military might need them as our forces advance on our objectives.

Note to Secretary Granhom---what happens if the electric grid is down as it is always a primary target in any war effort? Details, details, details.

It is also worthwhile to consider that the vast majority of energy generation globally is coming from fossil fuels and will be for the foreseeable future even under the most optimistic green energy outlook. What exactly would this policy do other than cripple the United States military and weaken our national security?

We also have the report this week that New York Governor Kathy Hochul's state health department is test-marketing a plan that would ban all tobacco sales in New York State.

Credit: https://nypost.com/2023/04/22/kathy-hochul-test-marketing-ban-on-all-ny-tobacco-sales/

At the same time she wants to ban tobacco sales, Hochul has been pushing for a number of years to totally legalize marijuana in the state.

Source: https://cheddar.com/media/lt-gov-hochul-ny-legalize-cannabis-need-money

Source: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/03/17/lawmakers-eye-big-changes-to-state-s-marijuana-law

You can't sell tobacco but you can sell pot?

Do you see a lot of intellectual consistency in those policy positions?

There is nothing but crass political posturing in everything referenced above from all of these women.

Are we to believe these Democrats are the smartest women in the room... or any room?

Hobson's Choice?

Joe Biden officially announced yesterday that he is running for re-election in 2024.

Source:https://joebiden.com

Donald Trump announced he was officially in the race earlier this year.

This sets up a potential 2024 Presidential election pitting Biden who will be 82 years old that year and Trump who will be 78.

Despite the fact that both Trump and Biden have announced they are running I still stand by the prediction I made in January that I believe there is only a 1% chance that both will be on ballot in November, 2024.

I don't like making political predictions because it is too easy to be wrong. I prefer analysis based on data.

However, if I were to place odds on Biden 2.0 vs. Trump 2.0 right now, I would suggest there is only a 1% chance that both Biden and Trump will be the candidates on the final ballot in 2024.

In fact, I believe there is less than a 50% chance that even one of them will be on the ballot in November, 2024 as I forecast the next Presidential race at the present time.

There are too many cautionary signs out there for both Trump and Biden right now.

It is still a long road ahead for both of these candidates.

A lot can happen in the next 18 months.

I could very well be proven wrong but it is pretty clear in current polling that most voters do not want either Biden or Trump on the ballot in 2024.

70% of voters do not think Biden should run for President in 2024 according to a recent NBC News poll.

Another poll, an AP/NORC survey, found that 52% of Democrats alone do not want Biden to run in 2024.

Those are staggering poll numbers for an incumbent seeking re-election.

Trump's numbers on this question are a little better but should not give Trump supporters a lot of comfort.

60% of all voters do not think Trump should be on the ballot in the 2024 general election.

When I was in law school I took a course in Admiralty Law.

In that course I was introduced to the term "Hobson's Choice".

For example, assume the Captain of a ship only has the choice of running aground or running into another ship.

The Captain is free to choose either course of action but there is no real alternative. Either choice will result in losing the ship and losing his command. 

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/

Right now the 2024 general election looks like a potential Hobson's Choice election for many voters.

Right now I actually believe that it is more likely that Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot than Joe Biden.

Trump clearly carries a lot of baggage but his support among Republicans has solidified over the last few months as it appears that he has been unfairly targeted by the FBI in the documents controversy and in the the New York indictment.

Trump only had a margin of 11 points over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among potential GOP primary voters in January. He now is up 37 points over DeSantis.

Yes, DeSantis has not formally announced he is running yet but Trump has clearly strengthened his position since the beginning of the year compared to DeSantis.

I also continue to believe that the worse matters get in the United States with Biden at the helm the better Donald Trump looks to voters.

Biden has two announced Democrat challenging him thus far---Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

A USA Today/Suffolk poll done shortly after Kennedy entered the race shows that 14% of Biden voters in 2020 would back RFK, Jr. 5% would support Williamson.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/19/rfk-jr-campaign-poll-biden-voters/11690888002/

Those are not comforting numbers for Biden.

If Biden continues to poll poorly could it embolden a Gavin Newsome, Michelle Obama or another Democrat to get in the race and push Biden out?

That scenario would not surprise me.

At this point the DNC and the Democrat establishment is doing everything it can to protect Biden from primary competition.

Fro example, the DNC currently has no plans to schedule any primary debates for the Democrat candidates

A number of Democrats have even criticized this stance.

Does Biden think he can win in 2024 hiding in his basement again?

The polling in the NBC News poll on a general election matchup of Biden-Trump 2.0 is also interesting.

Only 21% of voters state they will definitely vote for Biden in the general election in 2024.

39% of voters polled stated they would definitely vote for the Republican candidate in 2024 (Trump, DeSantis or someone else).

If you add up the probables Biden gets to 41%. However, the GOP candidate is at 47%.

It is another warning sign involving Biden.

Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23786178-nbc-april-2023-poll?responsive=1&title=1

Another insight from the NBC News poll is that only 21% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 stated they did so because they liked him or his policies.

25% voted for Biden in 2020 because they did not like Trump or his policies.

That number is one that DeSantis or the other Trump challengers need to promote in their campaigns.

On the other hand, only 10% voted for Trump because they did not like Biden or his policies but 31% voted for him because they liked him or his policies.

It goes without saying Trump is.a polarizing figure. 

Many love him but many cannot stand him.

It is undoubtedly true that Trump has a unique ability to attract many voters who are otherwise disaffected from politics.

The question that remains is whether the numbers of those voters outnumber those who he turns off?

The election results in 2024 may be decided on that answer.

In the meantime, all of this polling data may give you a better idea why I think there is no better than a 1% chance that both Trump and Biden will be on the ballot in November, 2024.

And I have not even touched on potential health issues or further damaging investigations or revelations that might surface with either of these two men in the next 18 months.

There is a long road ahead for both of these candidates and we have barely started.