Hobson's Choice?

Joe Biden officially announced yesterday that he is running for re-election in 2024.

Source:https://joebiden.com

Donald Trump announced he was officially in the race earlier this year.

This sets up a potential 2024 Presidential election pitting Biden who will be 82 years old that year and Trump who will be 78.

Despite the fact that both Trump and Biden have announced they are running I still stand by the prediction I made in January that I believe there is only a 1% chance that both will be on ballot in November, 2024.

I don't like making political predictions because it is too easy to be wrong. I prefer analysis based on data.

However, if I were to place odds on Biden 2.0 vs. Trump 2.0 right now, I would suggest there is only a 1% chance that both Biden and Trump will be the candidates on the final ballot in 2024.

In fact, I believe there is less than a 50% chance that even one of them will be on the ballot in November, 2024 as I forecast the next Presidential race at the present time.

There are too many cautionary signs out there for both Trump and Biden right now.

It is still a long road ahead for both of these candidates.

A lot can happen in the next 18 months.

I could very well be proven wrong but it is pretty clear in current polling that most voters do not want either Biden or Trump on the ballot in 2024.

70% of voters do not think Biden should run for President in 2024 according to a recent NBC News poll.

Another poll, an AP/NORC survey, found that 52% of Democrats alone do not want Biden to run in 2024.

Those are staggering poll numbers for an incumbent seeking re-election.

Trump's numbers on this question are a little better but should not give Trump supporters a lot of comfort.

60% of all voters do not think Trump should be on the ballot in the 2024 general election.

When I was in law school I took a course in Admiralty Law.

In that course I was introduced to the term "Hobson's Choice".

For example, assume the Captain of a ship only has the choice of running aground or running into another ship.

The Captain is free to choose either course of action but there is no real alternative. Either choice will result in losing the ship and losing his command. 

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/

Right now the 2024 general election looks like a potential Hobson's Choice election for many voters.

Right now I actually believe that it is more likely that Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot than Joe Biden.

Trump clearly carries a lot of baggage but his support among Republicans has solidified over the last few months as it appears that he has been unfairly targeted by the FBI in the documents controversy and in the the New York indictment.

Trump only had a margin of 11 points over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among potential GOP primary voters in January. He now is up 37 points over DeSantis.

Yes, DeSantis has not formally announced he is running yet but Trump has clearly strengthened his position since the beginning of the year compared to DeSantis.

I also continue to believe that the worse matters get in the United States with Biden at the helm the better Donald Trump looks to voters.

Biden has two announced Democrat challenging him thus far---Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

A USA Today/Suffolk poll done shortly after Kennedy entered the race shows that 14% of Biden voters in 2020 would back RFK, Jr. 5% would support Williamson.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/19/rfk-jr-campaign-poll-biden-voters/11690888002/

Those are not comforting numbers for Biden.

If Biden continues to poll poorly could it embolden a Gavin Newsome, Michelle Obama or another Democrat to get in the race and push Biden out?

That scenario would not surprise me.

At this point the DNC and the Democrat establishment is doing everything it can to protect Biden from primary competition.

Fro example, the DNC currently has no plans to schedule any primary debates for the Democrat candidates

A number of Democrats have even criticized this stance.

Does Biden think he can win in 2024 hiding in his basement again?

The polling in the NBC News poll on a general election matchup of Biden-Trump 2.0 is also interesting.

Only 21% of voters state they will definitely vote for Biden in the general election in 2024.

39% of voters polled stated they would definitely vote for the Republican candidate in 2024 (Trump, DeSantis or someone else).

If you add up the probables Biden gets to 41%. However, the GOP candidate is at 47%.

It is another warning sign involving Biden.

Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23786178-nbc-april-2023-poll?responsive=1&title=1

Another insight from the NBC News poll is that only 21% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 stated they did so because they liked him or his policies.

25% voted for Biden in 2020 because they did not like Trump or his policies.

That number is one that DeSantis or the other Trump challengers need to promote in their campaigns.

On the other hand, only 10% voted for Trump because they did not like Biden or his policies but 31% voted for him because they liked him or his policies.

It goes without saying Trump is.a polarizing figure. 

Many love him but many cannot stand him.

It is undoubtedly true that Trump has a unique ability to attract many voters who are otherwise disaffected from politics.

The question that remains is whether the numbers of those voters outnumber those who he turns off?

The election results in 2024 may be decided on that answer.

In the meantime, all of this polling data may give you a better idea why I think there is no better than a 1% chance that both Trump and Biden will be on the ballot in November, 2024.

And I have not even touched on potential health issues or further damaging investigations or revelations that might surface with either of these two men in the next 18 months.

There is a long road ahead for both of these candidates and we have barely started.