Perception and Reality

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.”

This quote has been attributed to Mark Twain.

The problem today is that in a world in which more information is readily available than at anytime in history there seems to be more people who don't know basic facts.

There is a wide gap between what people believe to be true and what is actually true.

If you doubt this take a look at this survey that was done by YouGovAmerica which asked 1,000 U.S. adult citizens to estimate the percentage of adults in various demographic groups.

The degree to which the perception of those surveyed differed from reality is remarkable.

Credit: https://twitter.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1648515040948146178/photo/1

 

Respondents believed that 20% of households in the United States had incomes of over $1 million.

The actual numbers do not even round up to 1%.

Respondents believed that 21% of American adults are trans and 30% are gay or lesbian. 

The actual percentages are 1% and 3%.

They estimated that 30% of Americans were Jewish when the actual number is 2%.

They believe that 40% of adults are military veterans compared to 6% being the true proportion.

What can we take from this?

First, it shows the extent with which mathematical illiteracy or innumeracy is prevalent in the United States.

It also shows a dearth of critical thinking skills. 

Look at the numbers above on estimates of those who live in New York City, California and Florida.

Respondents estimated that 30% of Americans lived in New York City, 32% in California and 30% in Texas. That equals 92% of the population. 

If anyone stopped and considered their answer for more than a millisecond they would see that is impossible.

Unfortunately, very few apply basic critical thinking skills anymore.

Second, I believe the answers show how pervasive and persuasive the news media, social media and popular media are in shaping the views and perceptions of Americans.

Why do people believe that 20% of Americans are making more than $1 million?

Is it because the news media and various politicians like to blame "the rich" for many of the nation's ills?

Is it because the lifestyles of the rich and famous are so prominent in popular media?

Why do people believe that 92% of Americans live in New York City, California or Texas?

Consider how many movies or tv shows have a connection to these areas.

Why do people believe that 30% are gay or lesbian?

Can you watch a tv show or movie and not see a gay or lesbian character?

I would have liked to see a survey question on the estimate of the percentage of married couples that are mixed race.

It seems today that nearly every commercial on tv involves a mixed race couple and often included biracial children.

Nissan tv commercial
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kS9TEzAciU

Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_race-america_americans-see-more-interracial-relationships-advertising/6202928.html

State Farm Insurance ad
Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_race-america_americans-see-more-interracial-relationships-advertising/6202928.html

This is portrayed as common place.

What are the actual numbers?

Only 7% of the 63 million married couples in the United States are mixed race.

63% of married couples in the United States are both white.

6% of married couples are both Black.

12% of married couples are both Hispanic.

Number of married couples in the United States in 2022, by ethnic group and origin of spouses
(in 1,000s)
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/242028/number-of-married-couples-in-the-us-by-ethnic-group-and-combination/

You can be sure that the estimates of the numbers of mixed race couples would be high if it was surveyed.

All of this would be funny if not for the fact that the same people who believe they know what is going on around them are also voting.

In fact, their vote counts as much as my vote or yours.

Perception is reality if someone is never exposed to the real facts.

It is a reason that we have the troubles we do in the United States today.

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so."

                                                                                                               -Mark Twain

It is also the reason I write this blog.

I try to focus on three things.

Facts. Data. Reality.

BeeLine is always trying to be the shortest route to what you need to know that is really so.

Share it liberally from time to time with  friends who need to know what is so.