What Next For Trump?

One of the big stories last week was the indictment of Donald Trump by a New York grand jury based on allegations of fraud related to so-called hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign.

The exact charges are not known at this time as the indictment is sealed.

Credit: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-indicted-in-manhattan-first-ex-president-to-be-charged-with-a-crime/

The indictment has resulted in big headlines but what does it mean?

First, most independent legal analysts suggest that New York District Attorney has embarked on a political prosecution rather than a legal one.

What is known about the facts in the case make the charges incredibly flimsy.

Payments made to Stormy Daniels were made almost seven years by former Trump associate Michael Cohen.

The payments in questions were already investigated by the Federal Election Commission and the U.S. Justice Department who declined to pursue any charges.

The Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg, has political ambitions to run for Governor or Senator in New York.

Trump only received 14.5% of the vote in Manhattan in 2020. He got 23% overall in New York City.

It simply is not bad politics to indict Trump in Manhattan.

However, is this the way justice is supposed to work in the United States of America?

And with the vote totals against him in 2020 how is it possible for Trump to get a fair trial of his peers in New York City?

By comparison, Hillary Clinton's campaign paid millions of dollars to craft a fake Russian dossier against Trump in the 2016 election and hid the payments as "legal fees" in federal election campaign finance reports. 

The Clinton campaign was actually fined by the Federal Election Commission for the fraud.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/30/politics/clinton-dnc-steele-dossier-fusion-gps/index.html

The FEC voted 4-1 that there was no evidence that either Trump or his campaign "knowingly and willfully" violated campaign finance laws. That was not the case with Clinton and the DNC.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/552271-fec-drops-investigation-into-trump-hush-money-payments/

The last I checked Hillary Clinton has not been indicted for anything either.

An interesting legal argument is if this case goes forward on the basis that state charges can be brought over what is essentially a federal issue, does that  then open the door for a state like Wyoming, South Dakota or another red state to do the same thing to Hillary Clinton or another Democrat?

Yes, we are atop a very slippery slope.

Second, what does this mean for Trump's 2024 election prospects?

I predicted almost two years ago that the Democrats could be expected to do something like this in light of the hatred (and fear) they have of the man.

Yes, there really is a Trump Derangement Syndrome infecting many people.They are not all just Democrats either.

This is what I wrote in July, 2021 assessing Trump's potential prospects in 2024.

There is little question that the Democrats are going to turn over every rock and throw everything they can at Trump and his family the next few years.  They clearly live in fear of the man. They may get something that sticks and get people to believe that it is more than political retribution. If they do, Trump will not be viable in 2024 as his political brand will be permanently damaged. Once you lose trust you don't get it back.

The question is whether this will be viewed as a legitimate prosecution by the voters?

It does not look that way from what I know right now.

It may curry favor with the hard core base of the Democrat party.

However, how does it play with other voters?

If the Republican primary was held right now I would most likely vote for someone other than Trump.

As I have written before, there has been no President in my lifetime who was better aligned between what he promised he would do when he campaigned and what he actually did as President.

Despite the bluster and over the top rhetoric, it is hard to find fault with how he governed. There was nothing unhinged about any decisions he made while in office.

However, there is a good argument that it is time for someone younger to be on the ticket in 2024. Trump will be 79 years old in 2025. That is even truer if Biden is the Democrat nominee.

Trump's antics also get in the way of the message. Is there someone who will govern like Trump without the drama?

That being said, this prosecution, as well as the FBI raid over the "classified documents" at Mar-a-Lago, the disclosures about the collusion between the FBI and Twitter and other social media companies to censor the Hunter Biden laptop story during the 2016 election clearly shows that there is a double standard in place in the United States.

If Donald Trump is a crook show me he is a crook with something that does not look like a political prosecution.

Has there been anyone in the world that has been under more scrutiny over the last seven years? 

Is there anything in Trump's life or business dealings that hasn't been examined in microscopic detail in  hopes to get rid of him over that time?

This is the best they can do in indicting Trump for a crime?

All of this reminds me of of this quote by the head of Joseph Stalin's Secret Police in the Soviet Union.

Beria would target Stalin's enemies first and then fabricate the crime. You were presumed guilty and the blanks were filled in later.

It is far different than the presumption of innocence that is supposed to be an underlying principle of the American justice system.

Of course, it does not seem that Nancy Pelosi believes that applies to Donald Trump.

Does anyone believe that Twitter would have added this context before Elon Musk bought it?

Right now the political prosecutions of Trump appears to be making him stronger.

How else can you explain this reversal in polling between Trump and DeSantis since the beginning of this year?

Of course, this poll is only of Republican voters in the primary.

Can Trump prevail in the general election with Independents and suburban women voters?

The conventional argument is that he cannot. However, there is a lot of polling to suggest that Trump has the unique ability to attract disaffected voters to the polls that might otherwise not vote at all. There is evidence that this ability outweighs his other disadvantages.

I still stand by the prediction I made in January that I believe the odds that both Trump and Biden will be on the ballot in the general election in 2024 to be less than 1%.

Perhaps one of the two will gain the nomination for their party but I still give that no better than 50/50 odds.

Of course, making Presidential predictions this far out have proven to be a fool's errand more than once.

Trump had not even announced he was running for President at this point before the 2016 election.

Barack Obama had announced he was running by this time in 2007 against Hillary Clinton but he was polling below 20%.

Two years out did anyone believe that a peanut farmer from Georgia would be on the ballot in 1976 let alone become President?

We have also seen several establishment favorites at this time barely capture a handful of delegates (John Connally, Jeb Bush come to mind) when primary voting started.

We know what happened in all of those races which few expected.

A lot can happen over the next year when the primary season really heats up.

That is even more true this year than it has ever been before with the unprecedented indictment of not only a former President but a candidate for President as well.

How will it all play out?

I have no idea.

However, it promises to be an interesting and entertaining year if you are interested in politics.

Fasten your seat belts.