Caitlin Clark and the Future of Women's Basketball

It has been interesting to witness the impact that Iowa basketball star Caitlin Clark has had on women's college basketball over the last year.

Iowa's women's team made it to the NCAA championship game in each of the last two years, largely due to Clark, only to lose twice---last year to LSU and this year to South Carolina.

The attention that Caitlin Clark brought to the women's game is amazing.

Consider the ratings of the NCAA women's semi-final game between Iowa and LSU which was a rematch of last year's championship game.

12.3 million watched the game.

The finals game between Iowa and South Carolina did better than that---18.9 million viewers. That is more than any basketball game---male or female---since 2019.

Source: https://theathletic.com/5400210/2024/04/08/south-carolina-iowa-caitlin-clark-viewership-record/?access_token=7059673&redirected=1

Let's put that in further context as provided in an article in The Athletic.

You begin to understand what a special talent Caitlin Clark was for Iowa when you consider this scatter graph that compares all 9,718 Division 1 basketball players (male and female)  based on assists and points scored for the 2023/24 season.

Caitlin Clark is the outlier of all outliers.

For context, I highlighted the names of Braden Smith and Zach Edey of Purdue and Tristen Newton of UConn who played in the men's championship game.

Credit: https://twitter.com/secretbase/status/1777352428503064601

Clark has now played her final college game and will be selected in the WNBA draft next week.

Two big questions follow.

Will Clark be as transformative a figure for the WNBA as she was for women's college basketball?

Will women's college basketball be able to sustain the popularity that Caitlin Clark brought to it?

I am skeptical on both questions.

Clark will undoubtedly give the WNBA some lift in popularity initially but women's professional basketball has a long way to go to be in the conversation with other professional sports leagues.

In its recently concluded season the WNBA averaged just 462,000 tv viewers per game. That is the highest it has been in the last 20 years (the league was founded in 1996). However, that is only about 2.5% of the number who watched the NCAA finals.

Compare the WNBA to the average tv ratings for other sports per telecast.

NFL              17 million

NASCAR.    2.2 millón  

NBA.            1.6 million

MLB.            1.4 million        

Caitlin Clark will bring more viewers to the WNBA but I doubt it will be sustainable.

People watched Clark and women's basketball because she was a true star and her talents were so unique compared to the competition. She will not be quite as unique at the next level.

People love to watch STARS when they stand out and above like Caitlin Clark did in college women's basketball.

It is similar to when Tiger Woods appeared on the scene with the PGA Tour. There were a lot of great players on the tour before he arrived. However, Tiger was in a completely different universe and brought interest and viewers to golf who would not normally have cared about the game.

The NCAA Tournament platform is also one that people are familiar with.

The WNBA not so much.

There have been plenty of great players that have played women's college basketball and then moved on to the WNBA in the last 25 years.

A few names to consider.. Rebecca Lobo, Sue Bird. Diane Tauasi. Lisa Leslie. Tamika Catchings. Sheryl Swoopes. Britney Griner. Cynthia Cooper.

However, before Caitlin Clark arrived on the scene the NCAA women's Final Four tv audiences were actually trending down. 

This was despite and lot of great players in the Final Four over the years and the sustained success that UConn's women's basketball had over much of that 20 year period. UConn won the national championship ten times in that span.

Source: https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/status/1777326440553345291/photo/2

This is what the chart looks like with Caitlin Clark in the Final Four the last two years. The numbers in the  chart also do not include Sunday's final game!

Source: https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/status/1777326440553345291/photo/2

Looking at the numbers, I think if the NCAA women's Final Four can draw 4 million viewers next year they should be ecstatic

As for the WNBA, if they can draw 40% of the NBA viewership with Caitlin Clark they should feel the same.

What is often missed in all of this is that it takes both Star Power + Distribution Platform = Popularity.

I wrote a blog post seven years ago on why some songs became hits and others did not. 

The biggest factors were exposure and repeated repetition.

The greatest song in the world means nothing if it is not heard a lot...and by a lot of people.

We have always heard that "content is king". Yes, you need content. In women's college basketball the content centers on the athletes--- Caitlin Clark, Kamilla Cardoso or Angel Reese.

However, content means nothing without distribution.

Derek Thompson, the author of the book "Hit Makers" said it this way.

"Content may be king, but distribution is the kingdom".

Tom Cruise might be the same actor performing in a community theatre in New Jersey as he is in Top Gun.

His fame and his fortune is due to the distribution of his films.

He might be the same guy performing at the community theater but how many would see him and how many would care?

We see the same thing with LIV golf. They have some real stars---Jon Rahm. Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau. Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, etc. but most people don't care. 

Consider the fact the final round of the LIV golf tournament at Doral in Florida on Sunday drew just 221,000 tv viewers. By comparison, the PGA Tour's Valero Texas Open had 2.2 million viewers---10x the audience.

LIV golf just does not excite very many people. The platform is weak. Its media reach is weaker.

Those same golfers playing at The Masters this week is a different story.

Caitlin Clark is taking her star power to a weak platform and she has probably already reached her peak exposure and brand value now that her NCAA career is over.

The advantage the NCAA has is that it has the platform that can showcase another Caitlin Clark if there is one out there.

The same is true for the PGA Tour. 

That is not as easy for the WNBA or LIV golf to do considering their plaforms. As structured right now, the WNBA is relying on the NCAA and LIV is dependent on the PGA Tour for their future stars and content.

Caitlin Clark provided a massive boost for women's basketball.

It was a privilege to watch her play. It was special to see how she elevated the entire Iowa team with what she did on the court.

However, much like the solar eclipse that traveled over my house this week. my guess is that her impact on driving dramatic change in the future success and interest in women's basketball in the United States will be fleeting---both at the NCAA and WNBA levels.

I hope I am wrong. 

However, I feel like I have heard this song or seen this movie before.