Things got a lot more dangerous and uncertain in the world over the weekend as Iran directly attacked Israel with a drone and missile attack launched from within its own borders.
Iran has effectively been at war with Israel for decades but heretofore has been content to conduct its hostilities through proxies. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and others in the Middle East receive funding, weapons, strategic and tactical support from the Iranians.
Most of the external war making conducted by Iran is done through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which is a multi-service branch of the country's primary army.
It is tasked with defending the Islamic Republic of Iran from both external and internal threats.
In any totalitarian regime you need muscle to insure you stay in power. The IRGC is that muscle internally. Their power even extends to wielding control over significant parts of Iran's economy.
The IRGC also has an outsized role in Iran's foreign policy and is involved in various efforts to destabilize much of the Middle East.
Much of the IRGC's international operations are under the control of the secret wing called the Quds Force. It reports directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, rather than through the IRGC command structure.
You may recall that President Trump ordered a U.S. air strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, the then chief of the Quds Force on January 3, 2020 near the Barghad, Iraq airport as he was about to return to Iran after visiting IRGC Quds personnel in Syria and in transit to the same with those in Iraq.
Trump also had designated the entire IRGC a terrorist organization in 2019. The Biden administration continued that designation. Prior to Trump's actions, only the Quds Force was a designated terrorist organization.
The Iran attack on Israel was in response to Israel killing the Iranian general who was commanding the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon along with six other Iranian military commanders.
Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the general who was killed in the air strike in Damascus, Syria, was acknowledged even by Iranian source to have been involved in the planning and execution of the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel.
 |
| Source: https://www.foxnews.com/world/assassinated-iranian-general-involved-planning-execution-october-7-hamas-massacre-report |
An organization affiliated with the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran revealed that Iranian General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was reportedly killed by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, played a key role in the mass murder of 1,200 people, including over 30 Americans, on October 7.
The U.S.-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) located the shocking admission and translated it into English. Iran’s Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces published on April 3 a notice of mourning and recognition for the late Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Zahedi.
Zahedi was the IRGC’s commander of its elite Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon and was killed along with six other men in Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus.
The media often refers to the attack on Zahedi to have been done at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.
That is not accurate.
The strike actually occurred at a building next to the embassy that the Iranians referred to as a consulate.
However, the fact that the general and other IRGC commanders were in the building negated any diplomatic status the building might have otherwise had under the conventions of war.
This image shows that quite well as you can see the intact Iran embassy on the left and the consulate building to the right in ruins. Note that even the fence around the embassy is still intact.
A picture of Soleimani is on the fence in front to the Iran embassy.
Talk about a precision bombing!
 |
| Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pentagon-reveals-israel-conducted-strike-iran-syria/story?id=108764420 |
Iran stated that they fired on Israel as retaliation for this attack.
Of course, all of the hostilities began with the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7.
Israel killed the IRGC general and his other commanders for their role in those attacks.
Who really started all of this?
It appears that Iran launched 331 drones and missiles at Israel carrying over 60 tons of explosives.
This included 185 kamikaze drones, 36 cruise missiles and 103 ballistic missiles.
All of the drones and cruise missiles were shot down before they entered Israel by a combination of the efforts of Israel, the United States, Great Britain and Jordan.
Seven ballistic missiles struck an air base in Israel with limited damage.
That is a success rate of about 98% which is pretty impressive.
Of course, those impressive results cost money.
It is estimated that the defense effort cost for that one night cost was about $1.4 billion.
The question now...what comes next?
Does Israel stand down in light of the fact that there was little damage done?
Some have suggested that this was nothing more than a show by Iran to save face with its populace.
However, sending over 300 drones and missiles at Israel with the expectation that Israel was going to shoot most of them down sounds a little far fetched.
It makes more senses to consider that this volley was used by Iran to test the defense capabilities of Israel looking to plan another strike in the future.
This is why it may be dangerous for Israel to stand down.
What would Israel target in Iran if it retaliates?
The nuclear sites?
The missile launch sites or manufacturing sites?
Iran's oil infrastructure that pays the bills?
The electric grid that powers the economy and those nuclear sites?
Do the Israeli's forego direct military action and initiate covert activities by Mossad in Iran that might directly target the regime? Israel has previous shown their covert capabilities to operate in Iran successfully. They have apparently killed several nuclear scientists and inserted a virus into the nuclear weapons infrastructure program.
I have learned to never underestimate Israel.
In all of this it is important to remember how we got here.
Joe Biden removed the economic sanctions that were crippling Iran when Donald Trump was President.
Oil prices were low due to expanded U.S. drilling and Iran was running out of money during the Trump years.
Biden took office and immediately released billions of dollars to Iran that has undoubtedly funded a lot of the IRGC terror activities in the region.
 |
| Source: https://twitter.com/mazemoore/status/1779251369511191034 |
Let's also remember what Joe Biden was saying about Donald Trump in 2020.
He said Trump did not know what he was doing with Iran. He said he had no strategy.
However, do you recall that Trump was getting peace deals done with a number of Middle East countries as part of what he called the "Abraham Accords" during his term in office?
Those deals were intended to further isolate Iran.
There are no peace deals being brokered right now in the Middle East.
All we see are missiles flying everywhere.
Biden also said that Trump was going to get us into a war with Iran.
 |
| Soure: https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1779241454034112570 |
 |
| Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve |
What was the emergency? Biden and the Democrats wanted to buy votes.
Biden said he would refill it at a "profit".
So far only 4% has been replenished and oil prices are going the wrong way to think about any "profit".
Meanwhile, the price of oil has risen from around $70/barrel to $87/ barrel sine January.
It goes without saying that the real losers in all of this will be the people of Iran.
They live under the thumb of an authoritarian theocratic regime.
Iran was a thriving secular society and economy in the late 1970's before the Islamic revolution put the mullahs in charge.
To provide some context, it now takes 676,500 rials ( as of April 14) to buy one dollar in Iran.
This headline was actually on Friday before the attack.
 |
| Source: https://www.jihadwatch.org/2024/04/iranian-rial-loses-30-of-its-value-overnight |
In the midst of all its other woes, the Islamic Republic of Iran has just suffered the worst economic collapse of its existence: the Iranian rial has lost 30% of its value overnight. The Iranians have for years seen their economy decline because Muslim fundamentalists, in way over their heads, rather than technocrats, have been in control of that economy. Their mismanagement, their expensive overseas commitments to proxies and allies, and the billions they have been spending on their nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, have all contributed to a colossal misallocation of resources.
In 1978, before the Islamists took over, it took only 71 rials to buy one dollar!
Let’s remember that in 1978, just before the Shah’s regime fell, the dollar was worth 71 rials. As of April 8, one dollar is worth 660,000 rials. It’s weimaresque, cauchemaresque. There has not been a decline in value like that anywhere since the Second World War. Naturally, the government of the Supreme Leader, having no clue as to how to right the economy, is doing everything it can, at a time of growing protests all over the country directed at the regime’s economic performance, to divert attention to foreign affairs, and the need to respond to “aggression”
Consider the GDP per capita in the United States, Israel and Iran according to The World Bank as of 2022.
The USA economy is 16x the size of Iran's on a per capital basis.
Israel's is almost 12x.
This is the case even though Iran has all that oil and also has the highest percentage of college graduates earning degrees from the STEM fields (44%).
Is something holding the economy and people back?
Is it possible that the best thing that could happen for the people of Iran is for Israel to somehow be responsible for regime change?
God works in mysterious ways at times.
All I really know is that trust and faith in God is about all we have to rely on looking at the situation in the Middle East right now.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteAs always, a wonderful write up. I do think, however that we need to understand our older role in Iran, the overthrow of the election of Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953. The consequences of that event have rippled mightily through our history since then. The Shah was not the most kind of benevolent leader, either. While indeed a secular economy and society, it was not without its price.
You are correct. The Shah had many of the attributes of any authoritarian leader. However, there is little doubt that Iran's people were much better off under his rule than they are currently. One of the more interesting observations I saw about the Middle East was during the Saddam Hussein years in Iraq. A number of Iraqis were asked why they did not rise up against Saddam. They almost all pointed to the experience of Iran. " If we did we could end up like Iran and it would be worse."
Delete