One of the important factors to watch in the 2024 Presidential election is the amount of support that Joe Biden can count on from younger voters.
Younger voters have reliably voted for Democrat candidates with higher percentages than the electorate at large since the early-1990's. This has been particularly true compared to older voters (age 65+).
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| Source: https://theconversation.com/us-election-two-graphs-show-how-young-voters-influence-presidential-results-as-biden-gets-poll-boost-226350 |
According to exit polls, Joe Biden won the 18-29 age vote 60%-36% (24 point margin) over Donald Trump in 2020.
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| NBC News Exit Poll 2020 General Election |
That was better than the 19 point margin that Hillary Clinton had over Trump in the 2016 election.
However, a number of polls that I am watching right now are showing that Biden is having trouble with younger voters in a 2024 rematch with Trump.
For example, an NBC News poll in January, 2024 of age 18-29 voters showed Biden was only up 8 points on Trump in the upcoming election.
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| NBC News poll, January, 2024 |
A Fox News poll in March actually showed that Trump was up 18 points on Biden among 18-29 year old voters.
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| Fox News poll, March, 2024 |
Those polls are showing marked differences. Neither may be reliable individually.
However, they do point to a trend showing a significant erosion in Biden's support with younger voters.
If Biden is in trouble with younger voters he is in big trouble in November considering the margins he had with this voting group in 2020.
Underlying that trend is a very strong dissatisfaction among 18-29 age voters with the job Joe Biden is doing as President.
An NPR/PBS/Marist poll in March found that 61% of the 18-29 age group disapproved of Biden's job performance. That was the highest among any of the age groups surveyed.
Keep in mind that this poll showed Biden up overall by +2 over Trump.
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Source: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202403291554.pdf |
What is interesting in the Trump-Biden polling for 2024 is that Trump appears to be winning younger voters over but losing older voters who have traditionally been the most reliable Republican voting bloc.
Trump is +2 with Gen Z/Millennials in the NPR/PBS poll but is -8 with Baby Boomers. Trump was +5 with age 65+ voters in 2020 in the NBC exit polling.
The interplay of the voting preferences of those two groups will be interesting to watch as the election cycle unfolds.
You can be sure that a lot of attention is going to be paid by both camps into getting their traditional voters back in the fold.
Biden's problem with younger voters appears to be rooted in a great deal of disillusionment about the economy, inflation, housing and rent prices, wars and Biden's failure to deliver on key promises such as student debt cancellation.
A USA Today article last week talked to a number of young Biden voters from 2020 who are rethinking their vote. Some say they will not vote at all considering their choices this year.
"We feel like we've been ripped off by the 'American dream' idea ‒ we've seen the financial repercussions of our parents' and grandparents' generations multiple times over, seen a lot more violence and war than we were originally told would happen, and we feel ripped off," he said. "The lack of voting is probably a little bit of a middle finger to those who passed that to us."
A recurring theme in many of those young people in the article is that they believe that they have little hope to get ahead and frustration with the older generation and their elected representatives.
"The people we elect don't speak for me," she said. "I try to be a mature person. But it's hard not to be angry when you were left with multiple situations where the older generations have literally messed up so much for us."
She said older voters refuse to change society because it works for them, even if it means dooming young people to a subsistence existence without homeownership, savings or affordable cars, groceries and gas.
The views that this young lady has on the costs of homeownership, cars, groceries and gasoline are not ill-founded.
Consider the costs of homeownership for a young person wanting to get out of the rental market.
Homebuyers need to earn 80% more today than they did in 2020 to afford a home due to rising house prices and interest rates.
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| Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-march-2024/ |
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| Source: https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends?entityIds=Index&startDate=1577768400000&endDate=1712807999999 |
The average price of a new vehicle is now almost $50,000.
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| Source: https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/ |
Let's also consider car insurance. This is particularly costly to younger drivers.
The latest CPI numbers indicate that car insurance was up 22.2% over the last 12 months.
The Wall Street Journal recently did a study and found a basket of typical grocery store items costs almost 40% more than they did in 2019.
Gasoline prices are up 38% since December, 2019.
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| Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price |
This is despite Biden emptying half of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve that was supposed to be used in a national emergency. Biden claimed that it was necessary because Russia invaded Ukraine.
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| Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve |
What was the real emergency? Biden and the Democrats wanted to buy votes.
Biden said he would refill it at a "profit".
So far only 4% has been replenished and oil prices are going the wrong way to think about any "profit".
The price of oil has risen from around $70/barrel to $87/ barrel sine January.
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| Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/wti_crude_oil_spot_price |
All of the talk about cancelling student loan debt by Biden in 2020 was also to buy votes.
How could any thinking person believe that the President could sign an executive order to cancel up to $1.7 TRILLION in student loans and have the U.S. Constitution mean anything?
Last June, in a 6-3 decision the Supreme Court ruled that anything as far-reaching and broad-based as providing student loan cancellation or forgiveness must be done by an act of Congress.
Did Joe Biden accept the decision and decide to work with Congress to attempt to persuade them to get what he wants?
No.
He called the decision "wrong" and promised that "this fight is not over".
Since then we have seen him issuing order after order attempting to nip at the edges of student loans by forgiving or cancelling the loans for certain smaller groups.
Last week Biden proved that he really is concerned about the youth vote by announcing another executive order to cancel student loan debt thereby ignoring the Supreme Court decision and any thoughts of working with Congress. This plan is directed at 30 MILLION borrowers.
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| Source: https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/04/08/biden-says-hell-move-forward-with-student-debt-relief-despite-supreme-court-decision/ |
This is the United States of America?
The Supreme Court definitively ruled that attempting to substantially modify or cancel these student loans was beyond the power of the Executive Branch to do so. That was only within the power of Congress.
The Executive Branch is supposed to enforce the law. Not ignore it or do whatever they please.
Biden obviously is going to move forward knowing that his latest plan will not be struck down by the Court until after the election.
Does he care if he deliberately misleads those young voters? He clearly could care less as long as it gets him re-elected. In any event, he will just blame Republicans for failing to agree to cancelling the student loan debt in the end anyway.
The same problem exists with immigration law.
Biden and the Democrats may not like the law but it is their job to enforce it.
What if Ronald Reagan or Donald Trump had decided they did not like the Roe v. Wade decision and just ignored it and started issuing orders on restricting abortions?
How would that have gone?
Young voters are feeling the effects of the voting decision they made in 2020.
I feel their pain.
However, I suggest they look a little beyond what is happening to them financially.
Or how they are upset Biden is not doing enough to help Palestine.
Or how unfair it is that they have to repay a loan that Joe Biden told them they would not have to.
That student loan debt might be the least of their concerns if they stop and consider the $34.6 trillion of federal debt (and counting) they are on the hook to pay in the future.
They are also going to be dealing with the compounding effects of the illegal immigration that Biden has encouraged every day for the rest of their lives unless it is reversed.
They might want to consider the importance of the rule of law.
They might want to consider whether the U.S. Constitution means anything or not.
They might want to consider what he means to live in the United States which is literally the last beacon of freedom left on earth.
They might want to consider that if they lose those freedoms they are unlikely to ever get them back.
Donald Trump and the Republicans are a threat to democracy?
The good news is that young voters are starting to ask questions and have doubts.
However, it is time they start thinking a little deeper and voting with their heads rather than their hearts.
The quote below is often attributed to Winston Churchill but fact checkers refute that.
I don't know who first said it but I don't know if the country can wait for those younger voters to reach age 40.
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