Chocaholic Alert

If you are a chocaholic you may want to stock up on your chocolate supplies.

The price of cocoa has skyrocketed lately.

Holding cocoa has actually been a much better investment than owning shares in Nvidia this year.

What is really astounding is that the price of cocoa per ton has recently surpassed the price of copper.

As of yesterday, cocoa was priced at $10,758/ton and cooper was at $9,240/ton.

Do you recall seeing stories about thieves stealing copper wire to sell it to recyclers because of its commodity value?

Source: https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/officials-call-for-action-against-ongoing-copper-thefts-in-la/3320200/

If you have a supply of chocolate you might want to put it under lock and key.

If you plan to forego chocolate for another source of caffeine you might want to also consider what has happened to the price of coffee in the commodities market so far this year.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee

What has caused the price spike in coffee? It appears that has been too much rain in Brazil and too little in Vietnam. Sounds like climate change to me. Or just ordinary weather.

What has caused the price surge in cocoa?

My research into the issue points to the principal underlying reason being three consecutive years of cocoa crop shortfalls in Africa from which 3/4 of cocoa comes from.

Credit: https://twitter.com/GBriereGiroux/status/1773281600639230286

As you might expect, the usual suspects have quickly come forth blaming "climate change" as the reason for the reduced cocoa bean crop.

That is a favorite theme for the climate alarmists for anything that happens anywhere with crop production or anything else.

To show you how crazy it has gotten, here is Sunny Hostin of "The View" blaming climate change for the solar eclipse, the New York earthquake and cicadas.

This was even too much for Whoopi Goldberg who is not on the show for her conservative views.

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1777425466942456100

However, look at the steadily increasing cocoa production for 40 years in the chart above. Climate change all of a sudden just had an effect in the last three years?

Or look at the increase in cocoa bean yields and other crops at the same time that global carbon emissions were continually increasing since 1961.

By the way, carbon emissions in the United States are the same as they were in 1991---33 years ago.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

Lower crop yields due to carbon emission caused climate change simply does not fit the climate change narrative does it?

The best explanation I have seen for the cocoa crop production shortfalls the last three years is that many of the farmers who produce cocoa in Africa are very poor. The large increase in the price of fertilizer (3x-4x increase) in 2021/2022 caused many to cutback or completely curtail the use of this nutrient for their cocoa trees. This was particularly important as many cocoa trees in Africa are older and the additional nutrient was critical for higher yields.

Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/fertilizers_index_world_bank

Although the price of fertilizer has receded it is still double what it was in 2020 when cocoa production set records.

Does anyone remember what the big driver was in the cost increases in fertilizer? It was the increase in the price of natural gas which is a major cost input in the production of fertilizer. Yes, that evil fossil fuel.

The supply shortfall, combined with the current transportation issues in the Red Sea, political instability in Ecuador (another major source of cocoa), and a short squeeze in the commodity markets all combined for the surge in price.

I would expect the cocoa market will stabilize and come back to earth at some point as it did after the price surge in the late 1970's.

If not, the name of this candy may soon also be its price.

In any event, my advice is to stock up on your chocolate now.

You cannot lose no matter what happens.

There is comfort in chocolate and we can all use a little comfort right now due to what is going on around us..