Bidenflation

The March inflation report was released yesterday showing the Consumer Price Index had increased 8.5% in the last 12 months.

We have not seen inflation at this level in over 40 years.

Prices were up at a 1.2% rate in March alone. If annualized, that translates to a 14.4% rate.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

The Biden administration is trying to spin this as Putin's fault for his invasion of Ukraine.

This chart from Zero Hedge puts that claim into perspective.

Source: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1513864692569190403

It should be no surprise that food and fuel have been major drivers of the increases in CPI.

American consumers are seeing it face to face everyday.

Energy overall is +32.0% over the last year.

Gasoline is +48.0%

Fuel oil is +70.1%.

Natural gas +21.6% and electricity +11.1%

Food at home is +10.0% and food away from home +6.9%.

Shelter in the CPI was only +5.0% due to the way in which housing costs are calculated. That calculation is only done semi-annually and totally ignores the actual cost of housing. It is based solely on a survey of what home owners say they would be willing to rent their house for as well as a survey of what renters say they are paying.

However, since that survey question is only asked twice per year it is totally inadequate to reflect actual costs in a period where prices are increasing quickly.

For example, the S&P Case-Schiller U.S. National Housing Price Index shows an increase of 19.2% in residential houses in the last year.

Apartment rents are actually 17% higher over the last year according to data collected by ApartmentList.com.

Shelter is the biggest single component in the CPI (33%) but, as you can see, these costs are being vastly undercounted in the index right now.

If we were to use a more realistic number for shelter (+18%) the CPI would be at 12.8% right now!

A lot has been made of increasing wages improving the lives of middle and lower income Americans over the last two years due to the tight labor market.

However, after adjusting for the CPI increase, real wages have not increased at all.

If the costs of shelter were correctly represented in CPI many are actually much worse off than they were two years ago.

Inflation has now become the most important problem for small businesses in a recent survey done by the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

It hardly registered as a concern over the last decade until Biden took office.

Inflation, combined with other issues like labor, regulations and taxes, have now resulted in small business owners having the most pessimistic view of future business conditions that the NFIB has ever seen since this survey of sentiment began in 1975.

The good news is that U.S. inflation is still below that of Russia, Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela.

However, the United States now has a higher inflation rate than most of the developed world.

Credit: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1513869166914191370/photo/1

All of these depressing numbers are not helping Joe Biden.

A CBS News poll that was released on Sunday gave Biden his lowest approval numbers yet in that poll---42%.

He was at 62% a year ago.

Biden is also underwater on his handling of every major issue in the survey.

You are probably wondering who the 31% are who approve of the job Biden is doing on his handling of inflation?

They we're Biden voters in 2020 (58% approve), Blacks (58% approve) and Liberals (56%). Every other major demographic group is decidedly in the disapproval camp. (Men, women, young, old, moderate, conservative, white, Hispanic, College and no-College).

What I found most interesting in looking at the internals in the poll is that Biden now has majority disapproval percentages overall in some demographic groups that have reliably voted for Democrats.

Consider these disapproval numbers for Biden in that poll.

Women               56% disapproval

Hispanics            54% disapproval

Under Age 30     57% disapproval 

That is very bad news for Biden.

It is also bad for Democrats.

Biden is not solely responsible for the inflation we are seeing. You can add the Federal Reserve, Congress, Tony Fauci, the Climate Change alarmists and China to the list ahead of Putin as well.

However, Biden is sitting in the Oval Office and people look at issues like this in simple terms.

Biden is also the most visible representation of the Democrat brand for most voters right now.

That raises the question as to how much longer the Democrats can allow Biden to be their "brand"?

Pay close attention to that question as it might tell us a lot about what to expect as we look to the 2022 midterms and the 2024 Presidential election.

Joe Biden is quickly become radioactive in political terms.