Trump 2022

Trump 2022?

Trump is not running in 2022. What gives?

Even though Trump is not running this year the former President has been endorsing a number of candidates in contested Republican primaries. 

How those candidates perform may provide a clue as to how much approval and influence Trump still has in the Republican Party looking to 2024.

I wrote a blog post last July, "Trump 2024?", in which I detailed three things that could benefit Trump's prospects looking to 2024 as well as three things that would signal problems for Trump.

One of the items on the latter list concerned the success of Trump's endorsed candidates in 2022.

This is what I wrote about that risk to Trump.

Trump's endorsements and efforts at promoting candidates in 2022 falls flat and/or the GOP generally has disappointing results in the mid-term elections.

This might apply even if the GOP gain seats in the mid-terms but the results do not meet the expectations set before the election.

Any mid-term setback will likely create a narrative that the losses were due to Trump's influence on the party and a change of direction is necessary for 2024.

I also wrote in that post that the worse things got for the country under Biden the better Trump would look.

An implosion of the country under the Democrats and Biden/Harris. Trump has many critics but hard times have a way of focusing people on what is most important. Trump's personality is the most cited reason why many did not like him. When people are in trouble they are less concerned with personality and more concerned about performance. A deteriorating situation in the country will make Trump a lot more attractive to more people than you can imagine. 

You can already see that in recent polling regarding Trump's approval ratings.

Trump's approval rating has improved by 16 points since Biden has taken office.

Source: https://twitter.com/shepmjs/status/1519066841964224512/photo/1

 

In fact, Trump's approval rating is better than every other national politician right now based on the RealClearPolitics average.

Trump has made a number of endorsements and some are what many political observers considered as bets against the odds when he made them.

A good example is the Ohio GOP Senate primary. Trump endorsed J.D. Vance (the author of Hillbilly Elegy) who was running a weak third in the race when he made the endorsement a week or so ago for the May 3 primary. 

In Pennsylvania, Trump endorsed Dr. Oz (of TV fame) in the GOP Senate primary who did not even live in the state when he entered the race. That primary is on May 17.

Ted Budd has gotten the Trump endorsement in North Carolina for the Senate seat being vacated by Richard Burr who is retiring . Budd was little known in the race before Trump endorsed him in which the early frontrunner was former Governor Pat McCrory. That primary is also on May 17.

Trump has endorsed former U.S. Senator David Perdue against incumbent Georgia Brian Kemp in the Georgia Governor's race. Trump also recruited Herschel Walker to run for the Senate seat held by Raphael Warnock. Walker is way ahead of five other GOP candidates for the nomination. Georgia goes to the polls on May 24.

Keep your eye on these races to see if there is any Trump effect. They are particularly important as all are in swing states that will be important in 2024 in both the primary and general election.

Polling before the endorsements suggested that all of these candidates would have definitely lost without Trump endorsing them.

If they win you can also expect all of them to be in Trump's corner for 2024. Such is the give and take of politics. That would give Trump an advantage in these critical states in the 2024 Presidential primary.

Does Trump still have signifiant influence?

A recent Morning Consult poll shows that Trump still garners high favorability ratings with Republicans in all these states.

How his endorsed candidates do in these early primary swing states may tell us even more about Trump's influence and prospects for 2024.

Brit Hume recently made an observation about Trump and 2024 that I think is interesting.

Many Republicans want Trump to go away because they think he will be nominated in 2024 and lose.

Democrats are afraid he will be nominated by the GOP and win.

So true.

2024 is still a long way off but 2022 is going to tell us a lot about how big a force Trump will play in that election.

Looking at the numbers right now (including the -1.4% contraction in the economy reported yesterday), I do not expect Donald Trump to be going away anytime soon.

However, keep your eyes on the races I have highlighted in May for your first hint on whether that assessment is accurate or not.