This and That---4/8/22 Edition

A few factoids to provide you with some insights. perspectives and context on the issues of the day.

The Motor Vehicle Market

82% of new cars are now selling for more than the sticker price.

Two years ago, 0.3% sold above sticker.

One of the reasons is that vehicle production is down significantly which translates into fewer vehicles in dealer inventory.

In March, U.S. auto sales were running at about a 13 million unit annualized pace.

Compare that to the 17 million annualized level of sales for other normal economic periods over the last 15-20 years.

Source: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1511306457240719364

You might think that this lower level of sales would be hurting auto dealers. However, an auto dealer I know said that profitability is better than ever due to lower interest costs to carry floor plan inventory and the higher sales prices.

It is just not new cars.

Used car prices are now up an average of 45% in the last two years.

On a related note, 50% of houses nationally have been selling above listing price recently.

Average time from listing to sale---17 days. A decade ago it was 90+ days.

Once you get your vehicle you just have to worry about how you are going to be able to afford to put gas in it.

Or if you are a business who needs truck drivers...how you can afford to pay the people to drive the trucks.

Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=walmart%20truck%20drivers&src=typed_query

Covid Vaccine Update

The FDA and CDC recently recommended that all persons age 50 and older get a 2nd booster dose.

They did this while completely bypassing the normal review process that includes an independent advisory panel that usually makes any recommendation like this.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-shuts-out-its-own-experts-in-authorizing-another-booster-covid-vaccine-pandemic-science-11649016728?mod=djemalertNEWS

What was even more remarkable about the decision was the fact that Pfizer had only requested authorization be given for the boosters for those age 65 and over.

The FDA and CDC expanded that to age 50 and over.

Has there ever been a situation where the FDA and CDC expanded the use of a drug or vaccine BEYOND what the the Pharma companies asked for?

I am wondering what the SCIENCE was to support that decision?

Nevertheless, the public seems to be looking around and judging for themselves the cost/benefit relationship of the vaccines for them individually (as it should have been all along).

14% of those who took the first mRNA shot declined the second shot.

55% of the fully vaccinated turned down the booster.

It will be interesting to see what the uptake is for a 4th shot is in that the vaccine was developed over two years ago for a virus that is now on at least its 8th variant.

The latest CDC data shows there was a slight uptick in vaccine doses after the 2nd booster recommendation but the long term trend does not look good for a lot of additional vaccine doses being administered.

It seems that most people have determined the vaccines have been not been anywhere nearly as effective as promised

Vaccine uptake has dropped off a cliff for both regular and booster doses.

All Vaccine Doses
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

Booster Doses
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

The fact that a number of Washington elites all tested positive for Covid after they attended a dinner last weekend in which everyone was fully vaccinated does not help matters. Those infected included Attorney General Merrick Garland, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Congressman Adam Schiff.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/schiff-among-14-contract-covid-washington-annual-gridiron-club-dinner/

Nor does the fact that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tested positive on Thursday despite the fact that she is double vaccinated and boosted.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-tests-positive-covid-19/

My guess is that Pelosi received a second booster in the last week or so as the data seems to show that your natural immune system is repressed for up to two weeks after getting each vaccine dose such that you are actually more vulnerable to infection during that period.

In the data from Israel you can see that infections and deaths spiked after each vaccine dose was initiated in the population.

Are the increases in deaths in Israel after each successive dose just a coincidence?

The vaccine booster seems to provide a positive benefit for about a month after the initial 2-week period of vulnerability before that benefit fades very quickly.

A recent study from Israel confirmed this recently.

Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/protection-against-infection-offered-by-fourth-covid-19-vaccine-dose-wanes-quickly-israeli-study-finds-1.5850153

Just remember it is supposed to all be about the SCIENCE.

Covid in China

On March 16 I wrote a blog predicting that we would likely soon see a major Covid outbreak in China.

I made that prediction after writing about the surge in cases (and deaths) in Hong Kong.

This is what I wrote in that blog post, "The China Virus".

Since March 1, Hong Kong has had 3,500 deaths in a city with a smaller population than New York City. That would equal 150,000 deaths in the United States---in two weeks.

The numbers in Hong Kong suggest that China could be on the brink of a massive Covid surge or could even be in the early stages of a large outbreak.

If Hong Kong is having trouble dealing with Covid, China could be facing bigger problems from Omicron. Its vaccine (Sinovac) is considered even less effective than the mRNA vaccines, it would seemingly have little natural immunity in its populace and its health care system is vastly inferior to what is found in Hong Kong.

War in Ukraine and Covid possibly sweeping China and disrupting production in that nation is not likely to be good for the U.S. economy which is already struggling with good shortages and inflation.

That prediction has come true.

China has put all of the 26 million people in the city of Shanghai under lockdown.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/05/shanghai-puts-whole-city-on-lockdown-as-covid-cases-surge

 

When China does a lockdown they really lockdown. No one can leave home even to go get groceries. Those who test positive are taken from their homes and placed in a quarantine facility.

This is not good for the global supply chain as Shanghai is the largest cargo port in the world by a considerable margin.

A lot of the cargo that passes through Shanghai is destined for the United States.

This chart shows the backlog that is beginning in the Port of Shanghai because of the lockdown.

Source: https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1511188579703144449/photo/1

This will undoubtedly lead to more supply chain issues in the United States and more inflation.

How many auto parts or other things American have become reliant on are in these containers?

Click here for short video.

Did anyone ever suggest that it was not a good idea for the United States to become overly reliant on China for imported goods and for Europe to rely on Russia for its energy?