Dancing Elephants

 Over 30 years ago I read a book by James Belasco titled "Teaching the Elephant to Dance".

The theme of the book is empowering change in your organization.

Change is hard. At times it is almost impossible to get people to change. The status quo is a comfort zone for most people. 

The title of the book is based on the fact that elephants were traditionally trained to perform at the circus by putting an iron bracelet around their leg with a chain that attached to a pole in the circus tent.

After several months of training, in which the elephant learns it cannot wander any further away from the pole than the length of the chain, the trainer removes the chain but leaves the bracelet on the leg.

The trainer then has total control over the animal. 

The elephant never wanders away. It just accepts its condition thinking it is chained to the pole.

From that point forward the elephant is not going to change or move unless the tent catches fire. The elephant needs to get a whiff of the smoke and see the fire in order to forget about the bracelet and MOVE to a different situation.

Belasco argues that doing anything less will not really inspire change in an organization if you are the leader---you need to set the tent on fire. If you don't you are never going to empower the change that is required.

I thought of "Teaching the Elephant to Dance" while I looked at some recent polling data involving young voters in both the United States and France.

Those under the age of 35 have lived almost their entire lives in a world of plenty.

They never knew much about Communism in Europe as the Iron Curtain and the Soviet were falling apart shortly after they were born.

They never lived under the threat of nuclear war.

They have seen China as a growing economic power but have heard little over the years of the oppression of its people or the protests on Tiananmen Square in 1989.

They have been led to believe that progressivism and globalism are the answers to all of our problems.

Over the last 35 years this age group in the United States and France have tended to vote for many more liberal candidates than conservatives.

For example, in 2020 63% of the 18-29 age demographic voted for Joe Biden. The 18-24 age demographic  was even more supportive of Biden---65%. To put that in context, that was 11 points higher than any other age group.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton received 58% of the 18-24 vote and 55% of the 18-29 vote.

There is little doubt that the election of Joe Biden and the Democrat majorities in the House and Senate would never have occurred without the overwhelming support of young voters.

Consider this framework and now look at the results of a new Quinnipiac poll that surveys Joe Biden's approval in handling his job as President.

Joe Biden has a 33% approval rating overall. 54% disapprove.

However, with those ages 18-34, Biden only has 21% approval.

Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04132022_upip76.pdf

Let me remind you that this is a group that Biden received over 60% of the votes a year and a half ago!

At that time these young voters supported Biden with greater percentages of the vote than any other age group. They now support him at a lower level any other age group. Their approval of Biden is 27 points below those age 65+.

This is also remarkable in that the young have historically tended to vote liberal and older voters conservative.

For example, consider this survey data from 2017 on party identification by age. The younger you were the more likely you identified as a Democrat. The older you were the more likely you were a Republican.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/319068/party-identification-in-the-united-states-by-generation/

We are seeing the exact opposite in the Biden approval ratings right now.

Another remarkable number in that poll is that Biden only has 26% approval with Hispanics. That is lower than Biden's approval with Whites.

It might be that this Q poll is an outlier and these numbers are unreliable. The Real Clear Politics average has Biden at a 40% approval. However, even if these numbers are off by 10 points this is a significant change in attitudes.

It possibly could be argued that young voters have just become turned off with the Grandfather in Chief. They have decided that Biden is too old and incompetent for the job as the reason for their lack of approval. 

Whatever the reason this is a nightmare scenario for Biden and potentially for the Democrat party.

The Hill had an article by Niall Stanage that used the same adjective I did above to describe the current environment for Democrat politicians.

Source: https://thehill.com/news/administration/3265986-the-memo-democrats-face-nightmare-scenario-biblical-disaster/

Yes, I am a little more measured in my words. It will only be biblical if it really occurs.

Have the young people, who have lived an extraordinarily sheltered life, started to smell the smoke and  are beginning to think the tent may be on fire?

What I also find interesting is that the same pattern seems to be showing up in the exit polls and polling for the runoff in the French Presidential election on April 24 between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.

The incumbent Macron is described as a centrist but he is very much a fervent supporter of European collaboration and has a globalist view of the world.

Le Pen is described as a right-wing French nationalist.

Macron crushed Le Pen in the final election round in 2017 by 66%-34%.

Macron received 66% of the 18-24 age group vote and his share was even higher with age 65+ voters five years ago.

The polls are showing a very tight race this time.

One poll last week actually showed LePen in the lead.

Source: https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1512069189661454339

This poll shows Macron with a slim lead.

A big reason for the tight race appears to be the fact that young voters are abandoning Macron.

Le Pen's support is strongest among younger voters.

Macron's support is strongest among those age 70+.

My expectation is that Macron will win. It is impossible to comprehend that the French electorate could have moved this far to the right in five years. However, there are a lot of things that have happened in the last five years that have been difficult to comprehend.

No matter how this ends the fact that the race is this close when Macron won by 32 points the last time should give the globalists pause. 

Should LePen pull off an upset and win, the shockwaves are going to be felt all over Europe and reverberate across the Atlantic.

That reverberation might be the first notice that a red tsunami could be on its way to the United States if the Q poll is anywhere close to being accurate.

Come November those GOP elephants may really be dancing.