Five Facts From June, 2024

BeeLine is rooted in facts and data. It is the foundation from which everything I write is based.

Five facts from BeeLine posts in June and in my research during the past month that I thought were particularly salient, surprising, or stupefying.

In a world in which opinions seem to be based more on feelings, emotions and prevailing narratives it might make sense to put more focus on straightforward facts, data and truths. 

Consider these facts and data and consider the context they provide to the larger issues of our world today.

A Generational Divide

It is common to see divides in attitudes, beliefs and values between older and younger generations.

This has been true since the beginning of time.

However, have we ever seen divisions this large on values that are so fundamental to the future of a society?

When you have these large divides in attitudes on fundamental values such as whether America is the best place to live or the importance of having children, the survival of the society becomes an open question.

Ronald Reagan once famously said that "freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction."

It is not the only thing that is one generation away from disappearing.

Job Growth in Context

Joe Biden likes to talk about the job growth the U.S. has seen during his administration.

Of course, most of the jobs were "bounce back" jobs that merely came back after being lost during the Covid shutdown.

What he also does not mention is who is getting the new net growth jobs.

All of the job growth in recent years has gone to foreign born workers.

It is true that some of this is due to the fact that native-born boomers are aging out of the workforce.

However, their children and grandchildren are not taking those jobs.

In the last four years, the number of foreign born workers has increased by approximately 4 million workers while the number of native born workers has been flat. 

Over the last two years, the vast majority of these foreign born workers have been illegal immigrants.

A growing economy has masked the potential societal issues with this trend.

However, a slowing economy and a future recession will be a different story.

We may not see a recession next month or even within the next year. However, we will see one in the foreseeable future. 

We will then see the full force of the compounding effects of illegal immigration when millions who want to work can't find a job--both natives and immigrants--legal and illegal.

Illegal Immigration Is A Huge Issue For Voters 

Illegal Immigration is a huge issue for voters in 2024.

How do I know that?

This poll speaks volumes.

This is the second poll in the last several months that showed similar results.

62% of all voters state that they support a federal policy to deport all undocumented immigrants.

A majority of all Hispanic voters support it as well.

It is surprising that such a significant majority of registered voters are in agreement on what would be considered as about as hard line position as you could get on this issue.

I think it shows the depth of frustration and concern that voters have about the border invasion under Biden.

I spoke with a Trump supporter recently who told me he wished that Trump would soften his views about deporting illegals. He said he thought it would not play with swing voters.

I asked him if he was aware of this polling. He was not. This poll shows that even Moderate and Independent voters support deportation by 60% or more.

However, the main reason that Trump should not soften his views is that if he is elected with this as his position it gives him political power to implement strong measures on illegal immigration.

Trump may not be able to do everything he wants but if you run on an issue and win it gives legitimacy to implementing that policy or something close. This is the political capital that comes from the votes of the people.

Israel/Palestine Peace?

Anyone who believes that there will be peace between Israel and Palestine anytime soon might want to take a look at this recent poll of Palestinians.

Even though Gaza has been decimated by Israel in the war with Hamas, by a margin of 67%-24%, Palestinians still believe that Hamas will be victorious in the war.

The breakdown of the numbers do show that Palestinians living in Gaza are much more in touch with reality than those in the West Bank. Those living in Gaza only believe that Hamas will be victorious by a 48%-25% margin. The number of Gazan's who believe Hamas will win in the end has also declined over the last three months.

Those living in the West Bank, and more isolated from the war, are much more optimistic for Hamas.

More troubling for the future of a peaceful solution is the fact that by large measures the Palestinians believe the only way for them to reach their goals is through armed struggle.

It 

It does not provide much hope for any negotiated peaceful, two-state solution for stability between Israel and the Palestinians.

Unfortunately, it appears the only way to achieve peace is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

Any desire to wage war among the Palestinian people has to be totally wiped away by totally breaking their will.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

It is harsh. It is heartbreaking. However, it appears to be the only way to restore humanity in a place where it clearly has been lost.

Trump/Biden Debate 

Polling is starting to come in after the Trump/Biden debate last week.

CBS News had a poll that asked the question as to who won the debate.

Forget about the Democrats who thought Biden won by a 39%-16% margin.

Or the Republicans who declared Trump the winner by 93%-1%.

Independents favored Trump 61%-8%!

I don't believe I have ever seen a more lopsided result from Independent voters on any issue or opinion.

There is a lot of contradictory reporting right now on whether Biden will stay in the race.

Some are adamant he will drop out of the race.

Others are reporting that his family has urged him to stay the course.

There is only one logical answer but logic will not necessarily drive this decision.

There are too many close to Biden who will lose a lot if he is no longer in office.

The only thing that is certain is that time is running short to make a switch.

They cannot "wait and see" very long to see if the polls improve.

Several key states have strict rules and deadlines on whether a candidate can be replaced on the ballot once certified. These include critical swing states such as Wisconsin and Nevada.

There are also legal restrictions on transferring the campaign funds raised for the Biden/Harris campaign to another candidate other than Kamala Harris.

Every day a decision is delayed introduces more problems if Biden would step aside at this late date.

No Way To Spin It

I have watched a lot of debates in my time.

It is customary to have a spin room for comments after the debate so that the supporters of the candidate can spin the narrative of how great their guy or gal was on the stage.

They never fail in spinning something good about the debate performance.

That was not possible last night with Joe Biden.

There was no way to spin it into a positive.

In fact, it was hard to find anyone who was even willing to be in that spin room.

There was no way to spin it.

Even the headlines in the anti-Trump Drudge Report left no doubt.

Biden put on a 90 minute show of why he has no business being President or running for another term.

The Democrat establishment is in full meltdown mode after the debate.

Trump was far from perfect in his performance.

Trump could have benefited from participating in some debates during the primary season.

He missed several opportunities to make points in the debate.

I thought his closing was particularly weak.

However, none of that is going to be remembered due to Biden's disastrous performance.

I wrote this in my pre-debate preview earlier this week.

Biden has a very low bar to clear in this debate due to those expectations.

However, it is hard to imagine anyone who is less prepared to be standing behind a podium for an hour and a half devoid of a teleprompter and note cards than Joe Biden.

Any public speaking appearance he has done in the last three years have been heavily scripted and he has rarely been placed in a situation where he has had to make extemporaneous remarks.

Over most of the past four years Biden has almost never been put in a position where he has had to think on his feet and react to unscripted questions or scrutiny.

He has been protected by his staff to the extent he often tells reporters "they will not allow me to answer questions" pointing to the staff.

Frank Luntz is known for putting together focus groups of undecided voters for debates like this got a comment from one of the participants that sums up the night pretty well.

They suggested how very low that bar was for Biden.

Biden just needed to show up and look alive.

He could not even do that.

What is even more telling in all of this is the following.

Biden picked CNN to host the debate.

He picked the moderators.

He chose the format.

He chose the date.

He spent the last week totally out of public view working exclusively on debate prep at Camp David.

If this is what you get from Biden with all of that planning and preparation what do you get from him when a real national emergency emerges that requires sharp thinking and reasoned decisions in a short time period? 

I would expect that we will see increasing calls from prominent Democrats and media pundits for Biden to   step aside for 2024 in the coming days.

We may even see some calls for invocation of the 25th Amendment for removal of Biden due to Presidential disability.

It will not be easy for Biden to recover from this.

All of this also makes the prediction I made in January, 2023 that I thought there was only a 1% chance that both Biden and Trump would be on the November, 2024 ballot pretty good.

I also believed that there was a greater chance that Biden would not be on the ticket than Trump.

That bet has not looked very good as the 2024 election date got closer and closer.

However, I did not back away from that prediction.

I remained convinced that at some point the Democrats would be forced to push Biden out of the race due to poor polling numbers and/or his mumbling, bumbling performance as President.

The Democrats simply cannot afford to let Biden take the entire party down in 2024.

My prediction looks a lot better right now than it ever did.

We are now less than  90 days away from when early voting will start in some states and less than 130 days until Election Day.

There are now only 52 days until the Democrat convention.

Democrats who have stated for months that Trump is a threat to democracy look like they may have to nominate a candidate without ever garnering one vote in the primaries.

The candidate will be chosen by about 4,000 Democrat party delegates who are currently pledged to support Biden.

Why is this happening? 

It is because Democrats chose to protect Joe Biden and ignore his infirmities and effectively prohibit anyone from challenging him during the primary process.

The Democrats have a. real mess on their hands.

However, it is all self-inflicted.

Sir Walter Scott's words were never more apt than today.

A tangled web.

That is the only way to describe what Biden, his allies and †he Democrat party have foisted on the American people.

There is no other way to spin it.

A Debate For The Aged

 Tomorrow night's Presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden could go down as a "Debate For The Ages".

It involves what is effectively two incumbents squaring off in a debate that is being held months earlier than usual. 

I would expect there would be a large tv audience as this is a rare opportunity to see both candidates on the same stage interacting with each other.

This debate is also unusual in that even though it is a CNN event with their moderators, it will be televised on a number of tv networks beyond CNN as it is being made available as a public service by the network. 

As a result, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and NewsNation are all planning to air the CNN debate on their networks.

Variety reports that the financial incentive for the networks picking up the CNN feed involves the ability to sell two planned three-and-a-half minute commercial breaks with their own ads, not to mention their own pre- and post-event programming,

This much tv coverage on that many networks should give the debate a lot of viewer interest.

That is particularly important for both sides as they attempt to persuade undecided voters who are also likely to be those who don't follow politics as closely as committed Democrats and Republicans. The debate is a unique opportunity to capture their interest as few other events will during the campaign.

Debates usually take place no earlier than late September. Most are scheduled for October.

This debate is taking place before either candidate has even been officially nominated.

It also might very well be the sole debate between Biden and Trump (more on that below).

However, it will most likely be remembered as "A Debate For The Aged" as it involves the two oldest candidates to ever be on the Presidential ballot.

Trump just turned 78 this month and Biden will be 82 in November.

Credit: https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/biden-trump-debate-cnn-tv-news-scramble-1236044525/

It also involves two candidates neither of which have appeared on a debate stage for nearly four years.

Neither candidate participated in primary debates. Biden did not because he was an incumbent that was not seriously challenged by any Democrat. Trump simply refused to debate since he had a commanding lead in the polls from the beginning. He saw no upside in debating. 

This is highly unusual in the modern era where candidates must endure multiple debates while running for their party's nomination.

For example, in 2016, Donald Trump participated in 12 primary debates.

Joe Biden took part in 11 primary debates in 2020 despite the schedule being curtailed by Covid.

I have to believe that neither candidate is going to be at the top of their game due to the fact that they have not been in the arena and are not battle tested recently.

This might pose more of a problem for Trump in that expectations are going to be very low for Biden entering the debate due to his frequent stumbles and mumbles in public appearances.

Biden has a very low bar to clear in this debate due to those expectations.

However, it is hard to imagine anyone who is less prepared to be standing behind a podium for an hour and a half devoid of a teleprompter and note cards than Joe Biden.

Any public speaking appearance he has done in the last three years have been heavily scripted and he has rarely been placed in a situation where he has had to make extemporaneous remarks.

Over most of the past four years Biden has almost never been put in a position where he has had to think on his feet and react to unscripted questions or scrutiny.

He has been protected by his staff to the extent he often tells reporters "they will not allow me to answer questions" pointing to the staff.

He is the President of the United States!. He can't answer a question if he wants to? Who is really in charge?

Of course, I am assuming that the CNN moderators are going to play in straight and not slant the tone or the questions to the benefit of Biden. That is a distainct possibility considering the known bias that both Jake Tapper and Dana Bash have had for Trump in the past.

I would hope that CNN has not given the questions to Biden's team in advance.

At one time it would have been unthinkable for a "journalist" to do anything like that.

However, we know that CNN"s Donna Brazille fed debate questions to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donna-brazile-wikileaks-fallout-230553

Considering the animus that those at CNN have for Trump it is a legitimate concern.

Although Trump has not done any debates recently, he is constantly doing rallies and long media interviews that are largely unscripted. He can talk at length on a number of issues without notes.

Will Biden be able to rise to the occasion with so much at stake?

His handlers clearly want him to appear vigorous and in command of the issues.

Trump's handlers have to be hoping that he stays disciplined in his message and measured in his comportment during the night. 

When this debate was scheduled I surmised that the early date before the convention made me believe that the debate is a test of Biden's abilities.

This is what I wrote about the debate shortly after it was first proposed.

Biden was only willing to debate in June (before the conventions) and in early September (two months before Election Day).

These dates tell me that the Biden team did not want any debate close to the election from which there could be no recovery from a bad debate performance.

The June debate also suggests that a bad performance by Biden could result in calls to have him step aside and be replaced at the Democratic convention in August

What other reason could there be to have a debate beforer the conventions and more than four months before the election?

The September debate also provides an exit ramp in that pulling the plug on Biden at that early date  provides time to replace him before ballots are printed and early voting begins.

Early voting begins as early as September 20 in several states. 

In fact, it would not surprise me that Democrat party insiders were already working to persuade Biden to step aside and he resisted. The early dates of the debates might have been established as a compromise for Biden to prove to the insiders that he could hold his own against Trump. 

Biden might have told them that if he couldn't handle the debates, he would step aside and the party could insert their favored candidate.

However, if he proved he could go toe to toe with Trump, they would shut up and leave him alone.

This debate may determine whether Biden stays on the ballot this year.

In any event, even though a second debate has been proposed for early September, I don't think we will see Trump and Biden on the same debate stage again.

I am of the belief that there will likely only be one "Debate For The Aged".

Why do I say that?

Let's consider several possibilities.

1. Biden does very poorly at the debate. This leads to calls by Democrats for him to be replaced. 

    He is replaced by another candidate (Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton etc).

    There is no second debate with Trump and Biden.

2. Biden gives a passable debate performance and there are no calls to replace him on the ballot.

    If Biden performs at any level that is acceptable his team will simply not want to risk a second debate.

    There is no second debate with Trump and Biden.

3. Biden gives a marginal debate performance that is not enough to force him out of the race.

    However, Trump is the clear winner in the debate.

    There is no second debate as Trump has no motivation to do another debate if he leads in the polls. 

The odds suggest that one of these scenarios comes true.

Pay close attention on Thursday night because this might be both a debate for the aged and the ages at the same time.

This is not a debate you want to watch at party or in a bar. 

This is a debate that you want to watch with close attention as you will likely not have a second chance at seeing these two together on the same stage again.

And what comes from it may be quite consequential in determining the arc of this Presidential race and America's future.

Perception Is Reality

I review at a lot of polling data each week.

It is important to understand that polls only measure the perceptions of voters.

I used to spend a great deal of time in Washington, D.C. lobbying on tax issues.

A common theme in that city is that "perception is reality".

As a result, the reality of a situation or issue does not matter to most politicians.

The only thing that matters is how the issue is perceived by voters.

Of course, perceptions are formed by a lot of factors beyond reality.

This is one of the reasons that the media narrative becomes so important in shaping the perceptions and views of voters.

This is something that Donald Trump had to battle his entire term.

"He was elected due to Russian collusion."

"The fine people on both sides in Charlottesville."

"Trump said to drink or inject bleach to combat Covid".

It doesn't matter if none of these narratives were true. 

Most people rely on headlines or short sound bites that were created to form a narrative. Few understand and know the true reality of the situation.

Biden and the Democrats are battling voter perceptions themselves in 2024.

They saw inflation moderating, low unemployment and a surging stock market and decided earlier this year to run on "Bidenomics".

The Biden administration  and the mainstream media were never able to understand why voters were not buying the message.

The reality is that most voters are not feeling good about the economy, inflation or their personal financial situation.

The rate of inflation has moderated but almost all prices are up at least 20%+ under Biden in a little over three years. Voters were accustomed to it taking a decade to see that level of price increases in the economy.

Compare changes in the CPI index between Trump and Biden.

That small moderation recently does not change the perception of voters of what they have experienced the last three years.

Nominal wages are up under Biden but real weekly earnings have not been able to keep up with inflation as this Federal Reserve chart demonstrates.

This is why in a recent Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll by a margin of 51%-32% voters stated that their personal financial situation was better off under the Trump administration than the Biden administration.

Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1783336309211177467/photo/3

However, perceptions among voters differ greatly on this question depending on whether someone identifies as a Democrat, a Republican or Independent.

This should not be the case if the facts and the reality of someone's personal situation was controlling.

For example, among Democrats, 63% said their personal financial situation has been better under Biden and only 15% said it was better with Trump.

However, among Republicans, only 4% said they were better off under Biden and 88% said they were better off with Trump.

For Independents, 50% said they were better off with Trump and 23% were better off with Biden. That is undoubtedly much closer to reality than with the other groups.

Underlying bias and the perception that voters have of the candidates heavily influences voter opinions on issues.

Perception is reality. 

All of that is even more evident when you look at a recent poll question which asked voters whether they supported a recent proposal by Donald Trump to exempt tips received as taxable income.

When Donald Trump's name is not attached to the proposal, Democrats favor not txsing tips by a 40 point margin according to a recent Fox News poll.

Support drops to a -10 point margin if voters are told that it is a Trump proposal.

Republicans favor not taxing tips by a 46 point margin (similar to the 40 point favorability of Democrats on the issue).

However, with Trump's name attached, support increases to a 71 point margin.

Perception is reality.

You see the same thing in recent polling about voter support for whether transgender girls (males) should be banned from participating in K-12 girls' sports.

Overall, 51% of Americans in the poll support the ban. Only 22% oppose it. The rest have no opinion.

However, note that only 34% of 18-34 year old females state that they would be in favor of such a policy.

These young women are huge outliers on the issue even compared to young males of the same age.

Credit: https://twitter.com/data_depot/status/1800284060042055902

This is despite the fact that they are the closest in age to those school age kids and it would be other girls who would be disadvantaged by allowing post-puberty males to compete with girls.

Do these young women really believe that allowing biological males to compete against young girls is fair or has this become their view in order to be perceived as a woke  progressive feminist?

Perception is reality.

One of the most interesting examples of perception completely obliterating reality is in a recent poll I saw that surveyed Palestinians.

Two of the questions posed were on whether Hamas or Israel would win the war and what was the best way going forward in achieving Palestinian goals and becoming an independent state.

On the question of who was winning the war, by a 67% to 24% margin, Palestinians overall believed that Hamas would be victorious. Of note, that is higher than it was three months ago.

This is despite the utter devastation and ruin the war has brought to Gaza.

Source: https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1801573286582587586

 

The breakdown of the numbers do show that Palestinians living in Gaza are much more in touch with reality than those in the West Bank. Those living in Gaza only believe that Hamas will be victorious by a 48%-25% margin. The number of Gaza's who believe Hamas will win in the end has also declined over the last three months.

Those living in the West Bank, and more isolated from the war, are much more optimistic for Hamas.

More troubling for the future of a peaceful solution is the fact that by large measures the Palestinians believe the only way for them to reach their goals is through armed struggle.

Source: https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1801573286582587586

It does not provide much hope for any negotiated peaceful, two-state solution for stability between Israel and the Palestinians.

Seeing this confirms what I wrote last December as the war was in its early stages as to how this would likely play out.

It is going to be a hard path forward for Israel. The death, damage and destruction that it has inflicted on Gaza and the Palestinians will not be easily forgotten. It promises another generation of greater hatred for Israel.

The only way around this is for Israel to accept nothing less than for the unconditional surrender of Hamas.

There can be no negotiated peace.

The only answer is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

Leaders in those times saw that the only way to move forward in peace after so much death and destruction was unconditional surrender. The enemy had to be defeated and there had to be complete demoralization and submission by the society that supported the enemy leaders if there was to be hope for a future living together peacefully.

This is what occurred with the South in the Civil War and Germany and Japan after World War II.

The will to wage war was completely extinguished in the citizenry.

The same will be necessary with Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel will be under immense pressure in the coming days to negotiate peace with Hamas short of seeking its unconditional surrender.

Over the last several generations we have become accustomed to negotiated peace settlements to end wars. We saw it in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wars ended with no clear winners and losers.

Israel has pushed back and defended itself each time it has been attacked during the 75 years of its existence but it never sought to completely vanquish its enemies. 

We are in a different time. I hope and trust that Israel understands this.

Perception is reality.

At times the only way forward is to obliterate all perceptions so that only reality remains.

Unfortunately, these are the times we live in. 

Climate Justice?

A favorite theme of those in favor of open borders is that "migrant justice is climate justice" or immigration justice=environmental justice".

This excerpt from a blog post arguing that immigration justice and climate justice are inextricably linked is a typical example of how progressive leftists attempt to paint a narrative that an open border is virtuous.

Activists fighting for immigration justice and climate justice are beginning to recognize that their work is bound to one another, and we must all recognize that when immigration justice or climate justice is pushed forward, the other has a foundation to build on. Together they can catalyze a movement that pushes for a safe, fair, sustainable, and inclusive environment for all. 

Would it surprise you to learn that those are the words of a graduate of UC Berkeley with degrees in Environmental Economics & Policy, and Conservation & Resource Studies? Who would have thought  someone would have learned this studying at Berkeley?

Source: https://www.ecowatch.com/1-000-youth-take-to-the-streets-demanding-climate-justice-1882118334.html

Arguing that "immigration justice is climate justice" or that open borders in the United States contributes to a safe, sustainable environment might look good on a banner or make a cool sound bite during a street protest.

However, actual facts and reality leave no doubt that open borders do nothing insofar as solving or affecting climate change.

In addition, allowing millions of illegal immigrants into the United States is the last thing one would support if you were concerned about sustainability.

I continue to be surprised that Republicans don't make this point about illegal immigration and its adverse effects on sustainability in that it is such an important issue with Democrats and younger voters.

The immigration laws were established to provide order for our society. The laws were considered necessary to provide for the entrance of an established number of immigrants annually that could be assimilated without disrupting and degrading the experience of U.S. citizens and others who are rightfully here. In sum, the laws were enacted to foster sustainability for society.

Laws that have been completely ignored by the Biden administration for over three years.

Adding too many immigrants in a short period of time puts too much strain on our resources. It puts unnecessary strain on everything in our society---our water, our sewer systems, our roads, the electric grid, our infrastructure and our environment. It contributes to congestion and urban sprawl.

Add to this what it does to increase the financial strain on our schools and our health system and cost pressure on rents and housing costs, not to mention our law enforcement and justice system.

Illegal immigration is the worst thing you could be in favor of if you are concerned about sustainability in our society.

The argument that immigration justice is climate justice is also ludicrous on its face.

Open border advocates want us to believe that having millions of people migrating from countries such as Mexico, Venezuela, El Salvador, Honduras and Haiti to the United States is going to help fight climate change and improve the global environment?

How does one come to that conclusion if they believe that human-induced carbon emissions are responsible for climate change?

If sustainability and the environment are primary goals, there should be no migration from low carbon emission countries to high carbon emission countries.

That should be obvious on its face.

Migrating people from low carbon to high carbon emission countries will increase overall global carbon emissions. It is an inescapable fact.

For example, the per capita carbon footprint in the United States is over four times that of Mexico and three times that of Venezuela. It is over 13 times that of El Salvador, 15 times that of Honduras and 53 times that of Haiti.

Why is that? There are few factories and other large productive facilities in those countries. There are limited conveniences like air conditioning. Homes and apartments are smaller. There are fewer vehicles per capita. Many need to walk to work or shop.

Why do migrants want to immigrate to the United States?

They are in search of a better life and prosperity.

Who can fault them for wanting to better themselves?

However, 99% of the population of the world would improve their lot in life by migrating to the United States.

Do we take them all? 

How is that sustainable?

That prosperity is fueled by energy—most of which is carbon-based,. a reality that will continue for some time into the future unless nuclear, solar or another source proves gains acceptance and proves to be affordable.

As I have written before, there is no such thing as a rich, low energy country.

Energy makes the world economy go. We need it for anything we want to do. It needs to be available and it needs to be affordable. The economy does not work without energy. The consumer cannot spend on other things in the economy if they are spending excessive amounts on energy. If the consumer doesn't spend, the economy does not grow. If the economy does not grow, more and more people go without jobs.

When muscle power was the prime energy source in the world we could produce very little. Firewood and domesticated animals improved our ability to produce. However, the introduction of energy sources like coal, oil and gas allowed us to greatly leverage our productive capacity. 

It is not a coincidence that the industrial revolution coincided with the introduction of so-called fossil fuels beginning with coal and moving on to oil and gas and the development of machines that were powered by these energy sources.

The argument is now being made that all of the migrants of the world who want to come to the United States must be allowed in because their home countries are becoming uninhabitable due to climate change.

Let's take a look at how that statement squares with real data.

Here is a chart that shows human deaths in Latin American and the Caribbean from so-called "climate-change disasters" between 1990 to 2023.

It clearly shows that the last ten years has seen far less deaths from climate change disasters in that ares of the world than in the previous twenty years.

Number of human deaths due to climate change-related disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1990 to 2023
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1409757/number-of-human-deaths-due-to-climate-change-related-disasters-latin-america/

Where exactly is the climate crisis that is forcing people to flee their home countries to migrate to the United States?

An alternative argument is made that people are being forced to migrate due to the failures in the agricultural sector due to crop failures caused by extreme weather. Of course, agriculture supports many people in these countries.

However, in almost all Latin and Caribbean countries, crop production is higher (most recent data is 2021) than it was when compared to a base period of 2004-2006. In the chart below, 100 represents the crop index level in the base period. 

Source: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/crop_production_index/Latin-Am/

Haiti is an obvious exception, with crop production only amounting to about 77% of what it was in 2004-2006. However, this is largely a function of the political situation in the country. The same can be said to be true in socialist Venezuela.

Look no further than comparing the Dominican Republic and Haiti in the data above. These countries share the same island in the Caribbean. Crop production in the Dominican Republic is 20% higher than it was in the base period while Haiti is down almost 25%. Climate change is ravaging one end of the island but not the other?

For context, the crop production index for the United States in this data set is 100.8 and in Canada it is 82.8. The majority of the Latin American countries have actually seen crop production increases at levels higher than in the United States but they are being ravaged by climate change?. Almost all are better than Canada. Are we to consider Canadians as climate migrants as well?

Beyond all of this, open border advocates argue that allowing illegal migration in to the United States is still beneficial because the average migrant only utilizes about 80% of the resources and carbon emissions of U.S. citizens.

That might be true but it is still multiples more than these individuals would use in their home countries. 

One study estimated that a migrant in the United States produces on average four times the amount of carbon emission they would in their home country. 

If one is concerned about carbon emissions impacting the climate the last thing anyone should be in favor of us is taking in more illegals immigrants who will immediately expand their carbon footprint many times beyond what it would be in their home countries.

Do not be fooled by a false narrative.

Migrant justice is not climate justice.

There is also nothing sustainable about taking in 10+ million illegal immigrants over a three year period and claiming that it is beneficial for our environment or that of the world at large.

The assertion within that narrative is not supported by facts or logic.

Climate justice?

What about justice for the American citizens and legal immigrants who play by the rules and have to endure the chaos, crime and costs of the compounding effects of illegal immigration?

How about some justice for them?

For additional context read my previous blog post on "The Compounding Effects of Illegal Immigration".

Polling Potpourri----June 19, 2024 Edition

A big question in the wake of Donald Trump's conviction in the New York criminal trial last month was how this would play out in the polls and in the election in November.

This is what I wrote right after the verdict was rendered and the Democrats and mainstream media started referring to Trump as "a convicted felon".

It remains to be seen how the verdict will play into the decision process of the important swing voters.

Do they recoil at the thought of a "convicted felon" as President?

Or do they see what has happened to Trump to be the real threat to democracy and an attempt to undermine the Constitution?

Polling since the trial seems to indicate that the verdict in the New York court has had no discernible effect on the arc of the Presidential race.

A month ago, on May 19, Trump had a 1.1% advantage in the RealClearPolitics.com poll average.

Trump's advantage today is at +0.8%.

Comparing the numbers from before and after the verdict tells the same story in  looking at specific polling firms.

NPR/PBS/Marist had Biden +2 in mid-May.  Its most recent poll has the race tied.

Yahoo News had the race tied in mid-May. It now has Biden +2.

Reuters/Ipsos had the race tied in mid-May. It now has Trump +2.

Any changes appear to be just noise in the numbers rather than any fundamental shifts in the views of the electorate involving Donald Trump.

Trump's margin of +0.8% shows this is a very tight race right now.

However, it is also important to put that number in context with the 2016 and 2020 elections which also were exceedingly tight when the final results were in.

On the same date in 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 5.8 pants.

In 2020, Trump trailed Joe Biden in June by 8.8 points.

Trump's narrow margin in the popular vote polling average suggests that Trump is in a much better place in the all important electoral college vote right now than he was in 2016 or 2020.

In fact, the RealClearPolitics.com poll average shows Trump leading in every key battleground state right now.

Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-biden

More significantly, polls in several states that are not considered Battleground states are starting to look competitive for Trump.

Consider Virginia, which Biden won by 10 points in 2020. A recent poll by Fox News shows Trump and Biden tied in Virginia after the New York verdict.

In Minnesota, Trump's internal pollster shows that Trump is actually leading Biden in that state.

Biden won Minnesota by 7 points in 2020.

A poll in Iowa by a highly respected pollster in that state has Trump +18.

Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020.

What do I find interesting in those three state polls?

Notice that in each of them there has been about a 10 point swing toward Trump between the 2020 popular vote in each state and current polling.

What does it take to get a 10 point margin swing in an election?

The most direct way to get that result is to have 5% of voters who supported a candidate switch their vote.

That takes 5% away from one candidate and adds 5% to other candidate amounting to a 10% total margin shift. 

Is it unreasonable to believe that 1 out of 20 of those who voted for Biden last time are willing to shift their vote to Trump based on the results of the last 3 and 1/2 years?

What groups do the polls show that Biden is most vulnerable in losing voters who supported him the last time?

Biden is showing weakness in a number of groups that have reliably voted Democrat for along time.

Young voters, Blacks, Women and Hispanics are seeing shifts in the polls away from Biden.

One of the more interesting takes I have seen on these shifts came from CNN data guru Harry Enten who recently provided an analysis comparing polling involving Black voters at this time in 2020 compared to today.

These are the numbers with Black voters that astounded the CNN data guru.

Biden has lost 16 points while Trump has picked up 14 points among Black voters overall according to Enten.

Link: https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1802704780025794662

Enten looked deeper into the data to see where the erosion of Biden's support was coming from within the African American community.

It is most pronounced among young voters under the age of 50.

Biden had an 80 point margin over Trump with Black voters under age 50 in 2020.  Recent polling shows it to be down to just 37 points among these younger voters today. 

That can only be described as a seismic shift in support.

Will these voters come back to the Democrats by November?

If not, it is hard to see how Joe Biden can win.

It is polling like this that raises the question in my mind as to whether the Democrats can afford to keep Biden on the ticket.

Link: https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1802704780025794662

I also continue to be astounded by the polling on the question of whether voters support a policy that would have the U.S. government start a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally.

62% of all registered voters in a CBS poll taken between June 5-7 say they are favor of deporting all undocumented immigrants.

That includes 53% support with HISPANICS and 38% among self-identified Democrats.

There is no issue that draws a sharper contrast in policy views between Trump and Biden it is what the United States should be.doing about illegal immigration.

It is surprising that such a significant majority of registered voters are in agreement on what would be considered as about as a hard line position as you could get on this issue.

I think it shows the depth of frustration and concern that voters have about the border invasion under Biden.

If voters continue to hold the views reflected in this poll, Donald Trump is in a very strong position on this issue and in the election. Immigration continues to be a top 3 issue for many voters.

The next major item on the election schedule that could impact the race is the Trump-Biden debate scheduled for June 27.

After that, the sentencing of Trump scheduled for July 11 (four days before the start of the GOP convention) will draw a lot of voter attention.

Will the Judge in that case be so bold as to order Trump incarcerated, placed under house arrest or put under strict probationary rules that limit his travel while he is running for President of the United States?

How will that play with the American voters?

There are plenty of twists and turns ahead on the road to November.

Polls make for good conversation and blog content but only one poll counts in the end---that one is still more than four months away.

Stay tuned and stay in touch through BeeLine.

The Compounding Effects of Illegal Immigration

The immigration laws were established to provide order for our society. The laws were considered necessary to provide for the entrance of an established number of immigrants annually that could be assimilated without disrupting and degrading the experience of U.S. citizens and others who are rightfully here.

The compounding effects of uncontrolled immigration is the reason that the immigration laws were put on the books in the first place.

When the law is ignored or not enforced, chaos is sure to follow due to the compounding effects of large numbers of people the society is not prepared for.

Adding too many immigrants, too quickly,  puts added pressure on the social order if those immigrant numbers outpace the ability to integrate and assimilate them into the general population.

Too many immigrants puts too much strain on our resources. It puts unnecessary strain on everything in our society---our water, our sewer systems, our roads, the electric grid, our infrastructure and our environment. It contributes to congestion and urban sprawl.

Add to this what it does to increase the financial strain on our schools and our health system and cost pressure on rents and housing costs, not to mention our law enforcement and justice system.

What happens when AI and technology displaces many of the jobs that low-skilled immigrants are likely to hold? Are we importing a gigantic permanent underclass that will have to be supported by welfare and tax dollars for years and years to come?

Is this the underlying reason that Democrats have embraced open borders? Importing large number of people who will be dependent on the government for support provides future votes to support the Democrat party agenda.

Of course, we are seeing massive sums of tax dollars being used right now at the federal, state and local levels to house, feed and care for the masses of illegal immigrants who the Biden administration has allowed to cross the border.

A recent study estimated the federal and state costs for the transportation and care of illegal immigrants to be over $151 billion this year.

At the border, services provided to illegals include food, clothing, transport to airports or bus stations, medical care, legal aid, translation assistance and assistance with booking travel.

Although illegals are generally not eligible for welfare benefits, they can access emergency medical treatment under Medicaid and are eligible for various emergency food programs once they are in the country.

Of course, every dollar spent on these illegals is a dollar less that can be spent on U.S. citizens.

$151 billion is a lot of money.

For context, that is more money than was spent in 2023 on Social Security disability payments ($150 billion), veteran's programs ($148 billion) or the entire food stamp program ($135 billion). 

It is more money than is expected to be spent on all new highway and street construction in the United States this year ($132 billion) from all government sources.

The amount spent on illegals this year is more than the total amount that will be  spent on Pell Grants to assist lower and middle income students to attend college ($25 billion) AND all new student loans provided  in 2023 ($114 billion).

It is incredible what the United States could do with $!51+ billion if it was not spending it on illegal immigrants.

None of the above takes account of the enormous costs being borne by sanctuary cities and others localities for illegal immigrants.

In New York City alone, the city projects it will spend $12 billion between 2022 and 2025 to provide shelter, food and service to illegal immigrants.

A substantial portion of this sum is being spent to house illegals in hotels in New York City.

A recent article in the Federalist reported that 20% of all hotel rooms in New York City are currently being used to house illegal immigrants,

That is about 16,000 hotel rooms.

121 hotels in the city are being used exclusively to house illegals.

If you take 20% of hotel capacity off line in a city it will undoubtedly have an effect on prices as supply and demand is altered.

New York City has always been an expensive city in which to find lodging.

I used to travel to the Big Apple a great deal on business and know that first hand.

Although most of the migrants are being housed in economy or mid-tier hotels, when those options are taken off the market business travelers and tourists are forced to pay more. They either have to pay more at what were once "affordable" hotels or are forced to move up to more expensive options.

To give you an idea of what current prices are in New York City per night for a hotel room here are a few examples (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday nights to reflect both mid-week and weekend rates) according to Hotels.com.

I have stayed at all of these hotels at one time or the other over the years.

Mid-tier hotels near LaGaurdia and JFK airports are also getting about $300 per night.

The average price of a hotel room in the city is reported to be $301 per night.

Of course, this also does not include the substantial taxes that are levied on hotel rooms in New York City. Taxes are going to increase the per night rate by about 20% (see total cost above).

I once was in New York City for a night and then traveled to Ashland, Kentucky the next day for another business meeting. The taxes on my hotel in Manhattan alone were more than my hotel rate in Kentucky.

It is reported that the illegals in New York City are not just getting shelter at hotels in the city.

Sanctuary hotels also offer social freebies, according to the city’s Department of Homeless Services. Many hotels provide bilingual operational support services, including child care, job training, computer access, personal care items, and laundry service. Migrants can also receive trauma or mental health counseling.

Hotel room rates are just one example of the compounding effects of illegal immigration.

Far more troubling is what is going on in the labor market.

Yes, there is a need for immigrant labor in certain sectors of the economy.

However, how does the United States absorb 10+ million illegal immigrants into the labor market in three years without negatively impacting the jobs and wages of native born workers?

A UK firm, Standard Chartered recently released a research report that estimated that half of the job growth this fiscal year beginning in October, 2023 is the result of jobs that have gone to undocumented immigrants.

Source: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1799608998561231342/photo/1

What is striking in this chart is comparing the job growth this year in undocumented immigrants (dark green) to legal immigrants (blue) and to native born workers (light green).

This research further amplifies what I have reported in the past about U.S. employment trends that show that all of the job growth in recent years has gone to foreign born workers.

It is true that some of this is due to the fact that native-born boomers are aging out of the workforce.

However, their children and grandchildren are not taking those jobs.

In the last four years, the number of foreign born workers has increased by approximately 4 million workers while the number of native born workers has been flat. 

A growing economy has masked the potential societal issues with this trend.

However, a slowing economy and a future recession will be a different story.

We may not see a recession next month or even within the next year. However, we will see one in the foreseeable future. 

We will then see the full force of the compounding effects of illegal immigration when millions who want to work can't find a job--both natives and immigrants.

At that point we are going to wish we had multiples of that $151 billion we spent last year on illegals to take care of a lot of joblessness and economic suffering.

The full compounding effects of illegal immigration is yet to come.

Father of the Year?

The public image of Joe Biden is that he is a decent, compassionate and caring human being.

"Good old Joe".

He is referred to as a wonderful father.

A recent CBS poll shows that Donald Trump's scores with voters were much higher on every attribute to describe the candidates with the exception of "compassionate".

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-biden-neck-and-neck-06-09-2024/

However, is that really true?

Is Joe Biden really a compassionate person and father?

This is a subject I addressed previously in these pages two weeks before the 2020 election and shortly after the Hunter Biden laptop story first appeared.

Of course, the mainstream media and most of social media censored the story as being Russian disinformation. The claim was bolstered by the claims of 51 ex-National Security "experts".

We now know that the laptop was very real. In fact, the FBI was in possession of the laptop and had already verified its authenticity before the 2020 election but remained silent about it. 

In fact, the laptop was just used as primary evidence in the trial that convicted Hunter Biden of lying on a federal gun application in 2018.

Would a compassionate father have run for President in 2020 knowing the addiction and other problems his son was having?

Let's revisit what I wrote on the eve of the 2020 election about Joe and Hunter Biden.

I am sorry to say that most of what I predicted has come true.

Hunter would have never gotten the scrutiny that he has but for Joe Biden running for President.

It got even worse when he was elected. Hunter's issues were put in an even bigger spotlight.

Joe Biden was selfish in running in 2020 considering Hunter's problems.

Joe Biden is just as selfish in 2024 running for re-election considering the nation's problems and his evident weaknesses in mind and body.

Neither of these makes Joe Biden a compassionate and caring person.

Or, in my mind, a candidate for any Father of the Year awards.

Read on and answer the question...

Would you rather have Donald Trump or Joe Biden as your father?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Excerpted from a blog post written October 21, 2020). Link to original blog post

The narrative about Biden is that he is a decent man. He is dedicated to his family. He cares deeply about you and our country. 

Let's unpack this as we look at the revelations and allegations surrounding what is on his son's laptop.

Is Joe Biden a decent man?

I have great sympathy for some of the personal challenges that Joe Biden has had to go through in his life. He lost his wife and infant daughter in a car accident shortly after his 1972 election to the United States Senate when he was 30 years old.

He was a widower before he was even sworn in with two young sons, Beau and Hunter, who had survived the auto accident.

It could not have been easy.

His older son, Beau, seems to have been selected to carry on his father's political legacy. Beau ran for and was elected Attorney General of Delaware in 2006. Beau announced his intention to run for Governor of Delaware in 2016. Unfortunately, brain cancer would end the young Biden's life in 2015.

In that his father and brother were both involved in politics it appears from what was on Hunter's laptop that keeping the family in money fell to the youngest son. Was Hunter used as the frontman to collect money and take care of his family?

This text message to his daughter Naomi suggests that may be the case.

Text message from Hunter Biden on his laptop to his daughter Naomi

You see something similar in another text message exchange with Naomi who was then a law student at Columbia and was pleading with her father (Hunter) to put emergency cash in her account.

This is from a Fox News story which wrote about the text exchange.

“Can you put 150 in my account it was just declined for lyft to airport sorry sorry sorry,” the now-26-year-old Columbia Law student asked.

“Yes I can but Naomi you ­really have to start to realize that once you are out of school the chances of you living like your father is a billionaire when he’s really given all his money away- is going to be a bit of a shock,” Hunter answered.

“I know I promise ill be much better this year!!!!!!!!!!! Promise,” Naomi wrote back.

You have to ask who exactly did Hunter give all his money away to?

What is clear from these text messages is that Hunter seems to have felt great pressure to produce for the family. That pressure seems to have fostered great resentment in Hunter.  He also clearly believes he is under appreciated.

Perhaps these are the reasons that Hunter descended into the addiction issues he has had.

We still don't know how this is going to play out.

There is a good reason that Joe Biden has put a lid on everything for four days in the home stretch of a Presidential campaign.

Biden is caught in a tough predicament in that he claims he never knew or discussed any of his son's foreign business interests with him. It appears that evidence is there to show that Hunter traded heavily on the Biden name, access and influence in return for the financial deals he got.

Joe needs to come up with an answer. His problem is that he is not completely certain what the questions will be once more of the contents of those emails are disclosed.

Will Joe attempt to throw Hunter under the bus in order to save his candidacy down the stretch? Is the only way out now to continue to claim he knew nothing about it but admit Hunter had possibly profited from his name? Biden might claim he is shocked that  he has discovered about his son but ask people to be sympathetic to him because of his addiction issues. Hunter only did what he did because of his addiction disease that he will now seek more treatment for.

I actually feel sorry for Hunter right now and concerned for him. He knows what is on that hard drive. It must not be easy to sleep or to face his father right now. It cannot be good considering his past troubles.

Is Joe Biden a decent man? I guess the voters will have to decide that for themselves.

However, looking at all of this you have to wonder why a decent man would have run in these circumstances if he were thinking about his son?

This is not going away for Hunter no matter what happens. In fact, the scrutiny and the consequences will be much greater for Hunter if Joe is elected than if he isn't.

Joe Biden knew his son was in a bad place with his addiction issues. He had to know that the millions of dollars that Hunter received for his foreign business deals were suspect even if he did not have his own hand in the till. He had to know what could happen to Hunter if it unraveled?

Decency? Why did Biden run? Was the fame and money worth more than his remaining son?

Think about that as you watch the debate and we see how this story unfolds.

Joe may survive. However, I am genuinely concerned about Hunter.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of course, we know that Joe Biden did not need to answer any questions about the laptop in those final days of the election because the media censored the story.

It was dismissed as a fake Russian disinformation story.

Joe Biden even stood up at the last Trump-Biden debate and dismissed the entire laptop story as a Russian plant by referencing those "national security experts".

We also know that current Secretary of State Anthony Blinken coordinated getting all of those national security experts to sign on to that letter so that Biden would have cover to deny the laptop was real at the debate.

Joe Biden knew it was all a lie. He knew it was Hunter's laptop. Even worse, the FBI knew the laptop was Hunter's laptop as they had possessed it since 2019 and had already verified its contents.They stayed silent through it all.

USA Today columnist Ingrid Jacques provided a helpful summary of the history of all this last week. 

Looking back on this, what is truly astounding is how long it takes for the truth in many of these situations to be revealed.

It just shows you how powerful the establishment media and political cabal that protects Joe Biden and the Democrats is.

It is also interesting to look back and see the three things that Donald Trump has constantly preached to his children as they were growing up.

Trump reportedly has not ever used any of the three. However, I doubt that less than 1% of the population knows this about him.

No drugs.

No alcohol.

No cigarettes.

He was even shown telling this to 4-year old Barron Trump when Trump was on the Larry King show in 2010.

He asks many young people he meets on the campaign to repeat a pledge to him that they will avoid or abstain from all three.

You can't start the messaging early enough if you are Trump.

If Joe Biden had given this fatherly advice to Hunter he clearly did not listen.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/29/hunter-biden-high-drunk-name-father-joe-pressure-business/

Of course, let's not forget that Joe Biden, when confronted with many of the things Hunter has been accused of, including lying about his drug use on the gun application he was just convicted for, stated this last year.

“My son has done nothing wrong. I trust him. I have faith in him and it impacts my presidency by making me feel proud of him,” 

I guess that is true if you ignore the fact that Hunter was addicted to crack cocaine, he fathered an illegitimate child with a dancer at a D.C. men's club, he was in a legal battle trying to avoid paying the mother child support, used his political connections in D.C. on behalf of foreign principals and never registered this activity as required by law (FARA), lied on a federal gun application and apparently did not pay taxes on millions of dollars of income.

That may only be half of the story.

We may never know the full extent of Hunter's wrongdoings or how he traded on his father's influence.

Or how Joe Biden might have profited from it as well.

Happy Father's Day to all.

Forget about the election.

If you are picking a father, who would more likely put you on the right path and have your best interests at heart?