Last July I wrote a blog post in which I predicted that Joe Biden's approval rating was likely to soon start sinking fast.
The polls indicated that Biden's approval on issues such as immigration, crime and addressing gun violence were all well below 50%.
However, I believed that his advisors should be more concerned about the issues that Biden had majority approval on at the time.
I predicted that each of these issues had the potential to turn decidedly against Biden in the coming months.
In July, Biden had 63% approval for his handling of Covid.
He had 55% approval on his handling of the upcoming Afghanistan withdrawal.
Biden had 53% approval on the economy.
I saw trouble ahead on all three for Biden.
I asked where Biden's approval would be if Covid cases started rising, the Afghan withdrawal ended in chaos and inflation proved to be much more than a transitory problem?
Since Biden was underwater on the other big issues if he ran into trouble on these three issues his approval rating would sink very fast.
Biden's performance on those three issues over the last six months could not be much worse.
Biden's Afghan withdrawal turned out to be one of the greatest foreign policy disasters in American history.
Covid cases have exploded to heights that are unimaginable considering that six months ago Biden and his public health experts were telling everybody that if you were vaccinated you could not be infected or transmit the virus.
Joe Biden said this on a CNN Town Hall telecast on July 21, 2021.
"You're not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations."
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| U.S. New Reported Covid Cases- 7-day average Source: New York Times |
Inflation is raging. We found out yesterday that the consumer price index has increased 7% over the last 12 months. We have not seen anything similar in 39 years.
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| Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-prices-surged-7-2021-133433217.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
What is particularly alarming is that price increases were greatest in those things average families rely on to live and make a living ---gasoline prices +49.6%, used cars and trucks +37.3%, natural gas prices +24.1%, food +6.3%.
The depths that Joe Biden is sinking is evident in recent polls.
Rasmussen was out with a poll yesterday that had Biden's approval at 40% and disapproval at 58%.
Despite Donald Trump facing continuing attacks throughout his entire first year about "Russia collusion", which we now know to be completely fabricated, Trump's approval rating on the same date in 2018 was 46%.
By contrast, Biden is largely getting a free pass from the media and he is sitting at 40% by the same pollster.
Even worse for Biden is a Quinnipiac poll of voting age adults that has him at 33% approval. 53% disapprove.
Look at Biden's trend in approval in the last seven Quinnipiac polls starting in May.
49%--46%---42%---38%---37%---36%---33%.
What I find most interesting in the Quinnipiac poll numbers is how far Biden's support has evaporated in two groups that the Democrats have traditionally considered key constituencies.
Democrats have relied on young voters for strong support over the last several decades.
Biden had a +24 point advantage with 18-29 year old voters in 2020.
In the Quinnipiac poll Biden is -28 in his approval rating with 18-34 age voters.
Biden only has a 24% approval rating with this age group. 52% disapprove.
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| Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf |
Has any political office holder ever fallen faster and further with any demographic group in history than Biden has with young voters?
Hispanic voters are another group that Democrats have come to rely on.
Attempting to appeal to this group seems to be the sole reason that the Democrats keep pushing for the insane immigration policies they do.
Biden had a +31 point advantage with Hispanics in 2020.
Hillary Clinton did even better in 2016. She was +37 with this group in 2016.
Biden is -23% with Hispanics.
Just 28% of Hispanics approve of Biden's job performance. 51% disapprove.
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| Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf |
It is expected that a politician is not going to have the approval of those of the other party.
Biden has a 2% approval rating with Republicans.
Warning signs appear when Independents turn their thumbs down on your performance.
Biden has a 25% approval rating with Independents.
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| Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf |
However, when you lose the approval of large blocs of voters who have traditionally supported your party you are in deep, deep trouble.
That is where Joe Biden finds himself right now.
Biden is sinking so deep that we are starting to see Democrats distance themselves lest they be sucked into the quicksand with him.
I thought it notable that Georgia's likely Democrat candidate for Governor, Stacey Abrams, was a "no-show" when Biden was in Georgia yesterday for a speech in that state.
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| Source: https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-joe-biden-voting-atlanta-stacey-abrams-7bb6e8cd4ad78267cc56d713ecdbf39d |
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| Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-stacey-abrams-unpopular-biden-georgia |
Politicians can survive if all they have to worry about are their foes.
They cannot survive when those who are supposed to be their "friends" start to abandon them.
Based on the polling, Joe Biden is losing large blocs of those who should be reliable supporters.
All Democrats have to be looking at this with alarm.
Is Biden going to drag me down with him?
The 2022 mid-term elections are still 10 months away but in the end the only thing that is important to any politician is THEIR ELECTION.
If Joe Biden can help them he is described as a great friend.
If Joe Biden becomes a liability to their election he will be considered an unwelcome stranger.
It will be interesting to see how 2022 unfolds on this score.
If Biden sinks much deeper there may be no coming back for him and his friends.
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