Bleaker for Biden

Every week it seems the news gets bleaker for Biden.

If I was a Biden adviser I would cringe with the arrival of each new poll.

This is a sampling of some of the bad news for Biden in a NBC News poll released last week.

72% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Just 5% believe Biden has done better than expected. 36% believe he has done worse than expected.

Biden's approval with Independents is 36%. That is -32 points since April.

He is -19 points with Black voters, -16 with 18-34 age group voters, -11 with Hispanics and -10 points with women since April. These are all key groups who supported Biden's election.

Most tellingly, only 28% of respondents in an AP/NORC poll released last week would like to see Biden run for office in 2024.

Less than half of identified Democrats want him to run again.

That is bleak news for Biden.

Donald Trump fared no better on that score in the same poll. Only 27% stated they would like to see Trump run in 2024.

Therefore, this puts us in the interesting position right now in that both of the presumptive favorites to be on the ballot in 2024 have about 3/4 of the American people saying NO THANKS to either of them.

Another problem the Democrats have is that Vice President Kamala Harris is proving to be one of the most unpopular politicians in the United States.

Kamala Harris has only a 32% approval rating in the NBC poll.

That is -17 points in one year and the worse decline in popularity for a VP in modern history.

Rasmussen was out with a new poll yesterday that showed that 50% of voters STRONGLY DISAPPROVED of Biden's job performance. 18% strongly approved.

That puts Biden's current net rating at -32.

Source: https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1486062063306874886/photo/1

Trump's worst rating was -26.  However, that was in the summer of 2017 when all we heard about was the fake Russian collusion narrative. Trump was at a net index of 0 on election day, 2020.

It appears that the only thing that could be saving Biden from outright rebellion in his own party is the fact that the alternative would put them in a worse position with the voters right now.

A new Harvard/Harris poll puts all of this in better perspective.

It has Trump +6 in a head to head match in 2024 with Biden.

Trump is +10 if he squares off with Kamala Harris.

Biden's popular vote margin was +4.5 points in 2020. This means there has been a swing of about 10 points away from Biden if this poll is accurate.

It is also interesting to note that even though the AP/NORC poll showed that only 27% wanted to see Trump on the ballot, he still handily beats both Biden and Harris.

The most likely alternative to Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, can do no better than a dead heat with Harris in the poll.

Yes, it is early, but Trump has the advantage of being a known quantity despite the fact that a substantial number of people would not like to see him on the ballot in 2024. It is also true that many voters do not know enough about Ron DeSantis or other possible GOP alternatives to Trump right now.

As I have written before, the worse things get, the better Trump will look to voters. There are many things people do not like about Trump but it would be unwise to discount him at this point.

Consider this interesting data that I found deep within the NBC New Poll which indicates that there is a substantial reservoir of positive feelings of how well people believed things were going for them during the Trump years before Covid hit.

This was the question asked in the poll.

Compared with other years, do you consider 2021 was one the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States.

Just 1% said 2021 was one the best years. 4% said it was above average. 44% said it was one of the worst years and 37% said it was below average.

Below is a chart I prepared of the % of poll respondents who felt the stated year was either one of the best or above average in other years this question was asked in the NBC News poll.

What stands out are the high percentage of people who stated that 2017-2019 were one of the best (or above average) for the United States.

NBC must not have polled this question in 2020, or in some other years (notably 2010 and 2011, but there is no other period in the last 30 years that Americans felt better about the United States than in the first three years of the Trump administration. 

There is not another period that is even close.

It is quite remarkable, especially the high percentages who referred to 2018 and 2019 as "one of the best years for the United States".

That is one of the reasons I think it is too early to count out Donald Trump. He does have a record to fall back on---good and bad. However, those are very good numbers to have in your favor if things continue to deteriorate.

The news is beginning to look bleaker for Biden on that score as well. What record does he have to point to?

The #1 issue that Americans want the government to focus on in 2022 is the economy. Nothing else is even close according to the AP poll.

Covid is -16 points from a year ago.

However, inflation is still eating away at household incomes.

The stock market has also started to stagger.

The NASDAQ composite is now below where it was a year ago.

The S&P 500 is below where it was six months ago and has declined almost 10% since January 1.

The Biden administration been working hard to claim that it has produced a record number of jobs in its first year.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/biden-says-his-economic-plan-working-after-record-2021-job-gain

However, the reality is the job growth just involves recovery from the Covid-related job losses during the previous two years.

What is more telling is where that job growth is coming from.

It is not coming from Biden or policies in various Democrat-controlled states.

Most of the job growth is coming from Republican-controlled states.

Source: https://wallethub.com/edu/states-unemployment-rates/74907

Job growth is lagging most in Democrat-controlled states like New York and New Jersey.

Source: https://wallethub.com/edu/states-unemployment-rates/74907

What is Joe Biden doing that is creating many more jobs in red states than in blue states?

All of the states with the highest unemployment rates are Democrat-controlled that voted for Joe Biden.

Source: https://wallethub.com/edu/states-unemployment-rates/74907

You can also see some interesting trends in domestic migration between April, 2020 and June, 2021.

People are leaving states that have restricted their freedoms and have moved in increasing numbers to the Sunbelt where there are less restrictions on businesses, children are being taught in school, job growth is greatest and salaries and wages are increasing the fastest.

What did Joe Biden have to do with this?

Source: https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1485644894374879240/photo/1

Joe Biden can try to talk his way out of the bleak situation he is in.

However, the American people seem to be beyond talk and promises from Biden at this point.

I have seen some comments from political analysts stating that Biden is too far gone in these polls to recover.

I never say never in politics.

It is bleak for Biden but how can it get much worse? How much lower can he go in the polls?

However, Biden has always been better at talking than doing in his years in politics.

The American people are done with his talk.

It is time for Biden to stand and deliver. 

But he first needs to crawl out of the dark, bleak hole he finds himself in one year into his term.