Friday, January 21, 2022

The Retreat Is Underway


At the beginning of this week I predicted that this would be the week in which Covid cases would peak for the Winter season.

You can see the retreat in cases is underway nationally signifying the peak has been reached.

New Daily Cases in the United States
Source: The New York Times

The retreat in cases is more evident in looking at some individual states.

New York

New Reported Covid Cases in New York
Source: The New York Times

New Jersey

New Reported Covid Cases in New Jersey
Source: The New York Times


New Reported Cases in Maryland
Source: The New York Times

Washington, D.C.

New Reported Covid Cases in Washington, D.C.
Source: The New York Times


New Reported Cases in Florida
Source: The New York Times

What I have found more interesting recently is the extent to which many of the so-called "experts" are retreating from key elements of the narrative they have pushed for most of the last two years.

It almost seems as if people are retreating quickly from previous positions so as not to be left in defending indefensible positions as the narrative breaks down.

Not retreating could soon be hazardous or unpleasant for these experts.

We are now hearing that cloth masks are useless against the virus after they were so heavily promoted (and mandated) for so long despite volumes of scientific research over the years that showed they were of minimal value in preventing infection or transmission of respiratory viruses such as Covid.

This is the headline from a recent article in Infection Control Today. It is redux because it had an article with the same headline in April, 2020.

The UK announced this week it is ending all face mask and vaccine passport mandates in the country.


England's Plan B measures are to end from next Thursday, with mandatory face coverings in public places and Covid passports both dropped, Boris Johnson has announced.

The prime minister also said the government would immediately drop its advice for people to work from home.

The Czech Republic also repealed its vaccine mandate this week.



One of the more interesting developments was in Israel in which one of that country's leading immunologists and an architect of its vaccination program admitted that the Green Pass program no longer has any scientific basis in that it is now known that the vaccines cannot stop infection or transmission.

He admitted that the only reason that the Green Pass might be retained is as a political tool to use to force more people to get vaccinated.

I thought everything was about the SCIENCE?

Professor Cyrille Cohen, head of immunology at Bar Ilan University, stated in this podcast that the fact that the vaccines did not prevent infection and transmission has been a surprise. They believe it is due to the fact that the vaccines do not produce mucosal immunity and that there is a need for a nasal vaccine with sterilizing immunity to be successful in combating Covid.

He also admits that Israel's biggest mistake was closing their schools and that it is also clear that natural immunity confers superior protection to infection than the vaccines. However, there is risk in reaching herd immunity through infections.

Nevertheless, Cohen believes that Omicron has accelerated the path for Covid to become endemic as it is inevitable that more people will be become infected over time. The vaccines can do little to stop the virus at this point.

In addition, a preliminary study out of Israel this week indicated that a 4th vaccine booster being used in Israel shows very limited protection against Omicron.


Israel currently has well over double the number of cases per capita as the United States.

Israel has also administered over twice as many Covid booster vaccines per capita as the United States.

Do you begin to see why Israel is beginning to retreat on its vaccine strategy?

Even Starbucks has retreated from its previous policy that all employees must be vaccinated or lose their jobs.



Starbucks is pointing to the Supreme Court ruling as the reason for the change but my guess is the decision was made because management became concerned about filling positions in their stores as well as increasing calls from some employees on the need to unionize.

The fact that the vaccine narrative is falling apart seems to also be catching the attention of Wall Street.

If people are not getting all those jabs that means the revenues to those making the vaccines may also be soon in retreat.

The result has been a major retreat in stock prices of the big vaccine players over the last week.

Moderna's stock price is down almost 24% in the last five days.

BioNTech's stock price is down 28%.

Novavax, which has a Covid vaccine that has not yet been authorized in the United States but is being administered in other parts of the world, is down 29%

Pfizer's stock price has held up better but that is undoubtedly due to the fact that Pfizer has a much more diversified drug and vaccine portfolio and it also has a Covid therapeutic drug (Paxlovid) that has shown promise in clinical trials. The failure of the vaccines may actually spur more business for this drug treatment that is given post-infection.

The last five days have seen over $50 billion of stock market value evaporate with these four vaccine manufacturers.

Is there more known to those who are in the know than the rest of know now about the future of the vaccines?

What other parts of the narrative will we see further retreats on in the coming days?

In the meantime, let's all hope that the cases continue retreating based on current trends.

Speaking of retreats, the final CDC numbers for 2021 are in so that we can compare the two years of the pandemic.

Total cases were +72% in 2021 vs. 2020 according to CDC data.

Deaths were +28% higher.

This all with the "highly effective" vaccines.

How did Joe Biden answer a question at Wednesday's press conference in which he was asked whether he "overpromised" on a number of issues coming into office a year ago including the promise that he was going to "lockdown the virus."

“I didn’t overpromise,” he said. “I have probably outperformed what anybody thought would happen.”

This is outperformance?

If it is let us all retreat to 2020.

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