Monday, January 3, 2022

The State of the Virus

As we begin the new year let's take account of the state of the virus.

Since the Covid virus was unleashed on the world over two years ago our experts have believed that they could control and outsmart the virus.

They told us the virus could be defeated by social distancing, washing our hands, locking down businesses, closing schools and wearing face masks.


They told us that those vaccinated could not spread the virus.

April 1, 2021

The experts said that the vaccines would mean Covid would hit a dead end and disappear.

May 16, 2021

They then said that boosters on top of the original doses of the vaccine would be the answer to get us to normal.


The virus has always won.

Right now it is winning like it is Alabama playing the Sisters of Mercy junior high football team.

Transport yourself back in time to one year ago just as the vaccines were being introduced and having someone show you this chart predicting how Covid pandemic cases would look over the next year.

New reported cases (7-day average) in the United States as of 12/31/21
Source: The New York Times

The 7-day average of cases was almost exactly double on December 31, 2021 as it was a year earlier shortly after the vaccines were first administered.

Imagine how quickly that person would have been permanently banned by Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn a year ago for spreading dangerous lies and misinformation like this?

The graphs look even worse in heavily vaccinated Washington, DC, New York and New Jersey.

On December 31 all had reached new daily case averages that were over 300% above last winter's peak daily case average.

Source: The New York Times


If anyone had a peek at the future a year ago and saw how this would unfold could they have possibly believed that these vaccines were "effective" let alone considered to be "an honest-to-God miracle?


Keep in mind that these official daily case counts right now are undoubtedly seriously undercounting cases relative to last year because there are so many home self-tests now being used.

In the meantime, the experts are busy trying to revise history by claiming that no one ever said that the vaccines were going to prevent you from getting Covid.

The problem is that all of them said it. You see can it here.


I am one person who did not say it.

I wrote this in October, 2020 (two months BEFORE the vaccines were authorized) after I read how the testing protocols for the Covid vaccines were being conducted. I asked at that time what was the point of having vaccines that did not have a primary goal of preventing infection?

Prevention of infection is the normal critical end point goal for any vaccine trial. The vaccine should be effective at preventing infection and stopping the spread of the virus. This is particularly important at this time when we have a virus that has caused a pandemic.

However, that is not the stated goal of the Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson vaccines that are currently in late stage trials with the expectation they will be ready for widespread distribution within several months.

... in none of the vaccine trial protocols for any of these vaccines is the prevention of infection considered a criterion of success.

The vaccines are to be considered a success merely if they reduce the severity of the symptoms of someone who is infected with Covid.

This is further confirmed in the vaccine testing protocols in that none of the vaccine candidates list preventing hospitalizations and deaths as primary goals of the vaccines either.

What then is the point of spending billions and billions of dollars on these vaccines?

Of course, the FDA also said it when it gave the EUA (emergency use authorization) which was based on the assertion that the vaccines were "to prevent coronavirus disease 2019."

For example, this is an excerpt from the review memorandum from the FDA when the EUA was granted for the Pfizer vaccine. 

Source: Source:

As I have stated previously, there is evidence to suggest that the vaccines have reduced hospitalizations and deaths.

However, the data suggests that the claims have been vastly oversold.

How often have we have heard that "99%" or "almost everyone" in the hospital, or has died from Covid over the last year, has been unvaccinated?

The latest data from the UK in its weekly surveillance report indicates that 70% of those who died with a Covid positive test in the previous four weeks were fully vaccinated with two doses.

Source: UK Covid-19 Surveillance Report, Week 51, Page 38

Since most of the deaths are in those age 60+, and these age groups have vaccination rates exceeding 90%, there is evidence of a protective benefit from the vaccine in this data. Full effectiveness with a 90% vaccine rate would equate to a 10% death rate. No effectiveness would be a 90% death rate. A 70% death rate indicates a marginal benefit.

Interestingly, data from Ontario released this week also shows that 66% of hospitalizations in that Canadian province are fully vaccinated. Only 29% of cases are in those unvaccinated.


29% is a long way from 99%.

Again, the data indicates that the vaccines are providing some benefit at keeping people out of the hospitals. However, the claims made about reduced hospitalizations due to the vaccines seem wildly exaggerated.

I wish I could provide you with U.S. data from the CDC but it is not publishing this information in the same detail and timeliness that is available in other parts of the world.

However, what would explain why the U.S. data would be materially different? 

What is most disturbing about the state of the virus right now is that it appears to actually be disproportionately attacking the vaccinated. 

For example, right now in Ontario there are 33% more Covid cases per capita in those fully vaccinated than in those not vaccinated.


A report out of German also shows a disproportionate amount of Omicron cases are in the fully vaccinated.


In Israel, 65% of the population is fully vaccinated. 45% is boosted. 35% is unvaccinated.

79% of cases last week were in those fully vaccinated or boosted. Only 19% of cases are in unvaccinated although that group represents 35% of the population.


It seems that no matter where we look the virus is winning against human interventions.

In fact, as the charts above indicate, we may have actually boosted the virus through use of the vaccines.

In Australia, which has used internment camps to quarantine those infected or with close contacts with Covid, the daily 7-day average of cases looks like this.

91% of everyone age 16+ is fully vaccinated in Australia.

One of the most remarkable statistics I have seen since the beginning of the pandemic is that Australia had more new cases of Covid on a single day (December 31, 2021) than it had in the entire year of 2020!

Chart: BeeLine

On January 1, 2022, cases on that single day in Australia (60,006 new daily cases) were more than twice what they were for the entire year 2020!

If there remains any doubt in your mind that the experts have totally failed in telling us that they could control and outsmart the virus with the vaccines and other human interventions, consider this story out of Antarctica.


Despite everyone being fully vaccinated and tested before arriving at one of the most remote outposts in the world, 16 of 25 of workers at the Belgium scientific research station have caught the virus.

Such is the state of the virus.

The problem that the experts face now is that they have told people for almost two years they have had all the answers as to how to end this.

They have also tried to censor and marginalize anyone who challenged the narrative.

All of this was done under a social contract in which people gave up some of their freedoms and trusted that the public authorities knew what they doing in furtherance of the best interests of the greater good.

More people have sacrificed individual freedom and rights in the name of public health over the last two years that at any time in history.

Billions of people agreed to be vaccinated against Covid on the promise that it would allow them to regain their freedom and/or protect other people in their communities.

Many did so against their own conscience under coercion in order to travel, socialize or retain their job.

However, more and more people are beginning to see that the social contract was violated by public authorities who have been arrogant and close-minded in their approach. The social contract does not work if there are no tangible results to show for it. Many are now seeing that their sacrifices were for naught.

If those public authorities were smart they would usher in 2022 with a new-found humility and confession about their many errors.

Their arrogance and unwillingness to consider other opinions and alternative approaches to confront the virus have harmed untold millions.

As a result, the state of many unions around the world will be harmed due to the damage done to the social contract.

Judgments are coming in 2022.

We will undoubtedly see many of the "experts" walk back previous statements, make excuses or attempt to rewrite history in order to cover their rear ends.

Those who are unwilling to admit the errors of the path they put society on will fall hard.

It is long past time that the responsible authorities put their pride aside and replace their hubris with a measure of humility regarding the harm they visited upon those who provided them such unfounded trust.

Proverbs 16:18

“Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.”


  1. While I agree with most of what you write sometime I dispute some of your conclusions extracted from the data you present. Most prominently is regarding Australia. My theory is that because of the draconian rules that have been forced upon us, the virus had no opportunity to spread. Now we are nearly 90% vaxed all those rules have been repealed and we are mixing and partying without care. Consequently the virus is raging.

    I believe we should have stuck to the first principle of flattening the curve with social distancing. We would have all had the virus by now in a slow and orderly fashion that could have been dealt with by hospitals. Instead we are all going to be infected in the next few months. The only good news is that Omicron is the predominate strain.

    I believe your theory that new strains are caused by vaccines. A good thing we got vaxed because now we only have to deal with Omicron.

    1. Ross,
      My conclusions are not much different than yours. My major conclusion is that the human interventions we have tried have both prolonged the pandemic and substantially increased the human costs.
      The better strategy would have been to carry on as close to usual as possible and protect the vulnerable much as Sweden did.
      There is little question that what Australia is dealing with right now is related to coming off lockdowns with compromised natural immune systems that have largely not been challenged over the last 2 years.
      The targeted vaccine is a poor substitute for broader-based natural immunity.
      I think what we are seeing in Australia is Exhibit One that it is not possible to put a lid on the virus and think you are never going to pay a price for it.
      The biggest single mistake was putting so much faith in vaccines that had no proven ability to prevent infection and transmission. This would have never been acceptable in dealing with smallpox, polio etc. Why did we do it here?
      Stay well!