Friday, April 21, 2023

Perception and Reality

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.”

This quote has been attributed to Mark Twain.

The problem today is that in a world in which more information is readily available than at anytime in history there seems to be more people who don't know basic facts.

There is a wide gap between what people believe to be true and what is actually true.

If you doubt this take a look at this survey that was done by YouGovAmerica which asked 1,000 U.S. adult citizens to estimate the percentage of adults in various demographic groups.

The degree to which the perception of those surveyed differed from reality is remarkable.


Credit: https://twitter.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1648515040948146178/photo/1
 


Respondents believed that 20% of households in the United States had incomes of over $1 million.

The actual numbers do not even round up to 1%.

Respondents believed that 21% of American adults are trans and 30% are gay or lesbian. 

The actual percentages are 1% and 3%.

They estimated that 30% of Americans were Jewish when the actual number is 2%.

They believe that 40% of adults are military veterans compared to 6% being the true proportion.

What can we take from this?

First, it shows the extent with which mathematical illiteracy or innumeracy is prevalent in the United States.

It also shows a dearth of critical thinking skills. 

Look at the numbers above on estimates of those who live in New York City, California and Florida.

Respondents estimated that 30% of Americans lived in New York City, 32% in California and 30% in Texas. That equals 92% of the population. 

If anyone stopped and considered their answer for more than a millisecond they would see that is impossible.

Unfortunately, very few apply basic critical thinking skills anymore.

Second, I believe the answers show how pervasive and persuasive the news media, social media and popular media are in shaping the views and perceptions of Americans.

Why do people believe that 20% of Americans are making more than $1 million?

Is it because the news media and various politicians like to blame "the rich" for many of the nation's ills?

Is it because the lifestyles of the rich and famous are so prominent in popular media?

Why do people believe that 92% of Americans live in New York City, California or Texas?

Consider how many movies or tv shows have a connection to these areas.

Why do people believe that 30% are gay or lesbian?

Can you watch a tv show or movie and not see a gay or lesbian character?

I would have liked to see a survey question on the estimate of the percentage of married couples that are mixed race.

It seems today that nearly every commercial on tv involves a mixed race couple and often included biracial children.


Nissan tv commercial
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kS9TEzAciU



Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_race-america_americans-see-more-interracial-relationships-advertising/6202928.html




State Farm Insurance ad
Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_race-america_americans-see-more-interracial-relationships-advertising/6202928.html


This is portrayed as common place.

What are the actual numbers?

Only 7% of the 63 million married couples in the United States are mixed race.

63% of married couples in the United States are both white.

6% of married couples are both Black.

12% of married couples are both Hispanic.


Number of married couples in the United States in 2022, by ethnic group and origin of spouses
(in 1,000
s)
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/242028/number-of-married-couples-in-the-us-by-ethnic-group-and-combination/


You can be sure that the estimates of the numbers of mixed race couples would be high if it was surveyed.

All of this would be funny if not for the fact that the same people who believe they know what is going on around them are also voting.

In fact, their vote counts as much as my vote or yours.

Perception is reality if someone is never exposed to the real facts.

It is a reason that we have the troubles we do in the United States today.


"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so."

                                                                                                               -Mark Twain

It is also the reason I write this blog.

I try to focus on three things.

Facts. Data. Reality.

BeeLine is always trying to be the shortest route to what you need to know that is really so.

Share it liberally from time to time with  friends who need to know what is so.

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Awake or Woke?

No matter what we might think of the trans movement in the United States it pales in comparison to what is going on in Canada.

Perhaps the cold winters or high real estate prices are responsible.

For example, check out this headline about a stabbing in Halifax, Nova Scotia recently.


Source: https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2023-03-27/woman-jailed-after-stabbing-and-falsely-imprisoning-partner


Zara Jade was sentenced to nine years in prison for assault, robbery and false imprisonment.

I assume Jade is headed to the nearest women's prison.

I am sure the other inmates will be thrilled to have her? him? in their midst.

If things could not get any weirder in Canada, a male powerlifter identified as a woman for the "Heroes Classic" weightlifting event and proceeded to break the Alberta WOMEN's benchpress record.




The new women's record holder is Avi Silverberg, Team Canada's powerlifting coach, who just entered the competition to demonstrate how ridiculous the new rules are in Canada for trans athletes.

Silverger’s benchpress of 167.5 kilograms, or 369 pounds, was all the more shocking because it did not violate rules of the competition set by the Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sports and sanctioned by the Canadian Powerlifting Union. According to the organizations’ Trans Inclusion Policy, any athlete is able to compete in any gendered category based on self-identification alone.

What was even more ridiculous was that Silverberg broke the record previously held by another biological male who now identifies as a female who goes by the name Anne Andres.


Anne Andres

Andres is now unhappy that her previous record was broken by another trans athlete and said it was "unfair" that "she" was allowed to participate because "she" had not gone through any transition procedures.

As a result, Andres believes she has been discriminated against.

Of course, Andres doesn't seem to want to admit that the reason that she was beating her former competitors in the bench press by over 100 pounds might have something to do with the innate biological advantage that biological males have in upper body strength.

The United States is not immune from the madness.

In the state of Washington, some males are identifying as females when convicted of a crime in order to be sent to a women's prison.

Source: https://tennesseestar.com/policy/whistleblowers-female-inmates-in-washington-state-prison-forced-to-bunk-with-male-rapists-and-murderers-punished-if-they-object/admin/2023/04/16/

In March of 2022, Washington’s State legislature passed House Bill 1956, which prevents the state DOC from having to reveal any information about an inmate’s “transgender, intersex, nonbinary, or gender nonconforming status, sexual orientation, genital anatomy, or gender-affirming care or accommodations other than that person’s preferred name and pronouns.”

A female inmate in one detention facility explained what is happening in the state.

“All you have to do is say that you are a woman,” she said, explaining that men in the county jail often tell authorities that they identify as female just to get sent to their facility.

“The guys don’t even have to go to the men’s prison first,” she said. “Some of these men know that they’re men. They’re not trying to be a woman. They just say that to come here to have sex with women during their prison sentences.”

I am old enough to remember when Democrats and liberals were working hard in the 1970's to get the Equal Rights Amendment ratified as an amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

The stated purpose was to insure that equal rights for women in matters of divorce, property, employment and other issues would be guaranteed by the Constitution.

Opponents of the measure argued that if the amendment was enacted same sex marriages would occur, single sex bathrooms would be eliminated, women could be drafted into military service and women's sports would be threatened.

No one at the time suggested that we could see men posing as women populating prisons. It was too ludicrous to contemplate.

Those supporting the amendment scoffed that any of this would result because of passage of the ERA.

The irony is that all of this has taken place without the ERA ever being ratified.

What I find most interesting is that human civilization has existed for centuries upon centuries without anyone ever suggesting that men could be women and women could be men.

Is all of this just another example of human evolution?

Or is all of this proof that the human species is degenerating into something that is totally unrecognizable to right-thinking people who are truly awake to incontrovertible truths and are not merely woke?

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Beliefs Drive Behavior

Almost everyone I speak to in my generation is confused.

The common refrain is "what has happened to the United States of America?

For those who grew up in a different era it almost feels as if we are living on a different planet

I have a friend who often says "Beliefs drive behavior."

What are the beliefs and values that Americans say are very important to them today?

Compare the responses on this recent WSJ/NORC poll between 1998 and today,

A lot has changed on what Americans value in the last 25 years.



What more does one need to consider on why we are where we are today?

Patriotism? Who cares?

Religion? I don't need it.

Children? A complete nuisance that keeps me from doing what I want to do.

Money is more important now than all three.

It was not even half as important as these other values and beliefs a generation ago.

Beliefs drive behavior.

We are living it today.

Monday, April 10, 2023

Home Sweet Home

Conventional wisdom has long held that you should buy a home as soon as you can.

"It is better to own that rent."

"If you rent you are just throwing your money away."

Of course, this financial advice ignores several underlying truths.

If you buy a house and take out a 30 year mortgage a large portion of the money you pay each month is going to pay interest in the beginning. You are building little equity in the first years you are in the house. 

In effect, the interest payments are not much different than rent payments.

For example, this is the amortization schedule on a $200,000 loan at a 6.86 interest rate for the first five years of a 30-year mortgage loan.

Despite $63,000 being paid on the mortgage less than 15% of the total payments goes to pay down the  balance by year 5 (less than $10,000 on the $200,000 loan).


Source: https://www.calculator.net/mortgage-amortization-calculator.html


Second, owning the house also makes you responsible for real estate taxes, insurance and repair costs that you don't have as a renter. These costs quickly add up.

Finally, if you buy a house and find that you will have to move within the first three years, the odds are high that you will not make any money on the house.

Housing prices have historically averaged about a 4% annual increase over the last 100 years. The last 50 years have been better (a little over 5%) thanks to low interest rates but real estate returns have still lagged stock and bond returns by significant margins over the last 50 years.


Source: NYU Stern School


When you take account of transaction costs in getting into and out of a house, you need close to a 10% increase in value just to cover transaction costs if you are in a house only a few years.

Of course, the increase in the value of houses over the last three years has been much higher than 4%-5% per year.

Does that suggest that we can expect housing values in the next few years to moderate or even fall?

That has to be a concern to anyone looking at the housing market right now.

For example, it is a rule of thumb that you should not spend more than 28% of your income on a mortgage payment. Spending more than this does not leave much flexibility to pay for the other necessities of life (food, utilities, transportation) not to mention taxes, insurance and saving for retirement.

There are now 30 states in the United States where the average mortgage payment on a median priced home is at least 30%.



Considering this data it should probably not come as a surprise that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has just approved 40-year mortgages beginning in May.

Source: https://www.abc15.com/news/state/fha-approved-40-year-mortgage-for-homebuyers-in-may


On the mortgage example above, a 40-year mortgage would decrease the monthly mortgage payment by $89/month but would result in an additional $115,000 in interest over the life of the loan.

How is this "innovation"going to really help anyone?

Housing affordability is even worse in Canada.

General inflation and real incomes are  both up +149% since 1976 in Toronto.

Housing prices are +1,840%!



The monthly mortgage payment on the median priced single family home in Toronto is now more than the median income in Toronto!


Source: https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1608449814186045440/photo/1


Notice in that graphic that it is projected that it would take 30 years for those with an average income to accumulate the funds necessary for a down payment if they save 10% of their income for that purpose.

A representative home in Toronto now costs more than $1.3 million.

Look at the bottom graphic to see how mortgage payments have increased from about 50% of income to 100% of income in Toronto in the last two years.


Source: https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1608449814186045440/photo/1


Indeed, how is that mathematically possible or sustainable?

You have to believe that something has to give in Canada (and in the United States).

We are likely to see more people renting because right now it has never been more financially advantageous to rent in the United States.



In the United States we are also seeing a surge in the construction of multi-family units unlike anything we have seen in the last 50 years.


Credit: https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1641203294755516416


When you see the current disconnect between mortgage payments and rents the natural order suggests that mortgage payments have to come down (as they did after 2007) or rents have to increase to be in some type of equilibrium.

However, there is currently a low supply of houses for sale in most parts of the country that is keeping home prices from falling and the increasing supply of new apartments may restrain rents from increasing.


Housing Inventory for Sale 1982-2023


This may mean that the disconnect between mortgage payments and rents could endure longer than we might normally expect.

Nevertheless, when anything is out of balance there are many forces at play to bring things back in balance.

You can expect the same in the relationship between mortgage payments and rents.

The end result may be deferred but you can only deny the reality of the numbers so long.

The mathematics and the economics of supply and demand will always win in the end. 

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Life or Death for LIV at The Masters?

Yes, that headline is a little over the top.

It is not really life or death for LIV based on how its 18 players performing The Masters this week.

However, I would submit that it is pretty important for the future of that Saudi-backed pro golf tour right now. 

I wrote in a blog post last year when it was just getting started that I thought the biggest challenge that LIV would face would be gaining relevancy due to weak distribution and lack of exposure to its audience.

The reality of all of this is that any professional league needs talented athletes. However, the athletes also need a venue to showcase their talents.

The greatest song in the world means nothing if it is not heard a lot...and by a lot of people.

We have always heard that "content is king". Yes, you need content.

However, content means nothing without distribution.

Tom Cruise might be the same actor performing in a community theatre in New Jersey as he is in Top Gun.

He might be the same guy performing at the community theater but how many would see him and how many would care?

His fame and his fortune is due to the distribution of his films.

The best examples of the importance of distribution over content in recent years is looking at what  happened to Bill O'Reilly and Megyn Kelly at Fox News. They both are talented and had broad audiences at FNC. Today you hear little about either as they try to maintain relevance on their own without the benefit of the FNC distribution and exposure.

I made this prediction in that blog post last year.

LIV may have guys who can play the game but it is going to be difficult to get and sustain an audience.

That has proven to be exactly the case.

Attendance at LIV events has been scant.

It has only recently inked its first corporate sponsor---EasyPost.


Source: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/liv-golf-first-sponsor-easypost-2023



LIV had no television deal last year and had to rely on streaming its events on the internet. 

It now has a tv deal but it is on the CW network and the ratings thus far have been less than impressive.

LIV's first event in Mexico in February was viewed by fewer than 300,000 on tv.

For perspective, the CW Network got higher ratings for an episode of the "World's Funniest Animals".



The PGA Tour's competing event that week drew seven times the number of viewers despite the fact that many of the biggest stars skipped the event.

The second LIV event in Tucson got lower ratings still.

Source:https://nypost.com/2023/03/19/liv-golfs-tv-ratings-somehow-get-worse-with-tucson-event/


Golf has never been considered a big tv ratings winner because it is considered to only have a niche audience. However, it is an affluent audience that is attractive to advertisers.

Despite that perception, the PGA Tour's Players Championship tv coverage on Sunday, the week before LIV's Tucson event, had the largest viewing audience of any sporting event the week ending March 12, 2023.

Higher tv ratings than any of the NCAA conference championship basketball tournament games.

Higher than the NBA, NASCAR, the World Baseball Classic, Soccer, the NHL or XFL that week.

LIV has a long way to go to build an audience.

LIV Golf has placed a big bet on generating interest (and selling sponsorships) for a team event that is simultaneously played with the individual competition at its tournaments.

This seems to be an attempt to capture the enthusiasm for team golf at the Ryder or President's Cup.

LIV's business model seems to be based on being able to sell these teams to sponsors for mega million deals.

However, why is anyone supposed to care about a 4Aces, HyFlyer or a RangeGoats team?


Source: https://www.livgolf.com/standings-2023


LIV Golf needs a few of their players to perform well and be at or near the top of the leaderboard at The Masters.

One of the biggest challenges LIV is facing is that its tour has quickly been perceived as nothing but an exhibition tour.

LIV has not helped the situation by letting players wear shorts, piping music over the course during play and using a shotgun start.

It has all the look and feel of a golf outing where the boys are out to have some fun on the course.

The only thing that seems to be missing is a cart girl delivering Bud Lights to the players as they make their way around the course.

It does not have the look and feel of a competitive golf tournament.

Of course, how could it be when most of the players got big guaranteed sums to join LIV and even the last place finisher collects $120,000 no matter what they shoot.

That is what Sihwan Kim received for finishing in last place (48th) at last week's LIV event in Orlando by shooting +13.

These are the nine players who finished at the bottom at that event.

Source: https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2023/04/02/2023-liv-golf-orlando-final-results-prize-money-payout-leaderboard-and-how-much-each-golfer-won-128797/


Watson, Mickelson, Oosthuizen and Garcia were at the bottom of the field in LIV Orlando and are all in the Masters field.

None of these guys appear to be at the top of their game right now.

LIV is probably going to need to rely on guys like Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka. Dustin Johnson or Bryson De Chambeau to put on a good showing to burnish its image that it is more than an exhibition tour.

There is no better platform to do that than The Masters.

However, are LIV players ready for top flight competition when the stakes are high?

That is a big question.

LIV has only had three events in the last five months.

It is difficult to say that these guys are battle tested right now.

Are the LIV players ready to play at a high level in a high stakes environment?

That will make The Masters this year even more interesting than usual.

The PGA Tour vs. LIV Golf is an interesting subplot that might add a significant boost to the tv ratings this year if a couple of LIV golfers are in contention on Sunday.

It may not be life or death but it is very, very important for LIV.

It is a chance for LIV to change the narrative and put more focus on their fledging tour. 

It is a chance to demonstrate legitimacy to the golf fan who seems skeptical of the product right now.

However, a poor showing by its players will further feed the narrative and push LIV deeper down a path of irrelevancy.

In that case, the Saudis better be prepared to keep pouring more and more money into LIV.

And LIV players better make sure that the money they have received is locked away in a very safe place. 

Monday, April 3, 2023

What Next For Trump?

One of the big stories last week was the indictment of Donald Trump by a New York grand jury based on allegations of fraud related to so-called hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign.

The exact charges are not known at this time as the indictment is sealed.


Credit: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-indicted-in-manhattan-first-ex-president-to-be-charged-with-a-crime/


The indictment has resulted in big headlines but what does it mean?

First, most independent legal analysts suggest that New York District Attorney has embarked on a political prosecution rather than a legal one.

What is known about the facts in the case make the charges incredibly flimsy.

Payments made to Stormy Daniels were made almost seven years by former Trump associate Michael Cohen.

The payments in questions were already investigated by the Federal Election Commission and the U.S. Justice Department who declined to pursue any charges.

The Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg, has political ambitions to run for Governor or Senator in New York.

Trump only received 14.5% of the vote in Manhattan in 2020. He got 23% overall in New York City.

It simply is not bad politics to indict Trump in Manhattan.

However, is this the way justice is supposed to work in the United States of America?

And with the vote totals against him in 2020 how is it possible for Trump to get a fair trial of his peers in New York City?

By comparison, Hillary Clinton's campaign paid millions of dollars to craft a fake Russian dossier against Trump in the 2016 election and hid the payments as "legal fees" in federal election campaign finance reports. 

The Clinton campaign was actually fined by the Federal Election Commission for the fraud.


Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/30/politics/clinton-dnc-steele-dossier-fusion-gps/index.html


The FEC voted 4-1 that there was no evidence that either Trump or his campaign "knowingly and willfully" violated campaign finance laws. That was not the case with Clinton and the DNC.


Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/552271-fec-drops-investigation-into-trump-hush-money-payments/


The last I checked Hillary Clinton has not been indicted for anything either.

An interesting legal argument is if this case goes forward on the basis that state charges can be brought over what is essentially a federal issue, does that  then open the door for a state like Wyoming, South Dakota or another red state to do the same thing to Hillary Clinton or another Democrat?

Yes, we are atop a very slippery slope.

Second, what does this mean for Trump's 2024 election prospects?

I predicted almost two years ago that the Democrats could be expected to do something like this in light of the hatred (and fear) they have of the man.

Yes, there really is a Trump Derangement Syndrome infecting many people.They are not all just Democrats either.

This is what I wrote in July, 2021 assessing Trump's potential prospects in 2024.

There is little question that the Democrats are going to turn over every rock and throw everything they can at Trump and his family the next few years.  They clearly live in fear of the man. They may get something that sticks and get people to believe that it is more than political retribution. If they do, Trump will not be viable in 2024 as his political brand will be permanently damaged. Once you lose trust you don't get it back.

The question is whether this will be viewed as a legitimate prosecution by the voters?

It does not look that way from what I know right now.

It may curry favor with the hard core base of the Democrat party.

However, how does it play with other voters?

If the Republican primary was held right now I would most likely vote for someone other than Trump.

As I have written before, there has been no President in my lifetime who was better aligned between what he promised he would do when he campaigned and what he actually did as President.

Despite the bluster and over the top rhetoric, it is hard to find fault with how he governed. There was nothing unhinged about any decisions he made while in office.

However, there is a good argument that it is time for someone younger to be on the ticket in 2024. Trump will be 79 years old in 2025. That is even truer if Biden is the Democrat nominee.

Trump's antics also get in the way of the message. Is there someone who will govern like Trump without the drama?

That being said, this prosecution, as well as the FBI raid over the "classified documents" at Mar-a-Lago, the disclosures about the collusion between the FBI and Twitter and other social media companies to censor the Hunter Biden laptop story during the 2016 election clearly shows that there is a double standard in place in the United States.

If Donald Trump is a crook show me he is a crook with something that does not look like a political prosecution.

Has there been anyone in the world that has been under more scrutiny over the last seven years? 

Is there anything in Trump's life or business dealings that hasn't been examined in microscopic detail in  hopes to get rid of him over that time?

This is the best they can do in indicting Trump for a crime?

All of this reminds me of of this quote by the head of Joseph Stalin's Secret Police in the Soviet Union.



Beria would target Stalin's enemies first and then fabricate the crime. You were presumed guilty and the blanks were filled in later.

It is far different than the presumption of innocence that is supposed to be an underlying principle of the American justice system.

Of course, it does not seem that Nancy Pelosi believes that applies to Donald Trump.



Does anyone believe that Twitter would have added this context before Elon Musk bought it?

Right now the political prosecutions of Trump appears to be making him stronger.

How else can you explain this reversal in polling between Trump and DeSantis since the beginning of this year?



Of course, this poll is only of Republican voters in the primary.

Can Trump prevail in the general election with Independents and suburban women voters?

The conventional argument is that he cannot. However, there is a lot of polling to suggest that Trump has the unique ability to attract disaffected voters to the polls that might otherwise not vote at all. There is evidence that this ability outweighs his other disadvantages.

I still stand by the prediction I made in January that I believe the odds that both Trump and Biden will be on the ballot in the general election in 2024 to be less than 1%.

Perhaps one of the two will gain the nomination for their party but I still give that no better than 50/50 odds.

Of course, making Presidential predictions this far out have proven to be a fool's errand more than once.

Trump had not even announced he was running for President at this point before the 2016 election.

Barack Obama had announced he was running by this time in 2007 against Hillary Clinton but he was polling below 20%.

Two years out did anyone believe that a peanut farmer from Georgia would be on the ballot in 1976 let alone become President?

We have also seen several establishment favorites at this time barely capture a handful of delegates (John Connally, Jeb Bush come to mind) when primary voting started.

We know what happened in all of those races which few expected.

A lot can happen over the next year when the primary season really heats up.

That is even more true this year than it has ever been before with the unprecedented indictment of not only a former President but a candidate for President as well.

How will it all play out?

I have no idea.

However, it promises to be an interesting and entertaining year if you are interested in politics.

Fasten your seat belts.

Friday, March 31, 2023

There Are No Easy Answers

Every time we have a horrific mass shooting like we had in Nashville this week it is quickly followed by those who want to point to a specific cause.

Those on the left are quick to place the entire blame on "assault weapons".

One of Joe Biden's favorite talking points since he ran for President was that he wanted to ban "assault weapons".


Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/27/biden-assault-weapons-ban-nashville-shooting-00089050

However, the problem is that it appears that the term "assault weapon" is a difficult term to define.

Biden's Secretary of Homeland Security could not define what it was this week in a Senate hearing.


Source: https://twitter.com/2Aupdates/status/1641194137507512320


Neither could two nominees that Biden put forth to be the ATF Director when questioned in their Senate confirmation hearings in the last two years.






Therein lies the problem.

Machine guns and other military types of automatic weapons are already illegal and have been since the 1930's. In fact, the use of these weapons by gangsters such as Machine Gun Kelly, Baby Face Nelson and John Dillinger led to the passage of the National Firearms Act in 1934 that made them illegal in the U.S.

The shooter in Nashville is reported to have used an AR-15.

This is not an automatic weapon as they are generally defined. An AR-15 does not automatically fire multiple rounds with one squeeze of the trigger. It requires one pull of the trigger for every round fired. 

Semiautomatic guns such as the AR-15 are widely owned by Americans. It is reported that there are 100 million semiautomatic handguns and 40 million semiautomatic rifles in private hands.

An AR-15 typically is configured with a 20 or 30 round magazine. However, it can also accommodate 5 and 10 round magazines as well. The popular Wild West gun, the Colt six-shooter, fired six rounds. Could that be considered an assault weapon? Where do we draw the line?

Does anyone also seriously believe that a law could be passed that 140 million guns owned by Americans would be declared illegal and required to be turned in or confiscated?

It would not seem so considering there is a 2nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that is part of our Bill of Rights.

In 1994 a federal law did ban the new manufacture of certain types of semiautomatic weapons and larger magazines but Congress did not see fit to extend the ban when it expired in 2004. There apparently was not enough evidence to indicate that the ban had been effective in the decade after its enactment.

The fact also remains that there were less than 500 homicides in the United States in 2021 (last year data is available) in which a rifle was the weapon used (automatic, semiautomatic, shotgun or otherwise).

That is less than half of the number of homicides caused by knives or fists.

We also hear people state that we never saw these types of mass shootings in the past.

It is true that the frequency has increased.

However, it is not true that mass shootings are a new phenomenon.

In fact, here is a graphic that shows some of the mass shootings that took place in the United States dating back to 1891. Notice that even the 1891 shootings involved school settings.


Source: http://behindthetower.org/a-brief-history-of-mass-shootings


This history of mass shootings also does not include what is still the most deadly attack on a school in U.S.history known as the "Bath School Massacre"  A series of explosions were set by a troubled man in 1927 which killed 38 schoolchildren and 6 adults.


Source: https://www.mlive.com/news/2017/05/10_things_you_probably_didnt_k.html


Unfortunately, there have always been demented, deranged and delusional people in our midst.

The problem today is that the actions of these maniacs are amplified by media and on social media which gives these people the attention many of them desperately crave.

For example, here are some messages that the Nashville killer sent to a friend the morning of the shootings.

The 911 call to police reporting the shootings came in exactly 15 minutes later.

Note the reference to being on the news and the fact that "more than enough evidence" has been left behind to explain the shooter's reasons for all of this.

Notice as well that the killer refers to themselves as both Audrey and Aiden in the messages to their friend.




Let's hope we hear more about the evidence left behind and the reasons the shooter did this.

However, it is difficult to imagine that the killer's transgenderism did not have a significant role in the mental and emotional issues that led to the commission of this heinous act.

Although you can be sure that there will be many in the mainstream media and progressive establishment that will do everything to downplay that angle. If it does surface they will argue that the shooter was pushed over the edge because they were discriminated against and marginalized by a cisgender society.

In fact, both The New York Times and USA Today issued statements effectively apologizing for referring to the killer as a "woman" because that is how the police identified the assailant. They stated that the police had misidentified her? him? I guess the police made the mistake of looking at her body after they had to shoot her in the school as three children and three adults lay dead because of her actions.

The media is concerned about offending the dead killer by misidentifying her? Really?

The sad reality is that the Nashville shooting is evidence that attempting to treat transgenderism as normal human behavior is dangerous.

These people need our help and compassion. However, they should not be celebrated nor their behavior affirmed as normal.

It is beyond me how we have gotten to this place.

If the DNA and physical attributes of the body do not match how the human thinks or feels about themself it is a mental issue, not a biological defect.

This reality had been accepted and established for centuries.

The human mind is very powerful. It can make us believe many things that are not true. 

For example, somatoparaphrenia is a type of mental illness or delusion where one denies ownership of a limb or an entire side of one's body.

We don't allow this person to amputate their own arm or leg merely because in their mind they do not believe the reality of their own biology.

The same is true of those who suffer with anorexia. These individuals starve themselves as they believe in their mind that they are overweight. We don't ignore the biology, agree with them and take their nourishment away to cater to their delusion. We treat their mental illness.

When it comes to transgender issues the thing I find interesting is that all of the work done today is to deny the biology and accept how the person "feels" or "identifies".

It used to be established medical practice in transgender issues to work on treating the mind rather than attempting to change the biology of the body.

Medical interventions today are focused on attempting to alter the biology. (Testosterone levels, gender reassignment surgery, etc)

That was not always the case. The prevailing medical opinion for centuries was represented by the views of Dr. Paul McHugh who was the psychiatrist-in-chief at Johns Hopkins University who believed that transgenderism was a "mental disorder" and sex change was "biologically impossible."



If the Covid pandemic taught us anything it was that the virus was not the only thing that was contagious.

Contagion also drives a great deal of human behavior.

The herd instinct is as strong in humans as it is in other mammals.

It was apparent in almost every response to Covid whether it was justified based on the science, facts or not.

I have written before about the seeming contagion of LBGTQ+ among young people, particularly women.

For example, how do you explain this?

1.7% of those born before 1946 identify as LBGT and 2.7% of Baby Boomers but 20% of Gen Z so identify?



Has something been introduced into the environment?

Did the hard wiring of our genetics change in the span of a decade or two?

Is it something else?

Is this evidence of mental abnormality rather than a physical one?

Why is it important to ask tough questions about this?

Consider this fact and what it suggests.




Is social contagion driving this?

I found this Google Trends data to be interesting when considering this question.

Compare how often the term "anorexia" was a topic of a Google search compared to "transgender" since 2004.


Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=anorexia,transgender&hl=en


Many young women are uncomfortable as their bodies change and mature. They can be insecure and vulnerable regarding their body image.

Social media has made this even more difficult for young women.

Have rates of anorexia decreased as transgender ideology has taken hold?

I have not seen any reliable data that this is the case but the trend above may warrant some additional study.

At least anecdotally it doesn't seem that we hear about anorexia and other eating disorders as much as we used to.

The bigger point here is that what we saw in Nashville and what we have seen in other mass shootings is the result of a number of factors.

Access to guns is certainly part of it. However, the media world we live in today and the deterioration of mental health are much bigger factors in the overall mosaic.

It is also true that in a free society we also always have to balance individual rights and the common good.

Do we take away 100 million guns from law abiding citizens to prevent something like what happened in Nashville?

Do we lock someone up with emotional and mental problems like that of the Nashville killer on the possibility that they may do something heinous? This is what was done fairly routinely a century ago.

Do we attempt to censor and limit the reach of social media?

Where do we attempt to draw the line on any of these?

There are no easy answers.

If someone suggest there is, you know they are a providing a political solution rather than a real, practical answer.

That simply does not exist if we want to continue living in a free society.

Monday, March 27, 2023

Elephant in the Room

For much of history giving birth to a child was one of the most dangerous threats to a woman's health as she would face during her life.

This excerpt from an article "Childbirth in Early America" provides some context.

During the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, between 1 percent and 1.5 percent of all births ended in the mother's death as a result of exhaustion, dehydration, infection, hemorrhage, or convulsions. Since the typical mother gave birth to between five and eight children, her lifetime chances of dying in childbirth ran as high as 1 in 8. This meant that if a woman had eight female friends, it was likely that one might die in childbirth.

The risks to women improved dramatically when women began having birth in hospitals under close medical supervision attended by a physician.

However, the trend in births from home to hospital did not begin until the early 20th century.

In fact, Jimmy Carter (elected 1976) was the first U.S. President born in a hospital (1924).

His successor Ronald Reagan (elected 1980, born 1911) was not.

Reagan's sucessor, George H.W. Bush (also born in 1924) was also not born in a hospital. He was the last President to be born at home.

Of the 46 U.S. Presidents to date, only Carter, Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden have been born in a hospital---six in all.

In researching this topic I was also interested to find that health outcomes for mother and child did not necessarily improve at the outset when there were more births in hospital in the 1920's than at home.

In fact, mortality rates for birth injuries actually increased 40%-50% from 1915 and 1929 as hospital birth rates increased during that period.

At the same time, the maternal mortality rates for women who gave birth in the hospital did not begin declining until the 1930's when sulfa drugs were introduced to treat infections.

Why did birth mortality increase while there was no improvement in maternal mortality when women first starting going to the hospital from their homes for birth?

The answer appears to be that it was caused by operative INTERVENTION by physicians in the hospital.

While attempting to help during the birth process doctors unintentionally caused more harm to the mother, and especially to the baby, with forceps and cesarean deliveries, which increased the risks of birth injuries and infections.

Hospitals became safer places for birth in the 1930's and beyond as sulfa drugs could deal with infections and doctors learned to be more judicious in avoiding injuries to newborns in the birth process.

Why do I bring up this history?

I recently saw this headline.

Source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/maternal-deaths-surge-to-highest-rate-in-60-years-in-us-report-3871270

The United States experienced one of the highest rates of maternal death in its history in 2021, according to a recent report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The report also stated that black women experience more than twice as many maternal deaths as white women.

A total of 1,205 women died in the United States during pregnancy or shortly after giving birth in 2021, up from 861 in 2020 and 754 in 2019, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) said.


Maternal deaths were 60% higher in 2021 than they were in 2019!

What caused that?

Most of the stories about this increase suggest Covid as the the direct or indirect cause for the surge in maternal deaths.

However, Covid was also present in 2020 when maternal deaths only increased modestly from 2019.

Maternal deaths in 2021 were up over 40% from what they were in 2020.

However, there were also a lot of vaccinations being administered to pregnant women in 2021 on the recommendation of the CDC.

Some question if this might be a factor.



87% of women of childbearing age received at least one dose on the Covid vaccine .

Over 70% of women that age received both doses.

Most of those doses were received by August, 2021.


Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographics-trends


I don't know what caused this spike in deaths.

However, shouldn't someone be looking into it and informing us?

What is frustrating to me is that the CDC should have the definitive data on all of this so there is no question about whether it is Covid , the vaccines or something else altogether.

The CDC should know exactly how many of those who died had Covid or who had it previously.

The CDC should know exactly how many of the women who died during childbirth had been vaccinated.

The fact that the CDC releases a report on a marked increase in maternal deaths in 2021 and ignores the elephant in the room speaks volumes in my mind.



What is going on?

You have to wonder if what reporter Matt Taibbi found in the Twitter files might be at play?

Taibbi reported last week that Twitter censored true content or facts as "misinformation" at the behest of government intermediaries because it might contribute to vaccine hesitancy.





In other words, let's be sure that people don't have all the facts for informed consent because they might make a decision that we don't like.

It is important to keep all of this in context.

Even with the increase in maternal morality in 2021, we are talking about a maternal death rate of 32.9 deaths per 100,000 live births. In the 1700's, that number was at least 1,000 per 100,000.

For further context, the death rate from Covid for a woman of child-bearing age in the United States since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 has averaged about 14.6 per 100,000 per year during the three years of the pandemic. (26,203 Covid deaths for 18-44 year old women since 2020 out of 60 million women in total for that age group in the United States).

It all means that a young woman today has infinitely better odds of living a long life compared to that 18th century woman 

Finally, a Fox News story on the same CDC report on maternal maternity also presented another factoid that I found interesting about the health of pregnant women.

Only about 40% of U.S. women who gave birth in 2019 had favorable heart health before getting pregnant, according to a new report by the American Heart Association.

If only 40% of U.S. women who give birth have favorable heart health before getting pregnant, that means 60% of those who get pregnant do not have favorable heart health.

60%!!!

We are talking about women who are almost all 45 years of age or younger.

The CDC reported in 2016 that the average age 20-39 year old woman weighed 167.6 pounds.

That is about the same weight that a man of the same age weighed in the 1960's.

The average woman (and man) of today weigh 30 pounds more than they did then.

60% of women between the ages of 20-34 are considered overweight or obese.

68% of women 35-44 are in the same category according to the CDC.

Credit: https://www.healthline.com/health/womens-health/average-weight-for-women#average-weight-around-the-world
 

Increased weight (before pregnancy) may be the most important reason of all on why women have increased risks from childbirth, Covid or anything else today.

There is far more health risks from additional weight than almost anything else they might confront.

However, does it surprise anyone that this topic has gotten about one-millionth the amount of attention that Covid, the vaccines or anything else has over the last three years?

Is that the real elephant in the room?