I prefer to lay out facts. Put those facts in the context of the issue and let those facts lead to a conclusion.
Casey Stengel, the great baseball philosopher, said it pretty well.
Never make predictions, especially about the future.
If I forget that advice and make a prediction I hope that what Daniel Kahneman, the father of behavioral economics, said is true.
Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
You may not remember my predictions. The problem is that I remember them.
And I don't like to be wrong.
One of my biggest failed predictions was when I predicted Mitt Romney would defeat Barack Obama in 2012. I said it would be close but I believed that Romney would win in a squeaker.
That error caused me to forego making any prediction in 2016. However, I laid out the facts on how Trump could win. Those facts did work in Trump's favor. He was able to win an election that most people gave him no chance.
As I have written before, this election will be decided on turnout. Will the traditional Democratic constituencies--African-Americans, Millennials, Single Women---turnout like they did for Barack Obama? If they do, Hillary Clinton will win. If they don't, Donald Trump can close the history books on the Clintons and The White House.
At least, I thought that would be the end of hearing anything about Hillary Clinton. Here is what I also thought would occur if Hillary lost the election.
I also know that if Donald Trump defeats Hillary Clinton we will see unbounded anger and antagonism directed at the Clintons by liberal Democrats. They will be seething that Hillary could have allowed Donald Trump to keep the Democrats from winning The White House and controlling the Supreme Court. Hell hath no fury like a scorned liberal Democrat!
Little did I know how adept the Clintons and the Democrats would be in blaming the Russians for Trump's victory rather than Hillary's own ineptitude and corruption.
I had already figured out before Trump was inaugurated that my prediction was not looking very good. However, I still had hope that the tables would eventually turn on Hillary.
It still baffles me that Democrats are spending all of their time blaming the Russians for Trump's victory and not focusing any of their anger at Hillary and John Podesta. I still think that I might be proven right on this one in time. However, it looks like a very poor prediction right now. I should have considered my own advice in these pages before I wrote that.
Almost three years later, not only is Hillary not taking much blame, but rumors are swirling that she may be getting ready to throw her hat in the ring for 2020. Bernie's health problems and Biden's problems involving his son with Ukraine and China is making another run very tempting for Hillary.
Talk about getting it wrong!
One prediction I was right about is what would we would see from Congress if the Democrats won the House and/or Senate in the 2018 midterm elections.
For anyone who is complaining about the circus we are seeing in Washington right now let it not be forgotten that it was all avoidable.
If the Republicans had retained the House the Congress would actually be working on real issues. We might have some actual work on legislation rather than investigations and impeachment inquiries.
Here is what I wrote on the eve of the 2018 midterms in what I called a "Consequential Election".
We are once again being told that 2018 is the most consequential election of our lifetimes.
Despite the hype, that may actually be the case this year.
If we think we see chaos in Washington now, think for a second what things will look like with a Democrat Congress.
I can assure you that there will be almost nothing of value done legislatively for the next two years with the Democrats in control.
The Kavanaugh confirmation hearing should give you an idea of what to expect. It will be ugly and it will be relentless.
If Democrats make inroads in November with their radical political agenda it will further embolden them. It will undoubtedly make things even worse than they are today. The political war will continue and intensify. The divide will only get larger. You can count on it.
In addition, there seems to be many Democrats who believe that the 2016 election of Donald Trump was an aberration. It was random and not real. They can't believe that the "progress" made with Obama could possibly be undone so quickly. That is why they want to double down on an agenda that is even more progressive and radical. They cannot believe the mainstream is not with them.
Talk about getting it right!
Yes, I was right but I sincerely wish I had been wrong.
The country deserves so much better right now.
Elections really do have consequences.
I just wish the Democrats respected that fact.