Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The Impeachment Gift To Trump

The House of Representatives voted today to impeach President Trump for the second time in the last two years.

The impeachment took place even though Trump had less than seven days remaining in his Presidency and the Senate has stated it would not even begin a trial on the impeachment charge until after he left  office.

The entire impeachment investigation and inquiry in the House took 8 hours.

Compare that to previous impeachments.

The Democrats really investigated this and thought this through, didn't they?

The reasoning of the Democrats seems to have been done to damage Trump politically and personally so that he can never run for the Presidency again.

It really makes no sense. If Trump is so bad, so dangerous, and so discredited, why would the Democrats be worried about Trump having any chance at running for President again?

Clearly, the Democrats are very afraid about having the next few years compared to the Trump years and not looking very good by comparison. I understand where they are coming from.

However, I believe this fear-based decision has caused them to make a huge error

I think the Democrats have actually provided Trump with a gift of gigantic proportions with the impeachment.

In my mind this could prove to be one of the most disastrous political maneuvers in history.

Why do I say that?

Although Trump still enjoys a lot of support among Republican voters he no longer has the support he once did among this group or with Independents.

A recent poll showed that 91% of Trump voters in 2020 stated they would have still voted for him again even after the events of the last week. However, losing 10% of his voters would translate into a landslide loss in another election right now.

In marketing terms, Trump would be considered to be a damaged brand right now.

The violence at the Capitol on January 6 hurt him substantially.

A big reason for the damage is because the narrative has been spun that there was no case for election fraud. All of it was a a lie that Trump fed to his supporters. There was no evidence. 50 courts rejected the claims, etc. Therefore, there was never a basis to challenge the election results. Trump should have conceded long ago and gone quietly into the night. He incited his supporters to become "terrorists" for no reason other than to foment an insurrection.

The entire argument that the Democrats have against Trump is based on the supposed fact that he incited insurrection through a false narrative.

However, what if it is later proven that it was not a false allegation? What if there was election fraud to such an extent that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were not the rightful winners of the election?

I have argued in these pages before that I could never foresee Trump conceding based on the facts at hand. I fully expected him to continue to investigate the election results even if he was not able to prove that before Inauguration Day. It meant too much to both his future political and business interests.

The reality is that Donald Trump really had no choice but to go "all-in" on this. It is even truer today than it was on January 6. The Democrats and the media are intent on ruining this man and his family in every possible respect. Donald Trump is in a war and being attacked on all sides. It is literally a life or death struggle for Trump and his family.

Before today, Trump's challenge was going to be how he was ever going to get the forum and the public and media attention to prove his case. It would not have been easy. Perhaps he could have filed some civil lawsuits in the swing states and claim that his rights had been violated in some way. However, it would have been a long and arduous fight.

The House impeachment gift changes all of that. 

Trump now gets his "day in court".  If I am defending Trump my defense starts with a detailed review of all the charges of election fraud. As I have written before, I don't know if all the evidence that the Trump team has advanced stands up to scrutiny.  However, this is the type of forum Trump needs to make his case. 

Trump also gets it with all of the American people paying attention. If the election fraud allegations prove true how can any of this be called an insurrection? The insurrection was actually attempted by the other side. Those domestic "terrorists" start looking a little different as well.

The narrative supporting a protest or riot is always important. That is one the reasons that BLM has gotten cover from the media. Yes, it might have been violent in some respects but it was a "righteous" cause. With a righteous cause terrorists become patriots. Look no further than our own American Revolution.

Even if all the allegations do not hold up, some might, and the legitimacy of the Biden/Harris administration is going to be harmed in the process.

The impeachment trial is also going to take precious time away from confirmation hearings on executive appointments, delay their legislative agenda and put more focus on Trump when they should want it on Biden.

The bottom line is that Donald Trump does not assume much risk at all in an impeachment trial. He is backed up against the wall right now anyway and has a tough road back to regaining political legitimacy and in protecting his business empire from further assaults. 

Consider his upsides. In all probability he will be acquitted. He might be vindicated. He might actually be able to convince the American people the election was stolen.

The Democrats are exposing themselves to substantial risks in all of this.

What do they gain? They might legally prevent Trump from running again but he will be 78 years old in 2024 and that might not happen anyway. They are going to strip away his pension and travel allowance. So what? Trump worked for no pay anyway.

In their anger and rage over Donald Trump, the Democrats seem to have lost all sensibility.

They have just handed Donald Trump the greatest gift they could give him right now.

Will the Democrats come to their senses before the Senate trial gets underway? 

If Joe Biden were smart he would come out and ask the Senate to dismiss the impeachment charge for unity and the good of the country.

Is he that smart? Would his party's supporters even permit this if he was? 

In the meantime, those who supported impeachment today may want to reflect on this verse from the Bible.

Whoever digs a pit will fall into it;

    if someone rolls a stone, it will roll back on them.

-Proverbs 26;27 (NIV)

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