Friday, January 7, 2022

Is This The Way The Covid Chaos Will End?

Everyone wants to know when and how the Covid chaos will end?

Who would have bet on this ending a year ago?

This was the headline I saw last week in the Times of Israel. 


In light of the lack of immediate rise in serious illness, Channel 12 news reported Tuesday evening that senior officials in the Health Ministry have recently raised the option of switching to a “mass infection model.”

That would mirror Sweden’s policy in the early stage of the pandemic, which saw the country elect not to impose major restrictions on people who aren’t in risk groups, in a bid to continue normal life while eventually reaching herd immunity.

In other words, Israel would presumably throw in the towel on lockdowns, travel restrictions, mass vaccination, booster shots and all the rest for the general population and let the virus be the virus.

This would be a remarkable development if it occurred considering Israel's approach to this point.

Israel was the first country in the world to start the mass vaccination of its people.

It cut an exclusive deal with Pfizer for enough doses for all its citizens when the Pfizer shot was under development.

Israel started mass vaccinations in mid-December, 2020 and in just over a month it had vaccinated 82% of its population.

Israel subsequently started booster shots for its population before any other country in the world. Almost half of the population has received a booster shot.

Israel has already recommended that everyone over age 60 and health care workers should get a 2nd booster---four in all in just one year.

It has been reported that Israel has already purchased and has on order 60 million total doses of Covid vaccines.

The population of Israel is 9 million---that equals about 7 vaccine doses for every man, woman and child in the country

Why is Israel even considering such a change in policy.

They are looking at the same vertical trajectory in Covid cases that we are seeing in the United States, Europe and elsewhere.

At the current rate of the Omicron surge in Israel, we will be seeing another record number of new cases in Israel.

This is despite the fact that Israel has vaccinated and boosted its population earlier and more aggressively than almost any other country in the world.

It is worth noting that soon after Israel started its mass vaccination program in December, 2020, and its booster program in late July, 2020, cases spiked to new record peaks. Is this just a coincidence?

The reports say they are not there yet on reversing course but the fact that Israel is even considering it says a lot at this juncture.

Israel might also be looking at what is transpiring in Iceland right now.

Iceland is another country that was very aggressive in its vaccination policy. Many experts hailed the way Iceland navigated the pandemic.

Iceland is more vaccinated than Israel is.

83% of the entire population is fully vaccinated with two doses of the Covid vaccine.

59% of the population has received a booster. That is the highest percentage in the world

It is not looking very good for Iceland right now despite all of those jabs.

Cases in Iceland are almost double what we are seeing in the United States in early January, 2022.

Iceland is also seeing more Covid infections per capita among fully vaccinated adults than those unvaccinated. 


The current rate is 5,158/100,000 for fully vaccinated compared to 2,755 for those unvaccinated. If you add the infection rate for boosted adults (1,846/100.000) to the fully vaccinated rate, those who are vaccinated are 2.5 times as likely to be testing positive for Covid right now.

All of this should give pause to anyone who has placed all of their bets on the vaccines to stop Covid and return as to any semblance of normal.

Do I think Israel will move to a "herd immunity" policy?

I would consider it unlikely for the simple reason that it would mean the experts would have to admit they were wrong.

As we know, that is extraordinarily difficult to do. No one wants to admit they were wrong. That is even truer when it would require "the experts" to humble themselves. Throw in the fact about how high the costs that have been inflicted on the world by those decisions, and it seems an impossibility. In effect, it would be admitting to the greatest public policy error in human history.

However, considering the respect most of the world has for Israel's scientific knowledge and prowess, it might represent a turning point in how other countries approach the virus if Israel did something so dramatic.

Is this the way the Covid chaos will end?

Nothing can surprise me anymore about anything to do with Covid.

I will end with this.

This week Idaho has had the lowest Covid cases per capita in the United States.

The bottom five on The New York Times Covid tracker pages for current cases per 100,000 is below.

Source: New York Times Covid Tracker, January 6, 2022

At the same time, Idaho also has the lowest % of its population in the nation fully vaccinated.

Who had that on their Covid betting card a year ago?

Or even three months ago?

I know Tony Fauci didn't.

I will say it again.

Nothing can surprise me with Covid 


  1. Love this blog, read every post - Mr. Beeken, this is Danny Baxter. I was friends with Brandon in Mountain Lakes back in the 90s! The only thing I wonder about with respect to Idaho is the relative population density per capita as compared to the population density per capita in other states. Curious as to your thoughts on that. Regardless it does not seem that the vaccines are performing as advertised. Great quote from Dr. Robert Malone "First time in history that the ineffectiveness of a medicine is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"

    1. Danny,
      Good to hear from you and I am pleased you enjoy the blog. Population density may be a factor. However, I believe that Idaho has lower cases per capita right now because two months ago it had the highest cases per capita in US. Same for Maine which is 2nd from bottom right now but was leading the nation in per capita cases 6 weeks ago. They both are now at the bottom. Natural immunity looks to be much more effective than vaccine immunity.
      In addition, as to the population density question, Teton County, WY has the second highest per capita case rate in the nation right now. It only has 6 residents per square mile. Idaho is at 20 per square mile. This seems to argue against population density explaining Idaho right now.

      Did you find out about BeeLine from Neil? Pass it on. We need more critical thinkers in NJ.

    2. Thanks for the reply and I am in total agreement re: natural immunity. I did hear about the blog from Neil! Love it. I live in Pittsburgh now, we need more critical thinkers here too!