What if Covid had never happened?
What if the election coming up in less than two weeks did not have any global pandemic hanging over it?
What if the economy and unemployment rate were exactly as they were at the beginning of they year?
Where do you think Donald Trump would be in the polls right now?
That is a question I have asked some of my friends.
It is an interesting question as it seems that most of Joe Biden's campaign is focused on three things.
1. Donald Trump did a terrible job on Covid and Biden would have done much better.
2. This is Donald Trump's economy.
3. Biden is a decent guy and Trump is deranged. More than ever we just have to return to normal and Joe is normal.
I am sure we will see these themes repeated over and over by Joe Biden in Thursday's debate.
There really isn't much more in Joe Biden's arguments to be President.
Of course, it is not easy to pick any real themes since we see and hear so little of Joe Biden on the campaign trail.
Let's look at each of these.
The Democrats continually state that Donald Trump has done a horrible job on Covid and has killed thousands.
We are told that Biden would have done a better job. He would follow "the science".
However, Trump closed the United States off from China in late January and Europe in early March despite scientists like Dr. Fauci, the WHO and others telling him that he should not do it.
Biden was on record at the time of the China decision that Trump was a racist and xenophile for doing it.
Was Trump right or the scientists?
Trump followed the advice of scientists and shut down the entire US economy in the middle of March even though it was clear he had questions about the decision. He extended the lockdown again at the end of March when the scientists told him to do it.
Bear in mind that Trump did this despite the fact that doing so was extremely detrimental to his own personal financial interests. Shutting the economy when you are in the hotel, entertainment and commercial real estate business is not a winning strategy.
Never mind that the European strategy that Joe Biden likes to point to looks like it is failing right now in every place other than Sweden which supposedly is not following "the science".
New daily cases in the UK.
New daily cases in France.
In fact, there are three times as many new daily confirmed cases in Europe right now as there are in North America according to the most recent data. 47% of all new cases in the world this week have been from Europe. Only 15% from North America.
|Percentage of new daily Covid cases by region|
One of the most ridiculous claims of the Biden campaign is that what we are experiencing now is the "Trump economy".
They were even running a political ad that had to be one of the most disingenuous ads I had ever seen in which a bar owner in Ann Arbor, Michigan claimed that it was Donald Trump's fault that he is closed.
The music is silent and the beer is stagnant at the Blind Pig in Ann Arbor.
A new Joe Biden presidential campaign ad features Blind Pig co-owner Joe Malcoun, who blames the businesses economic inactivity on President Donald Trump.
“For 50 years, the Blind Pig has been open and crowded, but right now it’s an empty room,” says Malcoun in the minute-long ad posted to YouTube on Thursday, Oct. 15. “This is the reality of Trump’s Covid response.
“We don’t know how much longer we can survive not having any revenue.”
You may not be able to see this ad now because the Biden campaign has pulled it.
Click here if the video does not play in your browser.
This ad was pulled yesterday because it was entirely bogus. The bar owner was actually a software entrepreneur who owned the bar as a hobby. He was also a big Democrat donor and a big supporter of Governor Whitmer. The entire ad was based on lies.
Of course, the truth is that it is not Donald Trump who is responsible for that bar in Michigan or others being being empty. That is the direct result of the policies of Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer who has locked down Michigan much harder than most other states.
Compare the unemployment rates in states with Democrat governors and strict lockdown measures with those with Republican governors and more realistic Covid mitigation measures.
Recent data based on the latest unemployment numbers indicates that unemployment is 59% higher in blue states compared to red states.
Of the ten states with the lowest unemployment rates, nine are led by Republican governors. The inverse is true of the ten states with the highest unemployment rates, nine of which are run by Democrat governors.
It is also worth comparing GDP growth in the United States against other countries around the world that have been affected by Covid.
The United States has actually fared better than most other major economies in the world. This also does not include the third quarter which should show further improvement due to many states reopening their economies.
It does remain quite interesting how China has fared in all of this.
The virus started in China. It appears likely it escaped from a lab in that country. It may have been an accident. It may have been intentional.
Since that occurred the virus has shut down almost the entire world except one place.
Curious, isn't it?
Which Presidential candidate do you think is more likely to hold China to account?
Biden is decent, Trump is deranged
At its core, this is really what Biden's main argument is that he should be President and Donald Trump should not.
It is the culmination of four years of messaging by the Democrats and the mainstream media that Donald Trump is unfit to be President.
It started during the last campaign and the narrative has not changed for four years. It has continued through claims of Russian collusion in the 2016 election, a two year independent counsel investigation that returned nothing and an impeachment.
Never mind that almost everything the Democrats and the mainstream media said about what would happen if Trump became President has been totally disproven. He was going to wreck the economy. He was going to put us in a war. He was going to take away civil liberties. The truth is the exact opposite in every case.
The narrative about Biden is that he is a decent man. He is dedicated to his family. He cares deeply about you and our country.
Let's unpack this as we look at the revelations and allegations surrounding what is on his son's laptop.
Is Joe Biden a decent man?
I have great sympathy for some of the personal challenges that Joe Biden has had to go through in his life. He lost his wife and infant daughter in a car accident shortly after his 1972 election to the United States Senate when he was 30 years old.
He was a widower before he was even sworn in with two young sons, Beau and Hunter, who had survived the auto accident.
It could not have been easy.
His older son, Beau, seems to have been selected to carry on his father's political legacy. Beau ran for and was elected Attorney General of Delaware in 2006. Beau announced his intention to run for Governor of Delaware in 2016. Unfortunately, brain cancer would end the young Biden's life in 2015.
In that his father and brother were both involved in politics it appears from what was on Hunter's laptop that keeping the family in money fell to the youngest son. Was Hunter used as the frontman to collect money and take care of his family?
This text message to his daughter Naomi suggests that may be the case.
|Text message from Hunter Biden to his daughter Naomi|
You see something similar in another text message exchange with Naomi who was then a law student at Columbia and was pleading with her father (Hunter) to put emergency cash in her account.
This is from a Fox News story which wrote about the text exchange.
“Can you put 150 in my account it was just declined for lyft to airport sorry sorry sorry,” the now-26-year-old Columbia Law student asked.
“Yes I can but Naomi you really have to start to realize that once you are out of school the chances of you living like your father is a billionaire when he’s really given all his money away- is going to be a bit of a shock,” Hunter answered.
“I know I promise ill be much better this year!!!!!!!!!!! Promise,” Naomi wrote back.
You have to ask who exactly did Hunter give all his money away to?
What is clear from these text messages is that Hunter seems to have felt great pressure to produce for the family. That pressure seems to have fostered great resentment in Hunter. He also clearly believes he is under appreciated.
Perhaps these are the reasons that Hunter descended into the addiction issues he has had.
We still don't know how this is going to play out.
There is good reason that Joe Biden has put a lid on everything for four days in the home stretch of a Presidential campaign.
Biden is caught in a tough predicament in that he claims he never knew or discussed any of his son's foreign business interests with him. It appears that evidence is there to show that Hunter traded heavily on the Biden name, access and influence in return for the financial deals he got.
Joe needs to come up with an answer. His problem is that he is not completely certain what the questions will be once more of the contents of those emails are disclosed.
Will Joe attempt to throw Hunter under the bus in order to save his candidacy down the stretch? Is the only way out now to continue to claim he knew nothing about it but admit Hunter had possibly profited from his name? Biden might claim he is shocked at one he has discovered about his son but ask people to be sympathetic to him because of his addiction issues. Hunter only did what he did because of his addiction disease that he will now seek more treatment for.
I actually feel sorry for Hunter right now and concerned for him. He knows what is on that hard disk. It must not be easy to sleep or to face his father right now. It cannot be good considering his past troubles.
Is Joe Biden a decent man? I guess the voters will have to decide that for themselves.
However, looking at all of this you have to wonder why a decent man would have run in these circumstances if he were thinking about his son?
This is not going away for Hunter no matter what happens. In fact, the scrutiny and the consequences will be much greater for Hunter if Joe is elected than if he isn't.
Joe Biden knew his son was in a bad place with his addiction issues. He had to know that the millions of dollars that Hunter received for his foreign business deals were suspect even if he did not have his own hand in the till. He had to know what could happen to Hunter if it unraveled?
Decency? Why did Biden run? Was the fame and money worth more than his remaining son?
Think about that as you watch the debate and we see how this story unfolds.
Joe may survive. However, I am genuinely concerned about Hunter.
Where would the polls be if Covid never happened?
All of this takes us back to my original question?
Where would we be in this election if Covid had never happened?
The only real narrative would be Biden is normal and decent. Trump is dangerous and deranged.
What would the polls look like?
I don't imagine that they would be much different in that the media narrative over the last four years has been so repetitive and relentless. It has been consistent and it has been constant.
It is true that if you say anything long enough people will believe it even if the facts are totally the opposite. That is what propaganda is and why it has been used so effectively throughout human history.
Trump could have personally cured Covid, lowered the unemployment rate to 1% and won two Nobel peace prizes (one for his Middle East progress and another for reuniting North And South Korea) and he would still be vilified by the mainstream media.
For example, look at this collection of polls matching Trump and Biden in late February and early March.
They average Biden +8.4 before Covid.
The Real Clear Politics average right now is +8.6.
What does this tell us?
This election will be determined by what voters think, feel and believe about Donald Trump.
They have had four years to assess him and what he has done.
It appears nothing else matters. You could almost say that it is a referendum on Trump.
Biden is nothing but a side show and his handlers know it. Biden cannot help his cause. He can only hurt it. Therefore, keep him in his basement as much as possible.
Trump's RCP approval average right now is 44.5.
That is not great but notice that it is still higher than it has been for most of the last 3 years.
I pay the most attention to the Rasmussen approval poll because they poll every day. It is easier to assess trends. Trump is at 49% in that poll today. That is not the 50% or more you would like in a referendum election but it is exactly the same as Barack Obama's approval rating at the same point before his 2012 reelection win.
The voters have a very big decision before them.
May they choose wisely.
Their lives, livelihoods, liberty and the legacy of this country will be affected more by this decision than any other decision they will likely make in their entire life.