All of it was so predictable.
I am no prophet but I accurately forecasted exactly where we are right now in August in a blog post entitled, "Magnets for Fraud".
Our voting systems are not set up to handle volumes of ballots that are mailed in. All the systems (voting machines, poll workers etc) have been established for in-person voting where collecting and counting the votes is done with automated machines and identities can be checked (where voter ID is permitted) by poll workers. Even if voter ID is not required in a state, in-person voting requires a real person to show up in person at the polls which limits attempts at voter harvesting and other fraudulent acts.
Some argue that mail-in voting is no different than absentee voting. This could not be further from the truth. Absentee voting requires that the voter request a ballot. It also typically requires that some reason be given that the voter cannot vote in person. It also requires some form of ID so that identification can be confirmed (drivers license number, etc). A signature is required that is supposed to be matched to the voter rolls.
Absentee ballots have also typically made up less than 20% of the ballots in an election year. They were 17.7% of all votes cast in 2016.
Moving to mail-in ballots when the entire voting system and infrastructure is geared to in-person voting is an invitation for fraud every bit in line with the unemployment benefits fraud seen in Ohio this year.
To insure the integrity of the election it would be necessary to have scores of people opening the mail, tabulating results and verifying signatures and voter id's against the registration rolls. It would be many times more laborious than the current system and require more time.
It would also almost guarantee that we would not have election results for days or weeks after the election day.
Mail-in voting (or something more sophisticated technologically) is something that may make sense in the future.
However, it must be accompanied by changes in the systems and election infrastructure that have been developed to service in-person voting over a period of years. It is not realistic that it could be changed in a matter of a couple of months without confusion and chaos occurring. I can think of nothing worse happening in a year when the integrity of the vote is so important to gain public trust.
One requirement that I believe is absolutely necessary in mail-in voting is that the votes must be in hand at the Elections Board by election day. Voters deserve to know the final results on election day and not days or weeks later as we have seen in some of the mail-in states like California and New York where ballots are coming in days after the elections. Allowing votes to come in and be counted after initial results have been tabulated is another invitation for fraud.
Prospects for President Trump's re-election look bleak right now.
Recounts may be conducted but they are not intended to uncover fraud in voting. A recount is merely intended to make sure that the votes were correctly tabulated.
A recount is not going to tell you if the vote itself was legitimate.
Was the vote cast by a U.S citizen?
Was the vote cast by a legal resident of the state?
Was the registered voter actually the person who cast the vote?
Did the votes of one party never get put into the system?
Was one party allowed to cure errors in mail-in ballots but it was not allowed by the other party?
Was there some digital manipulation of the voting machine tabulation system?
In order for President Trump to have any chance at prevailing it appears that some evidence of suspected systemic fraud must be produced.
That is not easy to prove although there are already instances where everything that I have cited above has occurred somewhere in the battleground states.
Short of a miracle, I just don't see where that evidence is going to come from.
The other problem is that in a situation like this possession is 99% of the law. The votes are on the record for Biden. It is a high burden to overcome that unless there is compelling evidence of real fraud. It would take a lot for a judge or state legislator to throw out votes that are already on the record no matter how illegitimate they may be.
Some in the Republican party are suggesting that President Trump should graciously concede defeat and make plans for the transition of power. That would be good advice if there was no evidence of fraud. I don't know the specifics of what the Trump campaign may have in that regard.
However, if they have any reasonable basis that fraud was involved Trump should not concede an inch. It would be a disservice to the 70 million people who voted for him and it would also be negligent to not confront any evidence of fraud as election integrity is the foundation of our entire government system. Without it, nothing is legitimate.
I have written before about some of the voting numbers that come out of inner city precincts.
The numbers themselves suggest fraud for no other reason that it is hard to imagine that in any human endeavor on any subject you could find this much unanimity on any subject or issue.
For example, consider these vote totals for six inner city voting precincts in Cincinnati, Ohio in the 2016 Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
Cincinnati Precinct 13A- Obama 1,080 votes, Romney 5 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 15C- Obama 703 votes, Romney 4 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 22C- Obama 859 votes, Romney 8 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 24H- Obama 336 votes, Romney 1 vote
Cincinnati Precinct 24I- Obama 407 votes, Romney 2 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 26H- Obama 455 votes, Romney 2 votes
In those 6 precincts Obama got 99.5% of the vote.
You would think that with this many ballots you would have more people mark the ballot incorrectly for Romney by error than the number of votes he actually received.
I wrote at that time that this might not represent voting fraud but it makes you wonder how one demographic group can have their vote almost totally defined by race.
There are rich and poor African Americans. Males and females. College graduates and high school drop outs. Evangelicals and atheists. Families and single households.
You don't see anything like this with any other demographic group.
I compared that vote with the 2016 vote in Cincinnati's wealthiest suburb, Indian Hill.Indian Hill is generally considered a bastion of wealthy, white, privileged Republicans in Cincinnati. In fact, the zip code that includes Indian Hill donated more money to Romney than any other in the entire state of Ohio.
What were the vote totals in Indian Hill between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney?
Indian Hill Precincts- Romney 3,434, Obama 1,406
In those 6 precincts Romney got 71.0% of the vote.
I can understand 71.0%. I don't fathom 99.5%.
Cincinnati Precinct 13A- Biden 490 votes, Trump 16 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 15C- Biden 414 votes, Trump 21 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 22C- Biden 420 votes, Trump 18 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 24H- Biden 128 votes, Trump 9 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 24I- Biden 214 votes, Trump 5 votes
Cincinnati Precinct 26H- Biden 229 votes, Trump 22 votes
In those 6 precincts Biden got 91.2% of the vote instead of the 99.5% Obama received.